This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Wednesday's action at the Miami Open will feature quarterfinal play in both the men's and women's singles draws, with two matches apiece. Knocking off one of the big names on the men's side would require a monumental effort, while both underdogs on the women's side have already pulled numerous upsets in this tournament.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Caroline Garcia (+170) vs. Danielle Collins
It's surprising that Garcia's such a substantial underdog coming off consecutive wins against Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff. Both Garcia and Collins love to step in and take charge on the return, so neither can afford a poor performance on serve. Garcia has done a better job taking care of her serve in this tournament, as the former world No. 4 has been broken only three times in three matches, and she aced Osaka 12 times. Collins also had 12 aces in her first-round win over American compatriot Bernarda Pera, but they were accompanied by nine double faults, and Collins has less margin for error on her serve. While Collins' No. 53 ranking doesn't do her justice, she seems miscast as the clear favorite here, even given her 3-0 career head-to-head edge over Garcia.
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Daniil Medvedev (-525) vs. Nicolas Jarry
Jarry has done well to reach his second career Masters 1000 quarterfinal here, and the No. 22 seed is coming off an impressive 7-6 (3), 6-3 win over Casper Ruud. While Ruud's a tough out on this surface, Medvedev is a different beast. Ruud made the 2022 US Open final but hasn't been past the fourth round of a hard-court Grand Slam, while Medvedev has reached at least the semis in seven of the last 10 hard-court majors. The 6-foot-6 Medvedev's reach and anticipation should help him get plenty of returns in play against Jarry's big serve, and the fourth-ranked Russian has an excellent serve of his own to rely upon. Medvedev won their only previous encounter in straight sets on clay, and the gap between these two is much larger on hard courts.
Honorable Mention
Jannik Sinner (-800) vs. Tomas Machac
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Ekaterina Alexandrova (+150) vs. Jessica Pegula
Alexandrova's coming off the best win of her career -- a 6-4, 6-2 drubbing of world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the Round of 16. Pegula's flatter strokes present a different challenge than Swiatek's spinnier shots, but Alexandrova's power and aggressive court positioning should allow her to dictate play, just as she did in the previous round. Given her current mix of rhythm and confidence, the 14th-seeded Alexandrova's a nice value against the modestly favored No. 5 seed, even though Pegula looks to have finally found her form at this tournament after posting a pedestrian 6-4 record in 2024 heading into the Miami Open.
