This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The men's and women's championship matches at the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells are both on the docket Sunday. Both are rematches of recent Indian Wells championship matches, with the previous victors favored once again. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All men's and women's singles matches at Masters 1000 events are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
Indian Wells Odds: Swiatek vs. Sakkari
Iga Swiatek (-575) vs. Maria Sakkari (+425)
Swiatek is looking for her second Indian Wells title in the last three years, and she defeated Sakkari in the 2022 championship match. Both players have thrived in these conditions in recent years, having made the semifinals or better in each of the past three years. Swiatek has yet to drop a set in this tournament, but she also hasn't faced a top-25 seed en route to the final. Sakkari has been pushed to three sets in four of her five matches, including Friday's 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-2 win over Coco Gauff.
Sakkari actually leads their head-to-head 3-2, as the ninth-ranked Grecian notched a trio of straight-sets wins in 2021 before Swiatek answered with two straight-sets victories in 2022, including the 2022 Indian Wells final. The top-ranked Swiatek is rightfully favored heading into their sixth matchup, but Sakkari is the better value bet as a significant underdog given how battle-tested she is. If this final goes three sets, the advantage could shift Sakkari's way, but getting to that point won't be easy against the dominant Swiatek.
Indian Wells prediction: Swiatek def. Sakkari 6-4, 7-6
Indian Wells Odds: Alcaraz vs. Medvedev
Carlos Alcaraz (-245) vs. Daniil Medvedev (+195)
Alcaraz hasn't won a title since Wimbledon, but the reigning Indian Wells champion has found his mojo during his title defense. Since losing the first set of his first match here to Matteo Arnaldi, Alcaraz has won 10 of 11 subsequent sets while dropping three or fewer games in each of the sets he won. He lost the first set to Jannik Sinner in the semifinals but came back to hand Sinner his first loss of 2024, 1-6, 6-3, 6-2. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head against Medvedev 3-2, including a 6-3, 6-2 win in last year's Indian Wells championship match, when Alcaraz's versatile offensive repertoire overcame Medvedev's defensive skills, while the Russian failed to hit through the speedy Spaniard on these gritty hard courts.
Medvedev played his best match of the year to beat Alcaraz at the 2023 US Open, so he's certainly capable of winning this match, but it will take another superb effort. Serving well and getting on the front foot when possible will be key for Medvedev to keep this match for competitive, as he can't afford to hang back and let Alcaraz get in rhythm. The Russian was on the ropes against Tommy Paul in the semis but came back for a 1-6, 7-6 (3), 6-2 victory. Prior to that match, Medvedev hadn't dropped a set in this tournament.
Indian Wells prediction: Alcaraz def. Medvedev 6-3, 6-4
