This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both Miami Open men's semifinals will be played Friday. Three of the top four seeds remain in the draw, and if not for Grigor Dimitrov's quarterfinal upset win over Carlos Alcaraz, the top four seeds would have reached the Miami Open semifinals for the first time in tournament history. Both semifinal clashes features players that are intimately familiar with each other's games, and one is a rematch of the Australian Open final.
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All men's singles matches at Masters 1000 events are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
Miami Open Odds: Sinner vs. Medvedev
Jannik Sinner (-205) vs. Daniil Medvedev (+170)
Sinner defeated Medvedev in the Australian Open championship match, coming back from two sets to love down as Sinner settled down in his first career Grand Slam final while Medvedev ran out of gas after a grueling path to the final. Overall, Sinner has won their last four matches, but Medvedev still leads the overall head-to-head 6-4. Sinner's lone loss in 2024 came to Carlos Alcaraz in the Indian Wells semifinals, so it makes sense that he's the clear favorite in this match. The second-seeded Italian has had a relatively easy path to the semis. The only seed Sinner has faced is No. 25 seed Tallon Griekspoor, who put up a surprisingly strong fight before Sinner ultimately escaped with a 5-7, 7-5, 6-1 win. The elbow and wrist injuries Sinner sustained after a fall against Alcaraz in Indian Wells don't seem to be bothering him whatsoever here.
Medvedev has taken Sinner to a deciding set in three of the four losses, and the other loss was 7-6, 7-6, so it's not like the Russian hasn't been competitive. Medvedev has also arguably played better so far in this tournament, as he's yet to drop a set or more than eight games in a match. While his draw has also been relatively easy, Medvedev has faced two seeded opponents, including No. 22 seed Nicolas Jarry in the quarterfinals. Both Medvedev and Sinner like relatively speedy hard courts like the ones in Miami. Ultimately, Medvedev will have to go out of his comfort zone and not allow Sinner to consistently dictate play from the baseline without fear of the Russian stepping in, but Medvedev has shown in recent years he can beat anybody on his best days, especially on hard courts. Sinner's rightfully favored, but this is anybody's match.
Miami Open prediction: Medvedev def. Sinner 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
Miami Open Odds: Zverev vs. Dimitrov
Alexander Zverev (-155) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (+130)
Zverev has been perhaps the most impressive player in the draw so far, as he has yet to drop a set en route to the semifinals. The No. 4 seed capitalized on Novak Djokovic's (personal) absence here, getting a section of the draw to himself. He was gearing up to face Alcaraz again after beating the Spaniard in the Australian Open quarterfinals and losing to Alcaraz in the Indian Wells quarterfinals, but Zverev will instead face Dimitrov, against whom the German is 7-1. Zverev has won his last seven encounters with the Bulgarian after dropping their first meeting as a 17-year-old in 2014, and this is a comfortable stylistic matchup for Zverev. Dimitrov will try to get in as many forehand-to-forehand rallies as possible, but with a far superior serve, backhand, and defense, Zverev has a lot more options for getting the upper hand.
Dimitrov is enjoying a resurgent season at age 32, and he'll deservedly be back in the top 10 after this tournament. He's off to a 19-4 start in 2024 and is coming off a 6-2, 6-4 quarterfinal win over Alcaraz, which came on the heels of a third-set tiebreak victory over Hubert Hurkacz, by the end of which Dimitrov barely had enough energy to celebrate. This is far from uncharted territory for Dimitrov, who is a three-time Grand Slam semifinalist, has won an ATP Finals and a Masters 1000, and reached the final of a Masters 1000 as recently as last year. It took a special performance to beat Alcaraz, and it will take another one to defeat Zverev, whom Dimitrov hasn't beaten in nearly a decade. With a forehand as lethal as Dimitrov's, anything is possible, and he has been locked in all tournament, dropping serve only twice in four matches.
Miami Open prediction: Zverev def. Dimitrov 6-4, 7-6
