This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells men's semifinals will be played Saturday. Three of the four chalk options have made it this far. One semifinal is a must-see matchup between the game's two youngest bright stars, while the other pits a defense-first favorite against an aggressive American underdog who has been deep in big hard-court events before. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All men's singles matches at Masters 1000 events are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
Indian Wells Odds: Sinner vs. Alcaraz
Jannik Sinner (-145) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (+115)
The 22-year-old Sinner and the 20-year-old Alcaraz have already developed a healthy rivalry, and the world No. 2 ranking will be on the line when the two young superstars face off for the eighth time. Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the semifinals here en route to the title last year, but Sinner has won both of their subsequent encounters to pull ahead 4-3 in their head-to-head. Sinner has the more polished game at this stage of their respective careers, and he's currently riding a 19-match winning streak, with seven of those matches comprising the Italian's first Grand Slam title at this year's Australian Open.
One key factor could prove advantageous for Alcaraz here: for the first time in this rivalry, most of the pressure is on Sinner. Despite being two years younger, Alcaraz jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the Grand Slam count, and the Spaniard has been the face of tennis' next generation. Now, the ice-cold dominance of Sinner is sharing the spotlight with the fiery showmanship of Alcaraz, and Sinner's the one riding a lengthy win streak and with a chance to climb to a new career high in the rankings. Alcaraz has looked a bit out of sorts since winning Wimbledon, but his elite athleticism and touch shine through most on slower courts such as clay and the gritty Indian Wells hard courts, so it's no surprise that he has found something closer to his top form at this tournament. While Alcaraz can match Sinner for power, the Spaniard's path to victory lies through his creativity, as Sinner's superior shot selection gives him an advantage when these two stick to exchanging blows from the baseline.
Indian Wells prediction: Alcaraz def. Sinner 4-6, 7-6, 7-6
Indian Wells Odds: Medvedev vs. Paul
Daniil Medvedev (-270) vs. Tommy Paul (+215)
Medvedev's almost a lock for at least the semis in every big hard-court event, so it's no surprise to see the 2023 Indian Wells runner-up one match from returning to the final. Paul's American compatriot Sebastian Korda is the only player who has managed to take a set off the the fourth-seeded Russian in this tournament. Medvedev has occasionally struggled to generate pace, especially when the balls fluff up in the last couple games before ball changes, but the master tactician has played the cat-and-mouse game perfectly, at times goading opponents into errors with defense and at other times surprising them by coming forward. Medvedev has a 2-0 head-to-head edge over Paul, including a convincing 6-2, 6-1 win in their only hard-court meeting, last year in Beijing.
Paul may not be a semifinal regular like Medvedev, but this isn't the American's first rodeo, as he reached the semis of both the Australian Open (Grand Slam) and Canadian Open (Masters 1000) last year. Paul has made a concerted effort to come to net more in order to make better use of his tremendous athleticism, and that skill will be pivotal in this matchup, as cutting off angles and taking time away is essential to penetrating Medvedev's defense, as is moving the Russian north-south in addition to east-west. Medvedev is often content to just roll the ball back in, so Paul will need to be patient, using his beautiful backhand to get the upper hand in rallies while picking his spots with his less consistent forehand. With the right tactics and a good serving day, Paul has the skills to pull off the upset, but putting the whole package together is easier said than done.
Indian Wells prediction: Medvedev def. Paul 7-6, 6-4
