This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The US Open continues Thursday with women's semifinals from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York. First, the hottest player on the WTA Tour will look to keep rolling against an opponent that's looking to make her second consecutive Grand Slam final. Then, the world No. 1 faces a tough stylistic matchup against a hard-hitting, locked-in opponent.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but occasionally you can find more favorable odds by searching other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the best sports betting sites. Women's matches in Grand Slams are best of three sets, just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. All of the players in action Thursday have shown they're capable of notching quality wins to get to this point, but a mix of their previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help predict how the upcoming matches will unfold.
Caroline Garcia (-175) vs. Ons Jabeur (+145)
Garcia has looked unstoppable lately, winning two of her previous three tournaments heading into the US Open and dropping no more than seven games in any of her first five matches in New York. The 17th seed's tremendous form has her favored against the fifth-seeded Jabeur, who has dropped only one set en route to the semifinals. This is becoming familiar territory for Jabeur, who reached the final at Wimbledon this year. Garcia, on the other hand, is in the first Grand Slam semifinal of her career.
Both of their previous meetings also came at hard court Grand Slams, with Jabeur prevailing at the 2019 US Open and 2020 Australian Open, but both of these late bloomers are playing better tennis now than they were then, plus the stakes are significantly higher for this match. Garcia has more power and even Coco Gauff's retrieval skills were unable to neutralize the Frenchwoman's shotmaking in the previous round, but Jabeur will look to keep Garcia from getting in rhythm by keeping her off balance with a variety of spins and speeds. If Garcia can handle the moment and maintain her level from the past few matches, she should find herself in her first Grand Slam final, but Jabeur will throw everything but the kitchen sink at her to prevent that from happening.
Prediction: Garcia in three sets.
Aryna Sabalenka (+180) vs. Iga Swiatek (-225)
Sabalenka has just the right game style to upset Swiatek on a hard court, robbing her of time with powerful groundstrokes just like Beatriz Haddad Maia and Madison Keys did in their August wins over the world No. 1. While Swiatek's more consistent and precise, Sabalenka can hit anyone off the court when she's on her game, and the sixth-seeded Belarusian has played exquisitely since saving two match points against Kaia Kanepi in her second-round match. Sabalenka has dropped just one set since that point and is coming off a 6-1, 7-6 (4) victory over Karolina Pliskova.
The serving issues that have plagued Sabalenka for much of the year also seem to have subsided, as she's double faulted three times or fewer in two of her last three matches. Swiatek has beaten Sabalenka in straight sets all three times they've played this year, but the last two matches were on clay, where Swiatek is leagues better than the competition, just like her idol Rafael Nadal. Their hard court head-to-head is tied 1-1, with Sabalenka notching a win in Guadalajara last year and Swiatek avenging that loss in Doha as part of the Pole's 37-match win streak earlier this year.
Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets
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