This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The biggest thing about betting in the new Premier League season is that there will be stadiums full of fans, something that hasn't happened in 18 months. While teams have had fans behind them in recent friendlies, it's not the same. In addition to this being the opening weekend, which is always a little more unpredictable, there will now be fans, meaning weird stuff could happen.
Watford are home and in the Premier League again, but does that matter if they aren't very good? How much home-field advantage will teams like Everton and Tottenham have with new managers? Does it matter that Norwich are home against Liverpool?
I think Brentford manager Thomas Frank said it best about fans, "I expect two things from Friday; my players will run themselves into the ground and the fans will be right behind us through every minute. This is the kick-off to a new world where we have never been before."
That said, I'm going to bet on a lot of home sides this weekend.
THE PLAYS
If Manchester United didn't have some fitness issues, I'd probably bet on them given how Leeds have looked in preseason. Instead, I'll jump on Chelsea, who are -400 to beat Crystal Palace. You can get them -2 at +150, which seems like a great idea for a home opener. Chelsea won by a combined 8-1 scoreline in two matches last season and Palace haven't done anything significant to their squad except lose Eberechi Eze to injury and Andros Townsend to Everton. Marc Guehi is expected to debut at center-back, but I'm not sure a former Swansea City defender is enough to sway my bet.
Also in that early Saturday slot, Leicester City are -145 to beat Wolverhampton. Wolves were a favorite of mine the last couple seasons, as they roughed things up against top clubs and often kept things tight. However, they have a new manager in Bruno Lage, who couldn't hold onto his job at Benfica, which is telling. Wolves get back Raul Jimenez, but with a healthy James Maddison, Harvey Barnes and Jamie Vardy to open the season, I'll take the Foxes to win outright. They are a better team and I already took them to finish as the top club outside of the big six (+130 odds).
I'd bet against Everton, but they're home and it's unknown if either Richarlison or Dominic Calvert-Lewin will start. If neither starts, I'd probably lean on Southampton for a win or draw (-105), and even then I'd be tentative following the departures of Danny Ings and Jannik Vestergaard.
Norwich City are home, but I'm not sure that stops them from losing to a much better team. Norwich lost 3-0 to Newcastle in their last friendly with a lot of regulars in the squad and given how their previous season in the Premier League went, I think their back line will struggle again. Two seasons ago, Liverpool opened the campaign with a home 4-1 win against Norwich.
While Norwich added pieces like Billy Gilmour, Milot Rashica and Pierre Lees-Melou, they also lost their best player in Emiliano Buendia. Throw in COVID-19 issues in the preseason and they face a massive test in the opener, leading me to Liverpool -2 at +160. This is the same idea as the Chelsea bet in that they could give up a goal or two but still cash because four or five goals are on the table in these matchups.
If you like betting goals, Liverpool over 3.5 is +285 and Chelsea over 3.5 is +390. Scoring four-plus goals doesn't happen often, but when it does, it's usually against the teams battling relegation.
Sunday only features two matches since Saturday's schedule is back to normal, but there's still money to be won. West Ham are coming off a somewhat dream season, but they didn't add anyone and lost Jesse Lingard. They finished sixth in the table because they feasted on weaker competition, outside of one team: Newcastle.
The Magpies won last season's opener 2-0 at London Stadium and also won the reverse fixture 3-2. Similarly, Newcastle didn't add anyone relevant, but Callum Wilson is healthy again and will open the season. With fans in the stands, Newcastle +225 to win doesn't feel like a safe bet, but it makes sense. I think they're a tad underrated in this spot and if you want to play it safer, draw no bet is a decent +140.
For the Gameweek 1 finale, Tottenham host Manchester City in a match that may not feature Harry Kane or Kevin De Bruyne. In three matches without Kane last season, Spurs lost the first two 1-0 to Brighton and Chelsea, and then beat Southampton 2-1 late in the season when everyone was beating Southampton. Tottenham have played well under Nuno Espirito Santo in the preseason, drawing Chelsea and beating Arsenal, but I'm still not sold on them performing against Man City, even at home.
Instead of taking a side, I'll go under 2.5 goals at +105. I don't think Manchester City's attack is at its peak after a busy summer for most of their players and, similar to the Community Shield against Leicester, they could have a hard time finding the back of the net. It's the same situation on the other side because without Kane, I'm still not sure Tottenham can perform against better teams.
