This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
We always talk about how our process is often correct on Kits & Wagers, but sometimes the results don't show it. This past midweek, I think my process was wrong on a a couple games. I mistakenly thought Marcelo Bielsa would play his regulars on a short week and Leeds would return to last season's form against a struggling Crystal Palace back line. I also assumed Norwich would play in a high-paced match at Newcastle despite giving a more defensive look in recent contests under Dean Smith.
I read those matches wrong, plain and simple. Playing on a short week already involves roster rotation, but when you misread other things, that's when bets really go off the rails. Fortunately, there isn't time to rest and Gameweek 15 is this weekend.
Record: 46-36-4. Up $1,326 on $100 bets.
The Plays
West Ham were +425 late Wednesday and when I started writing this article Thursday, they were +380 to beat Chelsea. While that's a good sign, I'm not comfortable taking the Hammers to beat any of the top teams. They beat up on the minnows, but they continue to struggle against the best teams. While Chelsea have a ton of injuries, Romelu Lukaku could be back in the XI Saturday and maybe more relevant is that West Ham didn't score in either meeting last season.
I'd rather get back to winning with what has been one of my favorite bets. The 'No' on both teams to score between Southampton and Brighton is -105 after being +100 the day prior. The injury to Jan Bednarek is worrying, but I feel great betting against Brighton, who have two goals in their last four matches. Southampton have allowed multiple goals in each of their last three, but I'm not too worried that Brighton will continue that streak. Even on the other end, Southampton aren't guaranteed to score. Considering under 2.5 goals is at -140, I'll take the better route and get -105 odds for both teams not to score.
I probably should be winning more money on Liverpool than I have, as they've been one of the more predictable teams in the league due to their dominance. I won a couple bets the last few matches but didn't put them in anything against Everton. They are almost identical favorites at Wolves as they were against Everton and that's good enough for me. Wolves haven't scored in three of their last four matches, most recently against Norwich and Burnley. Liverpool clean sheets haven't been reliable away from home, but the Wolves attack doesn't scare me in this matchup. That leads me to Liverpool to win in a shutout at +120. You can also bet over 2.5 Liverpool goals at +145 or even Liverpool -1.5 at +120. I'm going with the shutout first because there is a slim chance this finishes 1-0, but I also like the -1.5 play at the same odds.
I'm probably forcing this bet, but I really want to bet on Steven Gerrard and Aston Villa, as they've played a specific style the last three matches which led to just 1.04 expected goals for Man City last game. Before that, Crystal Palace had an xG of .88 and Brighton were at .52. I'm forcing it because this is a tricky spot since Leicester City don't seem to be having trouble hitting the back of the net led by a revived James Maddison. Still, it's another short week and Maddison has had injury issues, so there's a chance he doesn't start.
As of writing, the Aston Villa pick 'em (draw no bet) was at -135, so I'll likely wait until match time with hopes that number drops. I think Villa will get at least a point out of this match, no matter what injuries they have. I'm forcing it because I'm taking under 2.5 goals at +100. Leicester have six goals in their last two matches, but they also had just one in the prior three. They had 1.36 xG last match (scored two) and 2.05 xG (scored four) before that, so I'm banking on that luck to end. Normally, I'd be worried about Villa scoring three in this spot, but they aren't getting a ton of opportunities under Gerrard, so I'll back that to continue.
Arsenal's four losses this season have come against Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United. Otherwise, they have the quality to beat every team in the league, especially one that is reeling, as Everton have dropped six of their last seven. Playing in front of fans hasn't seemed to matter much, so I'm taking the bold strategy of Arsenal away from home in back-to-back matches. Everton won both meetings last season, but they didn't have more than .65 xG in either game. I'll bank on Arsenal's consistency against what has been maybe the worst side in the league the last two months. Arsenal are +115 to win and +245 to win in a shutout. You can also get under 2.5 goals at -120.
I don't usually do this, but you can parlay Liverpool (-255), Manchester City (-500) and Tottenham -260 to win for +131 odds. This probably isn't going to hit because it's obvious and I can definitely see Tottenham ruining the bet with a scoreless draw.
I had a couple more things written down, but I'm not backing any more promoted sides away from home. Brentford couldn't do anything against Tottenham on Thursday and there's a decent chance the same happens to Norwich. If you wanted to bet that match, Tottenham to win in a shutout is +125.
