This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells women's semifinals will be played Friday. The top seed has yet to drop a set in this tournament heading into a matchup against an improving young player who is in her first WTA 1000 semifinal, while a pair of top-10 seeds will face off in the other semifinal. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
Indian Wells Odds: Swiatek vs. Kostyuk
Iga Swiatek (-1000) vs. Marta Kostyuk (+650)
Swiatek's game is best suited for clay, but it also works wonderfully on slower hard courts like the ones at Indian Wells, so it's hardly surprising that she boasts a 14-1 record at this event since the start of the 2022 tournament, with a semifinal loss to Elena Rybakina in last year's semifinal representing the lone blemish for the world No. 1. Swiatek's last 10 wins at Indian Wells have all come in straight sets, and while she has briefly shown signs of vulnerability in a couple of her matches here, none of those rough patches have lasted more than a few games. It has taken Kostyuk longer to develop into a top player while Swiatek has already been at the top of the game for a while, but the 22-year-old Swiatek is actually only a year older than her opponent here, though the four-time Grand Slam champion has a massive edge in big-match experience.
Kostyuk has looked like a legitimate top-10 player in 2024. She's 12-3 since the start of the Australian Open, and the moment hasn't proven too big for her in previous milestone matches. Kostyuk pushed Coco Gauff to the limit down under in what was the Ukrainian's first career Grand Slam quarterfinal, as Gauff needed over three hours to come away with a 7-6 (6), 6-7 (3), 6-2 victory, and Kostyuk's first WTA 1000 quarterfinal resulted in Thursday's 6-0, 7-5 win over Anastasia Potapova. Kostyuk's lone previous meeting with Swiatek was a 6-3, 6-4 loss at the 2021 French Open, but the Ukrainian's a far better player now than she was then, and this rematch being on hard court rather than clay is also advantageous for Kostyuk. While Kostyuk has enough power and movement to hang in baseline rallies with Swiatek, she probably won't win enough of them playing with her usual margins, so Kostyuk will need to redline her game and aim closer to the lines than usual to have a chance.
Indian Wells prediction: Swiatek def. Kostyuk 7-5, 6-2
Indian Wells Odds: Gauff vs. Sakkari
Coco Gauff (-285) vs. Maria Sakkari (+225)
Outside of a 6-0, 6-2 third-round demolition of Elise Mertens on the day Gauff celebrated her 20th birthday Wednesday, Gauff has been far from her best in this tournament. The fact that she has dropped only one set despite playing subpar tennis is a testament to just how high the 2023 US Open champion's floor is at this point. Her 6-4, 6-3 quarterfinal win over Yue Yuan looked nice at first glance, but blustery conditions had a major impact on Gauff's serve, as she finished with 17 double faults. This is the third-seeded American's match to lose, but Gauff will have a much tougher time advancing in her first matchup with a top-20 opponent if she donates as many free points to Sakkari as she has to most of her other opponents in this tournament.
It's hard to believe that just two years ago, Sakkari was playing Swiatek in the final of this tournament with the No. 2 ranking on the line. World No. 1 Ashleigh Barty would announce her retirement later that same month, so Sakkari would have become No. 1 in the world had she won that match. Instead, Swiatek seized the top spot and has been the player to beat on the WTA Tour ever since, while Sakkari has gone through some ups and downs. The Athenian's ranking has slipped to No. 9, but Sakkari seems to be experiencing a resurgence under new coach David Witt, who previously took Jessica Pegula from No. 79 to No. 3 in the rankings. This will also be a major step up in opponent difficulty for Sakkari, who has needed three sets in three of her four matches here despite facing nobody seeded higher than 20th. Sakkari leads the head-to-head against Gauff 4-3, but both of their 2023 meetings were straight-sets Gauff victories on hard courts.
Indian Wells prediction: Gauff def. Sakkari 7-6, 4-6, 6-3
