This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Play at the Miami Open is close to getting back on schedule Sunday after rain wreaked havoc on the previous few days' order of play, but some men's second-round matches still need to be completed Sunday in addition to the regularly scheduled third-round clashes on both the men's and women's side. Former world No. 1 players on both the men's and women's side will look to summon up slivers of their former glory and continue advancing despite being unseeded here, while an upstart American has a nice opportunity to keep his Cinderella run alive.
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All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Martin Damm (+215) vs. Christopher O'Connell
Damm has been lucky to get to the third round in his first career ATP main draw event, as he was down a set in the second round to Tommy Paul when Paul had to retire with an ankle injury, but Damm now has a golden opportunity in front of him to keep advancing against the 66th-ranked O'Connell. The 6-foot-8 American's serve is pretty Damm hard to return, so this match could well come down to a few key points late in sets, much like many of John Isner's matches used to. With most of the pressure on O'Connell, Damm can swing freely in those big moments, just as he did when he upset Zhizhen Zhang 7-6 (2), 7-6 (3) in the first round. O'Connell's just 8-6 on the year, including a loss to 191st-ranked Billy Harris, so the Aussie is certainly beatable.
Dominik Koepfer (+240) vs. Ugo Humbert
Both of these players are having solid seasons, as the 50th-ranked Koepfer's 7-5 on the ATP Tour and has also won a Challenger in 2024, while Humbert has already won two titles en route to a 15-4 start. All but one of the 15th-ranked Humbert's losses have come to players ranked outside the top 50, so the 25-year-old Frenchman has been susceptible to some letdowns, and Humbert's unproven at the biggest tournaments. Humbert has been past the third round of a Grand Slam or Masters 1000 event only three times in his career.
Honorable Mention
Leylah Fernandez (+210) vs. Jessica Pegula
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Daniil Medvedev (-600) vs. Cameron Norrie
This should be a comfortable matchup for the fourth-ranked Medvedev, as the 31st-ranked Norrie lacks the weapons to hit through the lanky Russian's defense. Both of their previous meetings came on hard courts, and Medvedev came away with two straight-sets wins while dropping just nine games total. Medvedev will have plenty of gas in the tank coming off a 6-4, 6-2 win over Marton Fucsovics yesterday, while Norrie had to spend significantly more time in the humid Miami conditions to overcome Flavio Cobolli 7-5, 6-7 (4), 6-2.
Naomi Osaka (-250) vs. Caroline Garcia
Osaka isn't all the way back to the form that helped her win four hard-court Grand Slams before she got pregnant, but this is the closest we have seen her to that level. The former world No. 1 is 6-2 in her last three tournaments, a stretch that started with a 7-5, 6-4 win over Garcia in Doha. Osaka spends significant time in Miami and even owns a Miami-based pickleball team, and her last WTA Tour final came at the 2022 Miami Open, so she feels right at home here, while Garcia's just 3-5 in her last eight matches. Garcia beat Osaka at the Australian Open, but that was Osaka's third match back after a 15-month layoff, so Osaka's in far better form now and has already avenged that loss.
Honorable Mention
Grigor Dimitrov (-450) vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-175) vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
Pavlyuchenkova has been in far better form this year, despite being ranked six spots back of her Russian compatriot Alexandrova. The 22nd-ranked veteran has a 17-7 record, including four top-15 wins. The 16th-ranked Alexandrova hasn't played up to her ranking this year, with a pedestrian 9-7 record. Their head-to-head is split 1-1, but Alexandrova's win came back in 2018, while Pavlyuchenkova notched a 6-2, 7-5 win on a hard court in Tokyo less than six months ago.
Andy Murray (+130) vs. Tomas Machac
Machac won their only previous meeting earlier this year 7-5, 6-4 on the indoor hard courts of Marseille, but Murray will look to use the outdoor conditions to his advantage in the rematch. The former world No. 1 is far from his peak form, but Murray's a master strategist and will adjust his tactics for this rematch. Machac is looking to get past the third round of a Masters 1000 event for the first time, and the 23-year-old Czech is coming off an upset win over No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev, but Murray presents a far different challenge than the big-hitting Russian did, as the Brit will move the ball around and consistently put Machac in uncomfortable positions. With experience and the crowd on his side, Murray won't go down easily in what's likely his last run at the Miami Open.
Honorable Mention
Daniel Altmaier (+140) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
