This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth round of the Australian Open begins Sunday in Melbourne, or Saturday night in the United States. Americans in both the men's and women's draws will look to continue their strong tournaments, while a young player with multiple upset wins under his belt in this tournament could be poised to pull off his biggest one yet. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, including those that just launched in Ohio.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups are considered below, with added emphasis on players' form through the first three rounds. Those factors are used to pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Jiri Lehecka (+290) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Lehecka has already upset No. 21 seed Borna Coric and No. 11 seed Cameron Norrie, as the 21-year-old Czech's making a name for himself at this tournament. He'll be looking to add another signature win to his ledger against the sixth-seeded Auger-Aliassime, who has looked shaky all tournament. FAA has dropped at least one set in every match and had to climb out of a two-set hole against Alex Molcan in the second round.
Honorable Mention
Lin Zhu (+450) vs. Victoria Azarenka
Lock It In
Karen Khachanov (-250) vs. Yoshihito Nishioka
It's time to start taking Khachanov seriously as a major factor in the second week of Grand Slams. He had stagnated after reaching a career high ranking of No. 8 in July of 2019 — shortly after his 23rd birthday — but Khachanov's career is back on the upswing. The No. 18 seed here made his first Grand Slam semifinal at the 2022 US Open, and Khachanov's four-set win over fellow US Open semifinalist Frances Tiafoe in the third round improved the Russian's record to 8-1 in his last nine Grand Slam matches. Nishioka beat him in August shortly before this run started, but Khachanov is 2-1 against Nishioka overall and has far more experience deep in majors. This will be Khachanov's ninth career fourth-round match at a Grand Slam, but the first for the 31st-seeded Nishioka, who came into this tournament with an 11-26 career record at Grand Slams and hasn't faced a top-60 opponent in his three wins here.
Jessica Pegula (-205) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Pegula has been mowing down the opposition, dropping only 11 games through three rounds while playing one set that was more competitive than 6-2. Krejcikova has gotten this far without facing a seeded opponent, so a matchup with the red-hot No. 3 seed will be a massive step up in level of competition for the 20th-seeded Czech. These two accomplished doubles players have gone head to head a few times in that format, but this will be their first meeting in singles, where Pegula has been more effective than Krejcikova recently. Between the United Cup and Australian Open, Pegula's 7-1 in her last eight matches, including a win over world No. 1 Iga Swiatek.
Honorable Mention:
Coco Gauff (-425) vs. Jelena Ostapenko
Value Bet
Sebastian Korda (-170) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Either Korda took so much confidence from nearly beating Novak Djokovic in the Adelaide final that he's riding a wave of belief or the 22-year-old American took the next step in his development this offseason and is now a top contender at Grand Slams. Either way, Korda should be able to back up his straight sets third-round win over former world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev with another victory against Hurkacz. Despite being seeded No. 10, Hurkacz had never been past the second round of a hard-court Grand Slam in nine tries prior to this tournament, and he was pushed to five sets by each of his previous two opponents.
Honorable Mention:
Jannik Sinner (+175) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
