This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Second-round action at the BNP Paribas Open continues Saturday. All of the seeded players in action Saturday will be playing their first matches on the hard courts of Indian Wells, California after receiving first-round byes. Some Americans will be looking to pull off upsets while others will be trying to avoid them, and one of the world's best players is available at discounted odds. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting has officially gone live.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Ben Shelton (+320) vs. Taylor Fritz
This will feel like a good old-fashioned road game for the former college tennis star Shelton, as Fritz will have the crowd support at what's basically the home tournament for the California native. Fritz sent his fans into a frenzy by taking the title here last year, which has allowed him to move up to a career-high No. 5, but Shelton won't be intimidated in this all-American matchup. In just a few months on tour, the 20-year-old Shelton already has a top-five win over Casper Ruud, as well as a Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open under his belt. Fritz is rightfully favored, but this one should come down to the wire.
Bernarda Pera (+285) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Samsonova's off to a pedestrian start in 2023, as her 7-6 record includes 6-3, 6-0 and 6-1, 6-0 blowouts at the hands of Donna Vekic and Iga Swiatek, respectively, as well as a 6-3, 6-1 drubbing by Sofia Kenin, who was ranked outside the top 200 at the time of that encounter last month. Samsonova's still sitting on a career high ranking of No. 12 despite the mediocre recent results, so the pressure will be on the Russian here against an American opponent in Pera, who should benefit from the crowd's support. Pera had 10 aces and 13 double faults in her first-round win over Lucia Bronzetti, so if she can maintain her effectiveness on the first serve while cleaning up her aim on the second serve, Pera could tilt the even 1-1 career head-to-head against Samsonova in her favor.
Honorable Mention
Sorana Cirstea (+210) vs. Madison Keys
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Carlos Alcaraz (-340) vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
If Alcaraz is healthy, he should cruise to victory here, and all indications from the 19-year-old Spaniard are that his hamstring is no longer bothering him. "I'm [feeling] really good right now," Alcaraz said at his pre-tournament press conference. "Today was the first practice that I practised with some players, [played] some points. I feel great. I took some days off and it was really good for me. Right now I'm ready." Despite missing the Australian Open, among other tournaments, due to an unfortunate string of injuries, Alcaraz can return to No. 1 in the world rankings by winning the Indian Wells title. The slow hard courts here should fit his game nicely, as Alcaraz has the power to blow the ball by opponents anyway and the speed to thrive in these conditions on defense. Kokkinakis' big serve could allow him to hang around, but he just doesn't have enough game to challenge the top guys once points get going, which is why the Aussie is 1-7 in his last eight matches against top-20 opponents.
Tommy Paul (-330) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
This should be smooth sailing for Paul against the 134th-ranked Struff. The 25-year-old American has a 3-0 career head-to-head edge against the 32-year-old German, having won all seven sets in their previous encounters. They most recently met in the first round of the Australian Open, and Paul went on to reach the semifinals there after opening the tournament with a comfortable win over Struff.
Honorable Mention
Daria Kasatkina (-260) vs. Tatjana Maria
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-150) vs. Katerina Siniakova
Haddad Maia is ranked 32 spots ahead of No. 45 Siniakova for a reason. Siniakova's an elite doubles player, but her singles results have been pedestrian, as she's been past the third round of a Grand Slam only once in 33 tries and has a 7-18 career Grand Slam record on hard courts. Granted, this WTA 1000 event is just below Grand Slam level, but those results are indicative of Siniakova's limited ceiling in big tournaments. Haddad Maia has also lacked success in Grand Slams, though 2022 was the first year that the late-blooming Brazilian even played all four majors. She has since established herself as a top-20 mainstay, and the 26-year-old lefty has a 9-5 record in 2022, with six of those wins coming against top-30 opponents.
Pablo Carreno Busta (+120) vs. Andy Murray
Shockingly, this will be the first head-to-head meeting between the 35-year-old Brit and the 31-year-old Spaniard, even though Murray has spent the bulk of his career in the top 10 and Carreno Busta has been a mainstay in the top 30. It's surprising that the Spaniard's an underdog here considering that he currently sits at No. 17 while Murray's 55th in the world. Carreno Busta won a hard-court Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open last year and is a two-time US Open semifinalist, so he should be comfortable on this surface against Murray, who's coming off a grueling 6-7 (5), 6-1, 6-4 win over 61st-ranked Tomas Martin Etcheverry in three hours and 12 minutes. Not only is Murray facing far stiffer competition in the second round, but it's fair to wonder whether his body can grind out another physical match full of long rallies after spending so much time on court in his previous match.
Honorable Mention
Victoria Azarenka (-145) vs. Karolina Muchova
