This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Australian Open is down to just four players apiece in the men's and women's draws. The women's semifinals are scheduled for Thursday in Melbourne, which is Wednesday night in the United States. The men's semis won't take place until Friday down under, and those will be previewed in their own piece later on. The first women's semifinal clash features a pair of Grand Slam champions. One won hers much more recently but the other has multiple titles at this very tournament. The other match pits arguably the best player without a Grand Slam title to date against a Cinderella story looking to notch yet another upset.
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Women's matches at Grand Slams are best of three sets just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. All of the players taking the court here have proven that they can excel in these hot hard-court conditions, but a mix of previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help predict how the upcoming matches will unfold.
Elena Rybakina (-195) vs. Victoria Azarenka (+160)
Rybakina has proven her win at Wimbledon last year was no fluke. The only player to take a set off her so far at this tournament was 2022 Australian Open finalist Danielle Collins in the third round, and Rybakina backed up that win with straight-sets victories over world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and Jelena Ostapenko. This is only the second Grand Slam semifinal for the 23-year-old Moscow native, but Rybakina proved she can handle the moment by going all the way at Wimbledon. She was actually broken three times by Elisabetta Cocciaretto in the first round, but arguably the best server on the WTA Tour has dropped serve only four times in four subsequent matches. In her only previous meeting with Azarenka, Rybakina won 6-3, 6-4 at Indian Wells last year, so it's no surprise that she's viewed as the clear favorite in this one.
A decade has passed since Azarenka won the second of back-to-back Australian Opens, but she made a run to the final of the US Open in 2020, giving her five career championship match appearances at hard court Grand Slams. All told, she's 5-0 in Grand Slam semis on hard courts and 0-3 on other surfaces. Even at age 33, Azarenka has the edge in movement and should thrive in longer rallies, but how many of those she will get to play against Rybakina is the question. Azarenka has proven she can beat all sorts of styles here, absorbing the power of No. 10 seed Madison Keys in a 1-6, 6-2, 6-1 third-round win before pushing around third-seeded Jessica Pegula 6-4, 6-1 in the quarterfinals. The Belarusian's biggest strength is her return, but she will also need to serve well here, as there will only be so many chances to break Ryabkina's serve. Azarenka knows she likely doesn't have many deep runs left in her, so expect her to fight and claw for every point.
Prediction: Azarenka in three sets
Aryna Sabalenka (-475) vs. Magda Linette (+350)
Sabalenka has been dominant in this tournament, dropping five games or fewer four times while losing all of seven games to No. 12 seed Belinda Bencic in the fourth round. Her issues on serve have largely been fixed, as Sabalenka has yet to finish a match at this tournament with more double faults than aces. Contrast this serving performance with the US Open a few months ago, where Sabalenka pushed Swiatek to 6-4 in the third set of a semifinal clash despite serving up a 27:35 ratio of aces to double faults in the tournament. The 24-year-old Belarusian has been thwarted at the semifinal stage of a Grand Slam three times before, but Sabalenka's in better position than ever to finally break through to a final. If she can hold her nerve, there's little reason that the world No. 5 shouldn't win this match.
The same refrain about facing an opponent in dominant form could have been used in Linette's previous match against Karolina Pliskova, yet Linette found a way to win that one in straight sets, adding to a list of impressive victories at this tournament that also included upsets of No. 16 seed Anett Kontaveit, No. 19 Ekaterina Alexandrova and No. 4 Caroline Garcia. Kontaveit was the only player to even take a set off the 45th-ranked Pole. It's easy to say her opponents didn't play their best, and that certainly looked like the case for both Garcia and Pliskova, but Linette deserves credit for throwing them off their game. This is uncharted territory for the 30-year-old Linette, who had failed to advance past the third round of a Grand Slam prior to this tournament. Linette has won only seven games across two previous meetings with Sabalenka, but the tale of the tape didn't support her chances in any of the previous four matches, either, yet here she is.
Prediction: Sabalenka in straight sets
