This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the Australian Open continues Monday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, which will be Sunday night for American viewers. A few talented young players in the women's draw are poised to continue their ascents, while a top-10 seed on the men's side is on upset alert and a pair of Australians are playing some of the best tennis of their careers heading into their first-round matches. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Matteo Berrettini (+290) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Berrettini has dropped to 125th in the rankings after an injury-riddled 2023 season, but the big-serving Italian spent most of the previous four years in the top 10. Tsitsipas has played his best at the Australian Open over the years, reaching the semifinals or better four times, but the No. 7 seed can't be feeling great about his form heading into this tournament. He has won multiple matches in only three of his last 11 tournaments, including a second-round exit at the US Open. Tsitsipas won all four previous encounters between these two, but they have been tightly contested. One came down to a third-set tiebreak, another required Tsitsipas to win a second-set tiebreak after losing the first set, and a 2019 first-round clash at this very tournament ended in a fourth-set tiebreak. Given Tsitsipas' lackluster recent form and Berrettini's capabilities when healthy, the Italian's worth a look as a significant underdog here.
Diana Shnaider (+170) vs. Jasmine Paolini
Shnaider made a name for herself as an 18-year-old at last year's Australian Open, pushing Maria Sakkari to the limit in the second round before losing 3-6, 7-5, 6-3. The Russian lefty also had a nice finish to 2023, beating Petra Kvitova and Linda Fruhvirtova en route to her first WTA Tour final at the Ningbo Open in September. Shnaider's big forehand should allow her to control play against the 5-foot-4 Paolini, whose No. 30 ranking is due to her success in smaller tournaments, as the Italian has struggled mightily in Grand Slams. Paolini has a career 4-16 Grand Slam record, including a 0-4 mark at the Australian Open.
Honorable Mention
Stan Wawrinka (+205) vs. Adrian Mannarino
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Jordan Thompson (-260) vs. Aleksandar Vukic
Few players are as confident heading into this tournament as Thompson, whose semifinal result in Brisbane earlier this month included a memorable three-set victory over Rafael Nadal. Thompson began that tournament with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Vukic, and that nice run pushed his ranking up to No. 47, just four spots from Thompson's career high. In this all-Aussie matchup, Thompson has a 16-spot edge in the rankings and a much larger advantage in recent form.
Marta Kostyuk (-250) vs. Claire Liu
Kostyuk burst onto the scene with a third-round result at the 2018 Australian Open, so it's easy to forget that the talented Ukrainian is still just 21 years old. This is her fifth main draw appearance down under, and Kostyuk has reach the third round in three of the previous four. She wasn't far from being seeded here as the world No. 41, and Kostyuk has far more tools than Liu, who is ranked No. 104. The American counterpuncher has a ceiling to her game, as Liu has lost her last 10 matches against top-50 opponents. Unless Kostyuk beats herself here, she should advance easily.
Honorable Mention
Nicolas Jarry (-390) vs. Flavio Cobolli
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Linda Noskova (+145) vs. Marie Bouzkova
There is no shortage of talented teenagers on the WTA Tour, so Noskova has flown under the radar a bit, but few players have a brighter future than the Czech 19-year-old, who is currently ranked 51st. Noskova's 2024 is off to a promising start, as she reached the semifinals in Brisbane, notching wins over fellow teenage standout Mirra Andreeva and top-30 player Sorana Cirstea along the way. She'll have a nice opportunity to build on that strong start against her compatriot Bouzkova, who has made a couple deep runs on grass at Wimbledon but is just 5-14 at the other three Grand Slams, including 1-4 at the Australian Open. Bouzkova's currently ranked 16 spots ahead of Noskova at No. 35, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Noskova surpass Bouzkova's career high of No. 23 within the next few months.
Rinky Hijikata (+120) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
Hijikata's a high-energy player who thrives off the crowd, and the 22-year-old Aussie will have plenty of support coming off a breakout 2023 campaign that included an Australian Open men's doubles title with Jason Kubler and a fourth-round singles result at the US Open. He currently boasts the best ranking of his career at No. 70, but Hijikata's likely to improve that mark this year, as he has yet to play a clay court main draw match on the ATP Tour. While Hijikata has done most of his damage on hard courts, Struff's No. 24 ranking is due mostly to his exploits on other surfaces, as the 33-year-old German made the finals of the Madrid Masters and quarterfinals of the Monte Carlo Masters on clay while reaching the final of Stuttgart on grass. Struff's just 1-9 at the Australian Open on his career, so while this would be a substantial upset ranking-wise, a Hijikata victory wouldn't be much of a surprise given the full context.
Honorable Mention
Denis Shapovalov (+145) vs. Jakub Mensik
