This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the Australian Open will continue Saturday down under, which is Friday night in United States. American men have had an exquisite tournament, including wins over the Rafael Nadal, Casper Ruud, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. A couple U.S. men are guaranteed to move on in all-American matchups, while another has an opportunity to add to what's already the deepest Grand Slam run of his young career. On the women's side, head-to-head history has one contender poised to advance, while another seed could struggle against a high-ceiling opponent. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, including those that just launched in Ohio.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups are considered below, with added emphasis on players' form through the first two rounds. Those factors are used to pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Andy Murray (+270) vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
The great ones find a way to win, and Murray has done just that through two rounds. He needed a fifth-set tiebreak to beat No. 13 seed Matteo Berrettini in the opening round, then erased a two-set deficit against Thanasi Kokkinakis before ultimately prevailing 7-5 in the fifth. If Murray's 35-year-old legs still have some juice after spending 10:34 on court through two round, he's capable of taking out the 24th-seeded Bautista Agut, who also had to dig out of a two-set hole in his previous match. RBA has won their last three meetings, including a five-setter at the 2019 Australian Open, but their overall head-to-head is 3-3.
Camila Giorgi (+330) vs. Belinda Bencic
Giorgi is a player top seeds don't like to see in their sections, as the hard-hitting Italian controls most of her matches. She has no Plan B, but when Plan A is working, Giorgi can beat anybody. While her ranking has dropped to No. 70, Giorgi is 3-5 against top-20 opponents since last year's French Open, and the last three losses were all either 7-5 or 7-6 in the third set. The conditions at this tournament have favored Giorgi's flat ground strokes, as she's dropped only eight games through two rounds. Bencic has won three of their previous five meetings, but they haven't played since 2019.
Honorable Mention
Linda Fruhvirtova (+240) vs. Marketa Vondrousova
Lock It In
J.J. Wolf (-295) vs. Michael Mmoh
Mmoh has capitalized on his opportunity as a lucky loser, beating 175th-ranked Laurent Lokoli in a five-set first-round match before knocking off a disgruntled Alexander Zverev in four sets. The Zverev win is the biggest of the 107th-ranked American's career, but Zverev's currently a shell of his usual self as he works his way back from a major ankle injury. Unlike the struggling German, Wolf's firing on all cylinders, as the 24-year-old Cincinnati native would break into the top 50 for the first time in his career with a win in this match. Both of the previous meetings between these two Americans have come at the challenger level (the tennis equivalent of baseball's Triple-A level), which is a testament to how both have improved lately, but Wolf was a step ahead then, just as he is now. Wolf won both matches against Mmoh in straight sets while dropping only nine games.
Aryna Sabalenka (-450) vs. Elise Mertens
Mertens is the definition of a high-floor, low-ceiling player. She simply doesn't lose to inferior opponents, making the third round or better in 18 consecutive Grand Slams before her first-round loss at the 2022 US Open. The 32nd-ranked Belgian has started a new such streak, but she rarely keeps advancing once the competition gets tougher in majors, making the quarterfinals or better only three times. Mertens' head-to-heads against most top players leave much to be desired, and that's the case with Sabalenka, as the world No. 5 has won their last four encounters to improve to 5-2 overall. In the here and now, Sabalenka has solved her yips on the second serve, which was the biggest factor holding her back from being a legitimate title contender in every tournament she enters. After consistently reaching double digits in double faults last year, she has hit only three through two matches at this tournament. Consequently, Sabalenka has been broken just once while dropping only nine games.
Honorable Mention:
Alex de Minaur (-380) vs. Benjamin Bonzi
Value Bet
Jenson Brooksby (+110) vs. Tommy Paul
Brooksby's the slight underdog in this clash between ascendant Americans, but each player's form so far down under suggests Brooksby should actually be favored here. The court conditions seem to suit Brooksby's game perfectly, as the balls' reported inability to hold their pressure after a couple games works just fine for his relatively flat ball. If the 22-year-old American had held his nerve when serving for the match against Casper Ruud, he would have had a straight-sets upset of the No. 2 seed. As it was, Brooksby showed an impressive ability to regroup and put it away in four. Paul's ranked four spots ahead of Brooksby at No. 35, but the 25-year-old was pushed to 6-4 in the fifth by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in his previous match. Paul has the better serve, but this is a match that's likely to feature plenty of extended backhand-to-backhand rallies, which plays right into Brooksby's wheelhouse.
Ben Shelton (+125) vs. Alexei Popyrin
Popyrin's coming off the biggest win of his career, as the partisan Aussie crowd seemed to rattle No. 8 seed Taylor Fritz in Popyrin's 6-7 (4), 7-6 (2), 6-4, 6-7 (6), 6-2 second-round upset. Such conditions won't bother Shelton, who is used to playing in hostile atmospheres from his time as a college tennis star with the Florida Gators. Shelton led the Gators to a national title as a freshman, then won the NCAA Singles Championship as a sophomore in 2022 before turning pro. The 20-year-old American is the more talented player between the two, as Popyrin possesses a big serve but posted a dreadful 5-17 record in 2022 and is ranked outside the top 100 at age 23.
Honorable Mention:
Ekaterina Alexandrova (-160) vs. Magda Linette
