This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Brighton head to the Etihad on Saturday for a massive match in the battle for Champions League spots.
Manchester City's difficult season continued last weekend when they lost on the road at Nottingham Forest. It's been a tough campaign for Pep Guardiola's side and they need to start picking up results if they want to be playing Champions League football next season.
Meanwhile, Brighton are on fire right now. The Seagulls have ripped off six straight wins in all competitions and are only three points behind Chelsea for fourth place in the table. Fabian Hurzeler's side beat Manchester City in the previous meeting, which should give them confidence heading into Saturday's clash.
Premier League odds can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
Premier League Best Bets for Manchester City vs. Brighton
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
These are the types of matchups Brighton thrive in. Hurzler's tactical system is not designed to consistently build out of the back and try to play through teams. Instead, he wants his team to vacate the midfield, push five to six guys up on the opponent's defensive line and play direct balls in behind.
It's why they beat Manchester City in the previous meeting 2-1 since Pep continually wants his team to play a high line. On top of that, their press has been mostly ineffective, which has given opponents time and space on the ball to pick out these types of passes over the top.
One of the players who has really benefited from this Brighton system is Kaoru Mitoma, who has two goals in his last four Premier League matches and seven on the season.
Isolating him against one of City's full-backs will be a great matchup for the Seagulls, so I like the value on him to find the back of the net at +375.
Premier League anytime goalscorer bets are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
Erling Haaland to score
This price is kind of low for Erling Haaland. Teams have been doing a good job of limiting him this season, but those are mainly the teams that play effective low blocks.
Brighton are one of the most aggressive pressing teams in the Premier League and play the third-highest average defensive line behind only Arsenal and Manchester City.
Haaland is deadly because against teams that press high, he often gets isolated one on one against the opposing center-back and will almost always win that duel.
His shot and goal production may have be down, but he usually has success against pressing teams.
I like the value on him to score at -120.
Betting on Player Shots on Target
Outside of Mitoma, the guy on Brighton who gets targeted most in long-ball situations is Joao Pedro.
The Brazilian has been Brighton's most productive forward this season leading them with eight goals and averaging almost one shot on target per 90 minutes.
In the previous meeting against Manchester City, he had a goal and an assist as he was able to continually get in behind City's high back line.
Manchester City are still missing John Stones, Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji, which will give Pedro even better of a chance to get in behind.
I like the value on him to have shot on target in this match at -175.
Manchester City vs. Brighton Betting Picks
- Kaoru Mitoma Anytime Goalscorer (+375)
- Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer (-120)
- Joao Pedro Over 0.5 shots on target (-175)
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
