This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The first Round of 16 matches were all tightly contested despite there being no draws. The next set of first legs features Italian sides Inter Milan and Napoli facing off against Spanish clubs Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. Meanwhile, Porto will be hoping to upset Arsenal and PSV Eindhoven host Dortmund.
UCL Best Bets for Tuesday, Feb. 20
Atletico Madrid to beat Inter Milan +400
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Inter are playing at home and have won eight matches in a row, including a Suppercoppa Italiana title over Napoli, so it makes sense that they are -130 favorites. Atletico Madrid haven't been nearly as successful of late, with defeats in two of their last three matches to Sevilla and Athletic.
That said, Alvaro Morata looks poised to return from a knee sprain after being named to the traveling squad. If he does play, the Spanish club will be able to boast two of the leading scorers in the Champions League with Antoine Griezmann also sitting at five goals in the competition.
Alternative options to the moneyline also offer some appeal, with Atletico draw no bet at +255 and double chance at +105. You could also just target Griezmann (+350) as an anytime goalscorer, but for me, the moneyline value is just too great to pass up on this one.
Niclas Fullkrug to have one or more shot on target -140
I was tempted to just take Dortmund straight up in this one considering they haven't lost since Dec. 9 against RB Leipzig, a 10-match undefeated streak, though six of those contests ended in a draw. The German club is sitting +215 on the moneyline and +125 in a draw no bet, so there is plenty of value there.
Instead, I went for the safer play after trying to hit it big in the other match Tuesday, taking Fullkrug to have one or more shots on target (-140), which means you have to give up a little juice. Over his last five Bundesliga contests, the forward has managed at least one shot on target for a combined 10 over that stretch.
For bigger payouts, other options are to back Fullkrug to score (+200), to have two or more shots on target (+350) or to have three or more shots (+150).
UCL Best Bets for Wednesday, Feb. 21
Arsenal and Porto over 2.5 goals +100
Looking at the four matches this week, Arsenal are the biggest favorite, making them harder to target without having to give up too much. Their moneyline sits at -150 and if you're willing to give up that extra goal and move to -1.5, you can get decent value at +195.
Rather than trying to pick a result, I prefer going to the total and over 2.5 goals since it comes back with even money. The Gunners have racked up 11 goals in their last two matches versus West Ham and Burnley. As always, more value can be found by moving the over to 3.5 (+250), but I'll stick with the default in this one.
As far as who is going to score those goals, Bukayo Saka is riding a four-match goal-scoring streak in Premier League action, including a brace in each of his last two outings. Getting a player that hot as an anytime goalscorer (+180) seems like free money.
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Robert Lewandowski to score +140
Lewandowski went seven league matches without scoring a goal but since the calendar flipped to February, he has scored in three straight, including a brace against Celta Vigo on Saturday. There are plenty of ways to back him, including to score a goal or give an assist at just better than even money (+110).
There are also options for shots, whether it's two or more on target (+150) or three or more shots (-150), but even during this recent run, he doesn't have a lot of volume in either of these categories.
Instead, this is a spot to just keep it simple with anytime goalscorer for Lewandowski which returns a solid +140. You could consider adding first or last goalscorer, which both come in at +400, but again, keep this one simple.
UCL Betting Picks Round of 16
- Atletico Madrid to beat Inter Milan +400
- Niclas Fullkrug to have one or more shot on target -140
- Arsenal and Porto over 2.5 goals +100
- Robert Lewandowski to score +140
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