This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: Everton vs. Brentford
- 10:00 am: Leeds United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- 10:00 am: Leicester City vs. Chelsea
- 10:00 am: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Nottingham Forest
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Harry Kane (TOT vs. NFO, $9,700): Tottenham bowed out of the Champions League on Tuesday in disappointing fashion after a toothless performance at home against AC Milan that saw them create little in terms of scoring chances despite having to chase the game from the start. The result was hardly a surprise based on their recent form. I bring that up because Saturday's matchup at home against Nottingham Forest is among the softest they'll have all season. The odds say the same as Spurs have a two-goal implied total and Harry Kane is -150 to score. I almost never recommend Kane for cash games, but he's a viable option in any format based on the numbers. Tottenham are 67-percent favorites and no other player on the slate has better than +140 odds to score.
Son Heung-Min (TOT vs. NFO, $8,500): Son has struggled this season, without question. His goal contributions are down and his floor hasn't been as high or as consistent as in past seasons. The matchup at home against Forest is about as good as gets, however, and his recent form has left him a bit underpriced. I'd expect him to be the most popular forward in cash games considering he's $1,200 cheaper than Kane.
Demarai Gray (EVE vs. BRE, $7,800) or Dwight McNeil (EVE vs. BRE ($8,400): Outside of Tottenham, Gray and McNeil are the top options at forward. McNeil arguably has the highest floor at the position while Gray, now operating in a false-nine role, has more goal upside with penalty-kick responsibility.
I don't really see a need to go below McNeil or Gray in cash games, but there are plenty of decent GPP options for cheaper. Kai Havertz ($5,900) is too cheap, especially now that he's taking penalties in the absence of Jorginho. Him and Joao Felix ($6,800) will be relatively popular. Bryan Mbeumo ($7,200), Kelechi Iheanacho ($7,100) and Evan Ferguson ($6,800) won't be and therefore can be rostered for leverage. The cheapest I'd be willing to go is whoever starts at center forward for Leeds. Whether it's Georginio Rutter ($5,300) or Patrick Bamford ($4,900), their matchup at home against Brighton has the potential to produce some goals, evidenced by the fact it has the highest implied total of the four. I like the idea of pairing a goalscorer from Leeds with either March or Mac Allister.
MIDFIELDERS
James Maddison (LEI vs. CHE, ($8,700): Maddison seems to have settled back into the role of a monopoly set-piece taker who usually plays 90 minutes. He has a solid floor and big upside for a reasonable salary. The matchup at home against Chelsea isn't ideal, but it isn't prohibitive, either. Some will be put off by it, which increases his appeal for tournaments. I'm still not sure whether I prefer him or Solomon March ($8,300). Brighton are the better team, in better form and their implied total is half a goal higher than Leicester's. I'm not sure there's a right answer and both are viable in any format. So is Alexis Mac Allister ($7,200), who's put up double-digit floor points in three-consecutive games since being deployed in a more attacking role. He also takes penalties and we just saw him convert from the spot a week ago to notch his sixth goal in what's been a breakout season for both club and country.
Brenden Aaronson (LEE vs. BHA, $4,500): If Aaronson was $5,500, I probably wouldn't even mention him. But $4,500 is too cheap for an attacking player who splits corners. He's unlikely to play 90 minutes but still has a higher floor and more upside than anyone else priced below $5,000. He's far from a lock, but there isn't much of anything in this range and second midfielder is the best spot to punt as its opportunity cost is lowest. Ruben Loftus-Cheek ($3,900) would be a fine option if he starts on the right wing in place of Reece James.
DEFENDERS
Ben Chilwell (CHE at LEI, $6,500): Chilwell has been great since returning from injury. He's scored double-digit floor points in all five of his starts as he continues to take the majority of corner kicks for Chelsea. He's too cheap for that role and there's no reason not to roster him in cash games.
Pedro Porro (TOT vs. NFO, $5,500): The same goes for Porro, who's been taking corners and free kicks for Tottenham. We've established what a good spot this should be at home against Forest and it makes Porro seems even more underpriced than Chilwell. I'll be starting my lineups with both of them and going from there.
There are a couple of appealing cheaper options, which means I'll be using three defenders in cash games and on some tournament lineups, as well. If Ben Davies ($4,400) starts on the left wing, he's too cheap considering the upside that the favorable matchup provides. Ricardo Pereira ($3,200) is also too cheap after recovering from a torn Achilles. It was encouraging to see him last the full 90 minutes last weekend. He's not someone I'm overly excited to roster but his floor is certainly higher than the center-backs in the same range.
GOALKEEPER
Fraser Forster (TOT vs. NFO, $5,800): Just looking at the numbers, Forster's win and clean sheet odds are considerably better than the rest. It's hard for me to trust Spurs, however, and it won't be the least bit surprising if Forest knick a goal. I'm unlikely to have enough salary even if I wanted to spend up. Jordan Pickford ($4,800) and David Raya ($4,700) have just under 30-percent clean sheet odds in the matchup with the lowest implied total of the four and I'll have exposure to both in GPPs. Danny Ward ($4,300) and Illan Meslier ($4,200) are cheap and playing at home, which is good enough for me. I wouldn't even mind going all the way down to Keylor Navas ($3,700) if I'm fading Kane. As always, play whoever you want while avoiding negative correlation if possible.
