This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the French Open is expected to conclude Tuesday. The final batch of first-round matches has no shortage of exciting matchups. A pair of French veterans will try to triumph as underdogs and set the French crowd into a frenzy. Additionally, a player who has quietly been one of the strongest performers on the WTA Tour over the last couple months will look to keep the good times rolling, while a battle between countrymen from a nation that produces plenty of strong clay-courters is likely to go the younger man's way.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
French Open Picks: Upset Alert
Alize Cornet (+950) vs. Qinwen Zheng
Cornet's a massive underdog against the seventh-seeded Zheng, but don't be too quick to write off the French giant killer, who has registered numerous big wins in a Grand Slam career that dates back to the 2005 French Open and has compiled 25 top-10 wins overall. It would be fitting for the 34-year-old Frenchwoman to add one more big scalp to her collection in what Cornet has announced will be the last tournament of her career. Cornet will be swinging freely and have the crowd's backing against Zheng, who has a pedestrian 8-7 record since a breakout performance at the Australian Open, where Zheng reached the final without having to beat a top-50 opponent.
Adrian Mannarino (+290) vs. Giulio Zeppieri
Mannarino's just 7-12 in 2024, as he appears to be falling off at age 35, but the veteran Frenchman is a nice value here against an unheralded opponent. Zeppieri is just 1-4 in ATP main draw-level matches this year and 5-13 in his career. Overall, the 148th-ranked Italian has eight losses to players ranked outside the top 100 in 2024. For all of Mannarino's struggles this year, he showed he still has the supreme fitness needed to excel in best-of-five set play, winning three five-setters at the Australian Open this year. Mannarino's strong second half of 2023 coupled with that run down under has him ranked 22nd, which is 88 spots above Zeppieri's career high.
Honorable Mention
Adam Walton (+390) vs. Arthur Rinderknech
French Open Odds: Lock It In
Elise Mertens (-225) vs. Maria Carle
Few players on the WTA Tour have been better at avoiding upsets at majors than Mertens, who has reached at least the third round in 23 of 24 Grand Slam appearances since the start of 2018, with only one first-round loss over that span. The No. 25 seed will likely avoid a letdown against the 82nd-ranked Carle, who has split her 2024 season between WTA Tour and ITF level events. Carle has struggled when faced with higher-level competition, going 4-5 against players ranked in the top 105 in 2024, with just two wins over players ranked in the top 88.
Petra Martic (-550) vs. Kristina Mladenovic
Mladenovic is still a decent doubles player, but the 31-year-old Frenchwoman has been a non-factor in singles for a while now, having dropped out of the top 200 in the rankings. You have to go all the way back to July of 2022 for Mladenovic's last win over a top-70 opponent, and her last top-50 win came more than a year prior to that, so she's far from the player that reached the French Open quarterfinals in 2017. Martic has struggled to a 5-10 record in 2024, but the 81st-ranked Croatian is 15-5 in Grand Slam first-round matches since the start of 2019, which is the year Martic reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros. Despite Martic's poor form this year, there's still a substantial gap between her and Mladenovic at this point. These two veterans have met nine times before, with Martic holding a 7-2 head-to-head edge.
Honorable Mention
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-475) vs. Valentin Vacherot
French Open Predictions: Value Bets
Jaume Munar (-145) vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
Bautista Agut is the far more accomplished of these two Spanish compatriots, but Munar is the better player at this stage of their respective careers. Munar is a .500 career player on clay, including a 9-8 ATP Tour record on the surface this year, which doesn't include a challenger in France last month in which Munar beat three top-51 players to reach the final before losing to the red-hot Alejandro Tabilo. The 36-year-old Bautista Agut is nine years Munar's senior and has dipped to 80th in the rankings, 17 spots back of Munar. Including Challengers and qualifying, RBA is just 7-12 against top-80 opponents in 2024.
Yulia Putintseva (-135) vs. Sloane Stephens
Putintseva has enjoyed a strong last two months, reaching WTA-1000 level quarterfinals in both Miami and Madrid, with the latter result coming on clay. She knocked off two top-10 seeds in Madrid, beating Qinwen Zheng and Daria Kasatkina. Putintseva added a 6-3, 6-2 win over Stephens at the Italian Open after that Madrid run, and she'll be looking for a repeat result in this rematch less than three weeks later. Stephens has the greater pedigree as a former French Open finalist (2018), and the American is ranked 35th, which is four spots ahead of Putintseva. Recent trends suggest this is Putintseva's match to lose, though, as Stephens comes into the French Open on a four-match losing streak.
Honorable Mention
Tomas Machac (-155) vs. Nuno Borges
