This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
After heat and rain-related delays backed up the action Tuesday, Wednesday's day three of the Australian Open will feature a mix of first-round and second-round action. While it's already Wednesday down under, tennis will begin Tuesday night in the United States and run through Wednesday morning. A player who has underachieved in Grand Slams on the men's side could be in store for his latest disappointment, while a couple of the America's best hopes for deep runs down under should have comfortable paths into the third round. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, including those that just launched in Ohio.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups are considered below. With the majority of the first round completed, we have some fresh data to dissect as we look to pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Lorenzo Sonego (+290) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Sonego has had Hurkacz's number in their previous meetings. The 47th-ranked Italian leads their head-to-head 3-1, including a straight-sets win on indoor hard courts in September. He's coming off a down year, but Sonego was ranked as high as No. 21 late in 2021, so he's a challenging second-round opponent even without considering his favorable head-to-head history. The 11th-ranked Hurkacz has quietly been one of the worst Grand Slam performers among players near the top of the men's game. He made it past the second round only once in four tries last year and has surpassed this stage a shockingly low three times in 18 career Grand Slam appearances entering this one.
Mayar Sherif (+310) vs. Magda Linette
Sherif gained some major confidence late in 2022, finishing the year on a 10-match winning streak that included a victory over Maria Sakkari in the Parma final. Those results came on Sherif's preferred clay-court surface, and she has opened 2023 with a 1-2 record on hard courts, but the world No. 54 is being given surprisingly little chance against a player ranked only nine spots above her. Linette has had plenty of frustrating losses recently. Since falling just short of upsetting Karolina Pliskova in the first round of the US Open, the 30-year-old Pole has lost to six players ranked outside the top 70.
Honorable Mention
Bernarda Pera (+215) vs. Qinwen Zheng
Lock It In
Sebastian Korda (-475) vs. Yosuke Watanuki
Korda's playing excellent tennis, as the 22-year-old American was a point away from beating Novak Djokovic for the Adelaide title leading up to this tournament after notching wins over Andy Murray and Jannik Sinner, among others. Watanuki's coming off a straight-sets first-round upset of Arthur Rinderknech, but this is a large step up in opponent quality for the Japanese qualifier. If Korda plays up to his capabilities, this should be a straightforward result for the No. 29 seed, who could be on his way into the top 10 in 2023.
Jessica Pegula (-575) vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Pegula's become a mainstay in the second week of Grand Slams, reaching the quarterfinals in each of the past two Australian Opens and three of the last four majors overall. The No. 3 seed dropped just one game in her first-round win over Jaqueline Cristian, and Pegula has a comfortable second-round matchup against Sasnovich. These two met in the second round of the US Open a few months ago, with Pegula claiming a 6-4, 6-4 victory.
Honorable Mention:
Yoshihito Nishioka (-370) vs. Dalibor Svrcina
Value Bet
Tatjana Maria (-165) vs. Lucrezia Stefanini
Maria has a 70-spot edge in the rankings at No. 71, and that's without counting the points from her semifinal run at Wimbledon. The crafty veteran should take care of business against Stefanini, who hasn't shown she can hang with opponents of Maria's caliber. In five matches against top-100 opponents since August, Stefanini has gone 1-4 while winning only 12 total games across the four losses. For another point in Sherif's corner above, Stefanini's lone victory came against Linette.
Corentin Moutet (-105) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Moutet has posted some excellent hard-court results recently. The 23-year-old Frenchman made it to the Round of 16 at the US Open as a lucky loser, beating Botic van de Zandschulp before falling in four sets to eventful runner-up Casper Ruud. Moutet then beat Borna Coric and Cameron Norrie at the Paris Masters 1000. In the first round here, Moutet avenged his US Open qualifying loss to Yibing Wu. Cerundolo has the superior ranking at No. 29, but he's seeded primarily due to strong results on clay. In his career, the 24-year-old Argentine is just 9-15 on hard courts.
Honorable Mention:
Botic van de Zandschulp (-130) vs. Tallon Griekspoor
