This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first Grand Slam of 2024 begins Sunday, January 14 from the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Australia, which will be Saturday night in the United States. Defending champion Novak Djokovic is searching for an 11th Australian Open title, but Carlos Alcaraz ended Djokovic's lengthy Wimbledon winning streak last year, and the Spaniard will look to do the same in his return to the Australian Open after missing last year's tournament. The women's draw has numerous players with realistic title aspirations here, including world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and defending Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka, who is ranked No. 2.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at the Australian Open, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Rafael Nadal (hip) began his comeback in January but will miss the Australian Open due to a micro tear in a muscle near his surgically repaired hip. Nick Kyrgios (wrist), Pablo Carreno Busta (elbow), Aslan Karatsev (knee), Kei Nishikori (knee) and Reilly Opelka (shoulder/heel/hip) remain sidelined on the men's side, while Karolina Muchova (wrist), Petra Kvitova (pregnancy), Madison Keys (shoulder), Bianca Andreescu (back), Garbine Muguruza (personal) and Jennifer Brady (knee) will sit out on the women's side. Additionally, Jenson Brooksby and Simona Halep are serving suspensions. Wimbledon ladies' champion Marketa Vondrousova has been battling a hip injury but is in the Australian Open draw.
Both the men's and women's draws have four players with significantly shorter odds than the rest of the field. Djokovic is the clear favorite, followed by Alcaraz, while nobody else besides Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev has been given much of a chance to win. Swiatek is a far less prohibitive favorite than Djokovic, but she still clearly has the best odds, followed by Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff before a substantial drop off to the rest of the field. After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (DK), FanDuel Sportsbook (FD), and BetMGM (BetMGM) in that order. Caesars Sportsbook's Australian Open futures weren't available at press time, but odds for individual first-round matches have been posted. The odds can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple betting platforms. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook.
Australian Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Novak Djokovic [DK: (+100), FD: (+100), BetMGM: (+105)] - Djokovic already has a record 10 Australian Open titles under his belt, and he won three of the four Grand Slams in 2023 to push his career total up to a record 24. He's nursing a wrist injury but that's unlikely to deter the 36-year-old Serb, who won last year's Australian Open while playing through a hamstring tear. The top seed's draw isn't particularly daunting, though it includes a potential US Open semifinal rematch with Ben Shelton in the Round of 16 and a possible rematch of the 2023 Australian Open final with Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals.
In the Mix
Carlos Alcaraz [DK: (+350), FD: (+350), BetMGM: (+333)] - Alcaraz is the only man who beat Djokovic at a Grand Slam last year, handing Djokovic his first Wimbledon loss since 2017 in an epic final. If they meet in the final here, the 20-year-old Spaniard would have an opportunity to end an Australian Open winning streak that dates back to 2018 for Djokovic. Alcaraz didn't play here last year due to an injury, so he has won two of his last four Grand Slam tournaments entered (2022 US Open and 2023 Wimbledon), with Djokovic winning all the other majors over that period. The No. 2 seed could have an opportunity to avenge his 2023 US Open semifinal loss to Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals here, while his biggest potential obstacles before that point are 2023 Australian Open semifinalist Tommy Paul and former US Open finalist Alexander Zverev.
Jannik Sinner [DK: (+700), FD: (+600), BetMGM: (+650)] - Sinner's Grand Slam results have been a bit underwhelming, with just one semifinal to date, but the 22-year-old Italian should be a consistent contender late in majors in 2024. He has a 4-3 career head-to-head edge over Alcaraz and finally notched his first two wins over Djokovic during the indoor hard court swing to finish off 2023. The No. 4 seed has a manageable route to the semifinals on paper -- Andrey Rublev, Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov and Frances Tiafoe are the four highest-ranked players in his path, and he could face at most two of them. Sinner's serving numbers ticked up indoors, which helped finally push him over the finish line against Djokovic, but unless inclement weather or extreme heat leads to the roof closing at Rod Laver Arena, he would need to overcome the outdoor elements to top Djokovic in a possible semifinal matchup.
Daniil Medvedev [DK: (+1000), FD: (+1100), BetMGM: (+900)] - Medvedev played his best match of the year to beat Alcaraz in the 2023 US Open semifinal, but he had an underwhelming season outside of that match. That disappointing 2023 included a third-round loss at the Australian Open after back-to-back final appearances. He has also played in three of the last five US Open finals, winning one, so there's no denying his hard court bona fides. Medvedev's still in his prime at age 27, so while Sinner and Alcaraz are the sexy picks to stop Djokovic, Medvedev shouldn't be overlooked. The Australian Open hard courts play significantly faster than those at the US Open, which will make it tough for Medvedev to repeat his success against the far more aggressive Alcaraz in a potential semifinal rematch here. Medvedev has some dangerous opponents in his section, including Holger Rune, Hubert Hurkacz and the surging Grigor Dimitrov, but the lanky Russian is still the clear player to beat in his section of the draw.
There is an even larger drop off in title odds after Sinner and Medvedev than the one after Alcaraz, which isn't surprising given the top-heavy state of the men's game. The next tier of contenders consists of Alexander Zverev [DK: (+2500), FD: (+2800), BetMGM: (+2500)], Alex de Minaur [DK: (+2800), FD: (+2500), BetMGM: (+2800)], Holger Rune [DK: (+3000), FD: (+3100), BetMGM: (+3300)], Grigor Dimitrov [DK: (+4000), FD: (+4200), BetMGM: (+4000)] and Stefanos Tsitsipas [DK: (+5000), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+4000)]. Zverev has made at least the semifinals at a Grand Slam on six occasions and won gold at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021. It feels like the sixth-seeded German has been around forever, but he's still only 26 years old, and Zverev has a clear path to the quarterfinals, though he would be a substantial underdog against Alcaraz in that round if chalk holds. Crowd support has helped fuel de Minaur to an electric start to 2024 in his home country. The 24-year-old Aussie notched wins over Djokovic, Zverev and Taylor Fritz at the United Cup, in addition to winning an exhibition match over Alcaraz recently, so nobody's hotter heading into this tournament than the No. 10 seed.
Rune had an inconsistent 2023 in which his body occasionally let him down, but the 20-year-old Dane has plenty of time to maximize his fitness and is in the conversation with Alcaraz and Sinner among the game's biggest next-gen stars. Seeded eighth here, Rune could face Medvedev in the quarterfinals. Dimitrov's recent form has been reminiscent of the level that helped him reach a career high ranking of No. 3 back in 2017. The No. 13 seed lost to Djokovic in the final of the Paris Masters in his last action of 2023, then won Brisbane to open 2024, topping Rune in the final. Dimitrov's on a potential Round of 16 collision course with Medvedev. Tsitsipas lost to Djokovic in last year's Australian Open final and has made three additional semifinals down under, but the No. 7 seed has a brutal early draw, facing Matteo Berrettini in the first round, then potentially Jordan Thompson, Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz, just to earn a quarterfinal date with Djokovic.
Sleepers
Sebastian Korda [DK: (+13000), FD: (+12000), BetMGM: (+8000)] - Korda seemed headed for a breakout season in 2023 after upsetting Medvedev at the Australian Open, but a wrist injury sidelined him for a few months, and it took him almost the entire year to find his form. The 23-year-old American finally regained his pre-injury level in October, reaching his first Masters semifinal in Shanghai. Korda's path to a deep run won't be easy as the No. 29 seed, as he could face No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev in the third round, de Minaur in the fourth and Sinner in the quarterfinals. Any one of those matches is winnable for the son of 1998 Australian Open champion Petr Korda, who has a 1-1 career record against both de Minaur and Sinner, though he's 0-2 against Rublev. If Korda can stay healthy in 2024, he has the talent to crack the top 10.
Karen Khachanov [DK: (+20000), FD: (+22000), BetMGM: (+12500)] - Khachanov's an absolute steal at his current odds given his history of Grand Slam success. The 6-foot-6 Russian stays supremely fit and thrives in best-of-five set play, as evidenced by his semifinal runs at the 2022 US Open and 2023 Australian Open, followed by a quarterfinal result at the French Open. Unfortunately, Khachanov suffered a fracture in his back at Roland Garros that kept him out of Wimbledon and led to a feable first-round exit at the US Open. He played a full schedule down the stretch in 2023, so Khachanov has had some time to work his way back into form. The No. 15 seed will likely have to get through No. 17 Tiafoe in the third round for a chance to face Sinner in the Round of 16, but Khachanov's 3-0 against Tiafoe at Grand Slams and won his only Grand Slam encounter against Sinner, so don't be too quick to count him out if he's all the way back to full health.
Arthur Fils [DK: (+20000), FD: (+25000), BetMGM: (+15000)] - Fils is a player to keep an eye on both in this tournament and across the rest of 2024, as the 19-year-old Frenchman is likely to continue surging up the rankings. He just missed being seeded here as the world's 35th-ranked player after being ranked outside the top 250 at this time last year. With easy power on his serve and groundstrokes coupled with signature French flair, Fils' skill set is reminiscent of retired countryman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whose breakout performance came at the 2008 Australian Open, when Tsonga made the final as an unseeded player. Matching that feat is almost certainly too much to ask of Fils, but he's definitely capable of reaching the third round and giving fellow youngster Rune a scare at that point.
Australian Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek [DK: (+250), FD: (+220), BetMGM: (+230)] - Briefly losing the No. 1 ranking to Sabalenka after a 75-week reign at the top seems to have been a blessing in disguise for Swiatek, who looked tight for much of 2023 but demolished her competition down the stretch and reclaimed the top spot with arguably the most dominant WTA Finals performance of all time. Still, it's easy to see why Swiatek is a clear underdog compared to the field, even if she has the best title odds of any individual competitor. Three of her four Grand Slam titles have come on the French Open clay and the fourth was on the slower hard courts of the US Open, so Swiatek hasn't been nearly as dominant on faster surfaces. Outside of a semifinal result in 2022, she hasn't been past the Round of 16 here, and her draw this year is about as tough as it gets. First up, 2020 Australian Open champ Sofia Kenin, then either three-time Grand Slam champion Angelique Kerber or Danielle Collins, who defeated Swiatek in the 2022 Australian Open semifinals. Swiatek has more than enough skill to navigate those early pitfalls and a draw that only gets harder after that, but it's far from a cakewalk.
In the Mix
Aryna Sabalenka [DK: (+400), FD: (+430), BetMGM: (+450)] - Sabalenka won her first Grand Slam title at last year's Australian Open, then backed that result up by reaching at least the semifinals at the other three slams. Her serving yips seem to be a thing of the past, and Sabalenka's capable of blowing opponents off the court with her powerful groundstrokes. The No. 2 seed also has a pretty favorable early draw, which gives her some margin for error as she deals with the pressure of defending a Grand Slam title for the first time. A potential US Open final rematch with Coco Gauff in the semifinals here would likely tilt in Sabalenka's favor on these faster hard courts and with a less partisan crowd.
Elena Rybakina [DK: (+500), FD: (+500), BetMGM: (+500)] - Rybakina dealt with back and shoulder problems in the second half of 2023, but she certainly looked 100 percent in Brisbane earlier this month, where she won the title without dropping more than five games in any match and took out Sabalenka in the final. That victory served as a nice confidence boost for the 2022 Wimbledon champion, who lost to Sabalenka in the final here last year. Rybakina defeated Swiatek en route to the Australian Open final and won all three head-to-head matches against the Pole in 2023, so the No. 3 seed isn't sweating a potential semifinal clash with the world No. 1. Her first-round draw is less than ideal, as Karolina Pliskova is one of the few players on the WTA Tour whose serve rivals Rybakina's, but things open up pretty nicely after that.
Coco Gauff [DK: (+550), FD: (+470), BetMGM: (+550)] - Coco Gauff officially arrived at the 2023 US Open, winning her first Grand Slam title as a teenager. Winning back-to-back majors won't be easy, though, especially since Gauff prefers slower surfaces much like Swiatek. Gauff's defense and transition skills are elite, but her forehand has a tendency to break down when she lacks time, and it's easier for opponents to put her in uncomfortable situations on faster hard courts like those in Melbourne, which is why the American has yet to advance past the fourth round in four previous Australian Open appearances. In a rare coincidence, the No. 4 seed drew the easiest possible path from a seeding perspective -- No. 32 Leylah Fernandez in the third round, No. 16 Caroline Garcia in the fourth, No. 8 Maria Sakkari in the quarterfinals and No. 2 Sabalenka in the semis. Naomi Osaka lurks as a potential alternative to Garcia, but all-in-all, Gauff's set up nicely to make the deepest Australian Open run of her young career.
Jessica Pegula [DK: (+1800), FD: (+2400), BetMGM: (+2000)] occupies a spot between the top four and the rest of the field, but the No. 5 seed should be considered part of the latter group given her 0-6 career record in Grand Slam quarterfinals, including the last three Australian Opens. Her chalk quarterfinal opponent would be Rybakina. Qinwen Zheng [DK: (+3000), FD: (+4000), BetMGM: (+3300)], Ons Jabeur [DK: (+3500), FD: (+3700), BetMGM: (+4000)], Naomi Osaka [DK: (+4000), FD: (+3600), BetMGM: (+3300)], Jelena Ostapenko [DK: (+4000), FD: (+4700), BetMGM: (+4000)], Maria Sakkari [DK: (+5000), FD: (+5000), BetMGM: (+4000)], Elina Svitolina [DK: (+5000), FD: (+5000), BetMGM: (+4000)] and Mirra Andreeva [DK: (+5000), FD: (+6000), BetMGM: (+4000)] are the other secondary contenders. The later rounds of the women's draw tend to have significantly more volatility than the men's draw, so each of these players has a realistic case to make a deep run, though some players have far more convincing arguments than others.
Zheng could face Pegula in the Round of 16, and the Chinese 21-year-old is seeded 12th on the heels of her first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the 2023 US Open. Jabeur's a three-time Grand Slam finalist, but the Australian Open has been by far her worst major over the years, as she has a pedestrian 7-6 record at this tournament. A deep run from the No. 6 seed is unlikely this time, either, as Jabeur has a tough draw including a possible second-round clash with Andreeva and fourth-round meeting with No. 9 seed Barbora Krejcikova, just to get to a quarterfinal against Sabalenka. Osaka has two Australian Open titles among her four hard-court major championships, but she went just 2-3 in Grand Slams in 2022 before sitting out 2023 to give birth to her first child. With a first-round match against No. 16 seed Caroline Garcia, the unseeded Osaka will face an early test in her second tournament back on tour, and her title chances seem overstated given her lack of match play.
Ostapenko won the French Open back in 2017 and made the quarterfinals of both hard court Grand Slams in 2023, beating Swiatek at the US Open. If the No. 11 seed can get past a likely third-round clash with No. 18 Victoria Azarenka, she would have a nice opportunity to emerge from No. 7 Marketa Vondrousova's section to set up a quarterfinal rematch with Swiatek. Sakkari went 2-4 in Grand Slams last year, so the No. 8 seed is a prime upset candidate, but she made two major semifinals in 2021 and is the chalk quarterfinal opponent for Gauff. Svitolina made the French Open quarterfinals and Wimbledon semifinals in 2023 to climb back into the top 20 after returning from a pregnancy. She beat Swiatek at Wimbledon and could face her again in the fourth round here. Andreeva's already a top 50 player at age 16 and went 6-3 at Grand Slams last year, but her odds seem a little overly optimistic in her first Australian Open main draw appearance, though she could certainly make some noise by taking out Jabeur in the second round.
Sleepers
Caroline Wozniacki [DK: (+8000), FD: (+9500), BetMGM: (+8000)] - Wozniacki made the Round of 16 at the US Open last year after unretiring. That was the first Grand Slam appearance for the 2018 Australian Open champion and former world No. 1 since the 2020 Australian Open. The 33-year-old Dane's best results over the years came on hard courts, and she could do some damage in Sakkari's section if she can get through a first-round clash with surprise 2023 Australian Open semifinalist Magda Linette.
Emma Raducanu [DK: (+8000), FD: (+7500), BetMGM: (+5000)] - Raducanu's back on tour after recovering from surgeries on both wrists. The 21-year-old Brit hasn't found much success since gaining instant celebrity status after her Cinderella run to the 2021 US Open title, but if she can stay healthy and block out the distractions, Raducanu's capable of being a consistent presence in the second week of majors. She's among the cleanest ball strikers around, but the unseeded Raducanu will have to navigate a tricky draw, with No. 22 seed Sorana Cirstea on her path in the second round, followed by Zheng and Pegula.
Linda Noskova [DK: (+12000), FD: (+12000), BetMGM: (+8000)] and American Emma Navarro [DK: (+20000), FD: (+18000), BetMGM: (+20000)] are a pair of deeper sleepers. Noskova's overshadowed by some other talented teenagers, but the 19-year-old just beat Andreeva in Brisbane, and she notched back-to-back wins over top-12 players on the hard courts of Cincinnati in August. Swiatek could block her path in the third round here, but Noskova should emerge as a top-20 player in 2024 if she can stay healthy. Navarro has won just one Grand Slam match in her career, but the 22-year-old New York native has gotten both her ranking and her confidence up by cleaning up at some smaller tournaments. The 2021 NCAA champion is seeded 27th here and could make a nice little run in Vondrousova's section if the No. 7 seed's hip remains bothersome, even though Navarro's preferred surface is clay.
Sasha's Picks to Win the Australian Open
Djokovic's history of success at this tournament makes him the prohibitive favorite, though his path in the later rounds should be more difficult than it has been in recent years, with Alcaraz in the draw this year and Sinner taking his game to another level. Nonetheless, Djokovic is my pick to win an 11th Australian Open title and 25th Grand Slam, though Alcaraz is certainly a tempting value at odds beyond 3-to-1.
Rybakina came tantalizingly close to claiming this title last year, and the 2022 Wimbledon champion looked nearly unstoppable in Brisbane. If she can carry that form over to Melbourne, the big server will be an awfully tough out. Rybakina's my title pick, while Wozniacki could be set up for a quarterfinal run in Sakkari's section, which is likely to open up given the No. 8 seed's recent struggles in majors.
