The men's and women's championship matches at the Cincinnati Open will be played Monday. Jannik Sinner will be looking for his fifth title of 2024 in the men's final against Frances Tiafoe, who is in his first career Masters 1000 final. In the women's final, Aryna Sabalenka is trying to continue her dominance on fast hard courts, but she'll need to cool off the red-hot Jessica Pegula to do so. Can either American underdog thrill the crowd, or will chalk prevail as the two 2024 Australian Open champions look to add to their trophy cases?
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All men's and women's singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in the men's and women's championship matches.
Cincinnati Open Odds: Sabalenka vs. Pegula
Aryna Sabalenka (-240) vs. Jessica Pegula (+195)
Nobody on the WTA Tour is better on a fast hard court than Sabalenka when she's on her game, and the winner of the last two Australian Opens proved that again in Sunday's convincing 6-3, 6-3 win over world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. The Belarusian's strong tournament here has propelled her to No. 2 in the live rankings, and the shoulder injury that kept her out of Wimbledon is starting to look like a distant memory. Sabalenka has a 4-2 career head-to-head edge over Pegula.
Pegula has been the hottest player on the WTA Tour over the past couple weeks, as she's in the Cincinnati Open final after winning another hard-court WTA 1000 event at the Canadian Open last week. All told, the sixth-ranked American is on a nine-match winning streak, and she would leapfrog Jasmine Paolini into fifth in the rankings with a win Monday. Pegula has benefited from some favorable draws during her winning streak, though, as it doesn't include any victories over top-20 competition. The step up in opponent difficulty will be tough for Pegula to overcome after she just squeaked by 26th-ranked Leylah Fernandez and 36th-ranked Paula Badosa 7-6 in the third and 6-3 in the third, respectively, in her last two matches.
Cincinnati Open Women's Final Prediction: Sabalenka def. Pegula 6-4, 6-4
Cincinnati Open Odds: Sinner vs. Tiafoe
Jannik Sinner (-330) vs. Frances Tiafoe (+245)
Sinner has been the world's best hard-court player in 2024, with a sparkling 31-2 record on the surface. The world No. 1 is coming off a thrilling semifinal victory over fourth-ranked Alexander Zverev, 7-6 (9), 5-7, 7-6 (4). Sinner leads the head-to-head against Tiafoe 3-1, with all four meetings coming on indoor hard courts (Cincinnati is an outdoor venue). Their only meeting since 2021 went to Sinner 6-3, 6-4 in Vienna last year. Sinner's superior backhand and ability to maintain his level throughout the match could prove to be the difference Monday.
This isn't Tiafoe's first impressive run on American hard courts, as the Maryland native reached the semifinals of the U.S. Open in 2022 and Indian Wells in 2023. Tiafoe has climbed back up to 20th in the live rankings by reaching the final here, which is impressive considering he didn't even have a top-20 win in 2024 until less than a month ago. He has three such wins at this tournament, though Tiafoe's only top-10 win in Cincainnati came against Hubert Hurkacz, who retired after dropping the first set. While Tiafoe has the tools to make this match competitive, namely a big serve and forehand that play up in these quick conditions, his 11-35 career record against top-10 players suggests this will be an uphill battle for the American underdog.
Cincinnati Open Men's Final Prediction: Sinner def. Tiafoe 7-6, 4-6, 6-2
