This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Liverpool look maintain their gap at the top of the table when they travel to Birmingham to take on Aston Villa on Wednesday.
Aston Villa were held to a 1-1 draw against Ipswich Town over the weekend, furthering their gap from the top six. The Villans made a lot of moves at the transfer deadline, but those moves have yet to take their shape thanks to numerous defensive injuries.
Liverpool have been busy the past few weeks playing a Merseyside derby last Wednesday that ended in a draw and then hung on to beat Wolves 2-1 over the weekend. They were hardly dominant in either of those matches, so this one doesn't figure to be straightforward.
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Premier League Best Bets for Aston Villa vs. Liverpool
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Now that Jhon Duran is off to the Saudi Pro League, Ollie Watkins has become the main man up top for Aston Villa.
Even though Duran is a great striker, the reality is that Watkins was actually their most productive striker. He has 11 goals on the season and a 0.63 xG per 90-minute scoring rate, which is the fourth best mark in the Premier League.
Liverpool's defense has been a little leaky lately and in this match they are likely going to press Aston Villa, which is going to allow Watkins some runs in behind.
At +187, I like the value on him to find the back of the net.
Watkins to score +187
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Betting on Player Shots
At 3.76 shots per 90 minutes, Diogo Jota is actually Liverpool's leader and not Mohamed Salah. Jota is often the one playing as the No. 9 because of his ability to drop deep and play in between the lines, but it's his positioning in the box that makes him so good.
He's been injured a lot, which has led to inconsistent playing time, but with Cody Gakpo out Wednesday, Jota should feature in the XI again. Darwin Nunez would be his main competition for minutes in that role.
I like the value on him to have over 2.5 shots at +110.
Jota over 2.5 shots +110
Betting on Goalkeeper Saves
Villa are limping into this match defensively as most of their back line is injured after midfielder-turned-center-back Boubacar Kamara was injured over the weekend.
Pau Torres, Amadou Onana and Kamara are all out for this match, while Ezri Konsa and Matty Cash are doubts to make the XI. That being the case, they'll likely play passively in this match. Unai Emery typically wants them to play a high line, but I don't think that is going to be the best tactic out of possession against this Liverpool team.
That likely means that Villa are going to be defending in a low defensive block and their goal is going to be under siege for a majority of the match.
I like the value on Emiliano Martinez to have over 4.5 saves at +137.
Martinez over 4.5 saves +137
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool Betting Picks
- Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer (+187)
- Diogo Jota Over 2.5 shots (+110)
- Emi Martinez Over 4.5 saves (+137)
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