This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the Australian Open begins Sunday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, but it will still be Saturday night for American viewers. An American who was once considered a rising star will try to find her game and pull off an opening-day upset, while a former champion will look to add to her fond memories at this venue. On the men's side, a local favorite should give the Australian fans something to cheer about, though a couple other Aussies could be looking at early exits. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Amanda Anisimova (+185) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Anisimova has slipped outside the top 300 after taking a mental break from tennis, but the talented American has returned to the sport to begin 2024, and she certainly has enough game to pull off this upset. Still just 22 years old, Anisimova already has a French Open semifinal and Wimbledon quarterfinal under her belt, and her Australian Open scalps include Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka. The giant-killer will look to add another upset victory down under to her collection against the 13th-seeded Samsonova, who has a 3-4 career record at the Australian Open and has generally struggled in Grand Slams, failing to break through to a quarterfinal and clearing the second round only three times in 14 tries. Anisimova won their only previous meeting in straight sets last year in Adelaide.
Cristian Garin (+175) vs. Christopher O'Connell
O'Connell will have the crowd support, but the 29-year-old Aussie is a pedestrian player, with a career high ranking outside the top 50 and a 32-50 lifetime record on the ATP Tour. He's currently ranked 17 spots ahead of Garin at No. 71, but the 88th-ranked Chilean has a far higher ceiling, having been ranked as high as No. 17 in 2021. Garin's best results have come on clay, but he has added some aggression to his game over the years, and Garin won both previous encounters with O'Connell in straight sets. Both of those matches came in qualifying on hard courts, with the latter occurring just a few months ago.
Honorable Mention
Nao Hibino (+750) vs. Maria Sakkari
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Matteo Arnaldi (-475) vs. Adam Walton
Arnaldi's overshadowed by Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti among Italy's standout generation of young men's tennis players, but the 22-year-old is coming off a breakout run to the Round of 16 at the US Open and sports a career high ranking of No. 41 heading into this tournament. It likely won't be long until Arnaldi's consistently seeded in slams, but he got a comfortable first-round draw here nonetheless for his Australian Open main draw debut. The 176th-ranked Walton got automatic main draw entry via a wild card, but the 24-year-old Aussie has never played a main draw ATP match in his career. Walton's 2-5 in his last seven matches on the Challenger Tour (basically ATP's minor-league circuit), with both wins coming against players ranked outside the top 300 and two of the losses against players outside the top 500. The rise in level to a top-50 opponent will almost certainly be too much for Walton to handle.
Jason Kubler (-190) vs. Daniel Elahi Galan
Kubler's a talented player who has been held back by injuries, but he's finally seeing consistent action on the tour, as this will be his eighth consecutive Grand Slam main draw. The 30-year-old Australian has won his first-round match in six of those previous seven majors, with a Wimbledon fourth round in 2022 representing his best singles result. He also won the men's doubles here last year with fellow Aussie Rinky Hijikata. Though his ranking has dropped outside the top 100 due to some injury troubles late in 2023, Kubler's healthy to begin 2024 and should have little trouble handling the 89th-ranked Galan. Hard courts have been Galan's worst surface, as the Colombian has a career 19-29 hard-court record, and Kubler won their only previous tour-level meeting last year on clay.
Honorable Mention
Barbora Krejcikova (-450) vs. Mai Hontama
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Caroline Wozniacki (-145) vs. Magda Linette
Linette caught fire for two weeks last year and made the Australian Open semifinals, but outside of that run, she has a 21-32 career Grand Slam record, including a 3-6 mark down under. She's seeded 20th here but would tumble well outside the seeded range if last year's semifinal result were to be replaced with an early exit on the rolling 52-week rankings. That early exit is likely to materialize courtesy of Wozniacki, who reached the Round of 16 at the US Open in her return to the tour last year. Wozniacki's a former world No. 1 and 2018 Australian Open champion, so her No. 252 ranking doesn't do her justice at all. The 33-year-old veteran still has excellent court coverage after unretiring, and there's no substitute for Wozniacki's mix of experience and mental toughness in big moments. Linette comes into this match mired in a 1-6 slump, so while Wozniacki's light match schedule isn't ideal, it's better than the constant losing her opponent has experienced lately.
Alina Korneeva (+135) vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo
Mirra Andreeva isn't the only 16-year-old Russian in the draw. Korneeva got in the hard way, winning three qualifying matches. After being pushed to 7-5 in the third and a third-set tiebreak in the first two, she cruised past 118th-ranked Anna Bondar 6-3, 6-3. The ability to pull out two tightly contested victories then handily beat a former top-50 opponent should have Korneeva -- who won the juniors at both the Australian Open and French Open last year -- brimming with confidence heading into her Grand Slam main draw debut. Her first-round opponent will be the 53rd-ranked Sorribes Tormo, who has won only three of her last nine matches, with two of the wins coming against players ranked outside the top 500. Sorribes Tormo doesn't hit with much power, so Korneeva should have a nice opportunity to get into a rhythm, and a breakout result at the Australian Open would quickly shut the buy-low window on the talented teenager.
Honorable Mention
Pavel Kotov (-160) vs. Arthur Rinderknech
