This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Australian Open quarterfinals continue from Melbourne on Wednesday (Tuesday night in the United States) with a pair of men's matches and a pair of women's matches. Two unseeded American men will face off with a semifinal berth on the line, while two of the best players on the WTA Tour without a Grand Slam title to their name will look to get one step closer to filling that glaring gap on their respective resumes. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, including those that just launched in Ohio.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups are considered below, with added emphasis on players' form through the first four rounds. Those factors are used to pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Ben Shelton (+210) vs. Tommy Paul
Neither of these Americans were expected to make it this far, but now that both are here, most of the pressure falls squarely on Paul's shoulders. This is just the second Grand Slam appearance for the 20-year-old Shelton, who remarkably has a chance to get to the semis without facing a seeded opponent. Paul's draw has been only moderately tougher, as No. 25 Roberto Bautista Agut has been his highest-ranked opponent to date. The 25-year-old Paul's also into a Grand Slam quarterfinal for the first time in his career, and while his upward trajectory over the past year suggests it won't be his last, Paul has more perspective on just how hard it is to get to this stage. Shelton should swing more freely as the underdog in this one, and he has proven to be extremely clutch in close sets and matches. The former Florida Gators star has pulled out a pair of five-setters en route to this point and is 6-2 in sets that ended 7-5 or 7-6.
Lock It In
Aryna Sabalenka (-380) vs. Donna Vekic
This is Sabalenka's tournament to lose at this point, and she's showing no signs of cracking. Despite facing a relatively tough draw, the No. 5 seed has yet to drop a set, and Sabalenka's lost only 21 games while getting broken a grand total of three times. Conversely, this will be a massive step up in level of competition for Vekic, who beat three unseeded players and No. 18 seed Liudmila Samsonova to get to the point. Sabalenka has already defeated three opponents ranked higher than the 64th-ranked Vekic, and while Vekic was able to take control of her previous matches by overpowering the competition from the base line, she will find it much tougher to do so against Sabalenka, who is among the WTA's biggest hitters off both wings.
Honorable Mention:
Novak Djokovic (+650) vs. Andrey Rublev
Value Bet
Karolina Pliskova (-165) vs. Magda Linette
Pliskova has flown under the radar here, but it's apparent that the former world No. 1 has regained the consistent form she displayed prior to suffering a hand injury early in 2022. The hand injury and subsequent struggles after recovering have dropped Pliskova's ranking to No. 31, but she's back to playing at a top-10 level, reaching the quarterfinals of the 2022 US Open and again here. All told, the big-serving Czech has made the quarters or better at nine of the last 13 hard-court Grand Slams in which she has played. Linette has upset three top-20 seeds to get here, but the Cinderella run will likely come to an end for the 30-year-old Pole, who had never advanced past the third round of a Grand Slam in 29 previous tries. Linette has been broken multiple times in each of her last three matches, and if she struggles to take care of her own serve in this one, it will be awfully tough to keep pace with Pliskova, who has dropped just 19 games total and three on her own serve.
