Pennzoil 400 Preview: West Coast Swing Concludes

With Phoenix Raceway now in our rearview mirror, we conclude our travel out west this week in Nevada. The NASCAR Cup Series will make their early-season visit to Sin City this weekend for the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The intermediate oval in the Nevada desert hosts the Pennzoil 400 this Sunday afternoon. With this being the second race on an intermediate oval for the campaign, we need to get our notebooks handy. This race will be a good example of what we can expect going forward for many of the drivers on similar style ovals. Those who perform well at Las Vegas are set up to run well at upcoming facilities like Homestead, Texas and Kansas. This style of track makes up a vast percentage (43%) of the ovals that the Cup Series races on, so this 400-mile event will be an early season barometer for what's to come. The drivers that succeed this week will be ones to watch in the coming weeks.

LVMS is like many intermediate ovals on the Cup Series schedule. While the banking and configuration varies a bit from the other cookie cutter tracks, Las Vegas should be a good indicator of what to expect for most of the drivers early in 2025 on these style ovals. Since historical data is so valuable in developing our weekly driver list, we'll take a quick look at these track specific statistics. The loop stats in the table below span the last 20 years of competition at this 1.5-mile oval. Let's take a look at the loop stats for the last 27 races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for some background on the drivers.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been a track of parity for several years. However, we've seen the advantage shift somewhat to Chevrolet teams in the last few seasons. Chevrolet drivers have won three of the last four events at the Las Vegas oval. Still, all three manufacturers have put a driver in victory lane at LVMS since 2021, so parity still exists. In this event one year ago the Cup Series returned to the Nevada desert and Kyle Larson rolled into victory lane for the second consecutive time at the 1.5-mile oval. With Larson picking up that solid victory, we saw a Ford driver upset the bowtie party in the fall installment at the track last October. Joey Logano rose late to take the lead from Chevrolet driver, Daniel Suarez, and captured an important playoff win for the Ford brand in his march into the championship round of the playoffs. Christopher Bell was coming on strong over the final laps and nearly caught Logano as the two took the checkered flag that day. That is a good shot of confidence for both the Ford and Toyota brand of drivers heading into Sunday's Pennzoil 400. 

However, before we cede the trophy to a Ford or Toyota camp, we need to realize that contenders will also come from the Chevrolet stable this weekend. Hendrick Motorsports drivers for Chevrolet captured the three Las Vegas races prior to last October's South Point 400. Chevrolet drivers have four victories of the last six events at Vegas and are clearly the favorites despite Logano's win here last fall. When we look at the way these recent races at the Vegas oval have played out, anyone can surge at the end of these events with the right pit and race strategy and pull off the upset. Late cautions and overtime finishes open the door to this type of anarchy. The following drivers are our picks for fantasy racing success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The three-time Las Vegas winner comes to Nevada this week in need of a strong performance after a couple tough outings in the early season. The Hendrick Motorsports star owns three victories and four runner-up finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, so he always seems to be in the running for the win here. Larson cracks the Top-5 at an impressive 47-percent rate and the Top-10 at a 71-percent rate at this facility. With close to 630 laps led for his career at this track, it's clear that Larson has this place zeroed-in. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet dominated this event one year ago at LVMS with 181 laps led and the win in last March's Pennzoil 400. If Chevrolet hopes to resume their winning ways in Sin City, those hopes will largely ride with Larson and the No. 5 team this Sunday afternoon.

William Byron – Byron won this event two years ago for his first-career victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He led 176 laps that afternoon and dominated his way to the easy win. Byron has posted great qualifying efforts at this intermediate oval dating back to 2021. He has Top-4 starting spots in six of his last eight starts in the Nevada desert. That strong qualifying and good starting track position are leading to challenges for the win. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet now has 14-career Cup starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, so the experience is starting to stack up. While his stats aren't eye-popping, with his win in this event two seasons ago, we believe Byron and company are ready to start stacking up Las Vegas victories.

Christopher Bell – Bell was the strongest Toyota driver down the stretch run of last season on the mid-sized ovals. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster had a runner-up finish, three Top 5's and four Top 10's in his last four intermediate oval events of 2024. He'll carry that momentum into Sunday's Pennzoil 400. Bell has won three of the last six pole positions at Las Vegas Motor Speedway so qualifying has been superb for the No. 20 Toyota team. Finishing has been equally strong for this driver and team as Bell has nabbed two runner-up finishes and three Top-5 finishes in his last four Las Vegas starts. The wins have not come yet, but they are drawing nearer with each start in the Arizona desert. Bell led a whopping 155 laps here last fall before finishing runner-up to Logano in the South Point 400.

Joey Logano – Logano is a four-time Las Vegas winner (2019, 2020, 2022 and 2024) and he always seems to have a strong race car when the Cup Series visits the Nevada race track. With over 540 laps led at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the Penske Racing star has had more than his fair share of racing up front here. The veteran driver cracks the Top 5 at this facility at a strong 35-percent rate and Top 10 at an equally strong 61-percent. Logano and the No. 22 Ford team haven't started the season well with tough luck in most of his opening four races, so a very driven, motivated and purposeful driver will be focused on Las Vegas this Sunday. Among the many intermediate ovals on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, Las Vegas is one of Logano's best.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has led over 400-career laps and rides a three-race Vegas Top-10 streak into this week's action. That's a break with Hamlin's career record at this Nevada race track, but a clear trend going forward. His career numbers at LVMS have improved dramatically over the past few seasons. His average finish has lowered to a respectable 12.3 and his 14 Top-10 finishes check in now at a strong 54-percent rate. Hamlin has been pretty spotless at this oval since the 2020 season in which time he's grabbed one victory and four Top-5 finishes. Last season the Joe Gibbs Racing star picked up a pair of eighth-place finishes at the Nevada oval, and that would be a good target to expect this Sunday afternoon. 

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing star has started the season well and currently sits third-place in the driver points as we come to Las Vegas. Reddick will look to stay hot in the Pennzoil 400 this Sunday afternoon. The thing most will observe about Reddick this week is that he's a 50-percent career Top-10 finisher at LVMS. That's a pretty steady level of performance. In this event one year ago, Reddick drove his No. 45 Toyota to a strong runner-up finish in the Pennzoil 400. That lowered his career average finish at this facility to a fantasy worthy 15.7. He's cracked the Top 10 in five of his last seven starts at this facility and that's a clip well above his career 50-percent Top-10 rate. 

Ross Chastain – Prior to the move to Trackhouse Racing, Chastain really had an unremarkable record at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He was 0-for-7 in starts vs Top 10's at the intermediate Nevada oval. That all changed when Chastain moved to Trackhouse Racing in 2022. In the six starts at Vegas since, he's led 153 total laps and grabbed four Top-5 finishes in those six efforts. The 5.5 average finish across the span is very eye opening and impressive. Chastain and the No. 1 Chevrolet team raced to a steady seventh-place finish at Vegas last October in the South Point 400. That's a good last look at this track and a measure of potential for Pennzoil 400.

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet is a one-time Vegas winner (2022) and he's collected three Top-5 finishes here in his last five starts. That has boosted his career Top-5 rate at the Nevada oval to a respectable 27-percent. Bowman's career numbers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway are nothing to write home about. Much like Ross Chastain, Bowman had to make the shift to Hendrick Motorsports for his performance to come alive at this track. In last October's South Point 400 the veteran driver qualified an excellent third on the grid and drove to a strong fifth-place finish at LVMS. The notes from that race last fall will come in handy for Bowman and crew chief Blake Harris.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Las Vegas & solid upside

Kyle Busch – The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet is off to a good start this season. With Top 10's in three of the first four events, Busch rides a lofty eighth in the points into Vegas. He has enjoyed a good bit of success at his home state track over the years. Busch owns 15 Top-10 finishes in 27-career starts for a stout 56-percent rate. The Richard Childress Racing star is a one-time winner at Las Vegas and he cracks the Top 5 at a robust 44-percent rate. With 329-career laps led at LVMS, he's had his share of strong cars at the 1.5-mile Nevada oval. Busch has started this season well with great outings and we believe he'll be very competitive again in Sunday's Pennzoil 400.     

Chris Buescher – Buescher is another veteran driver who has started the season well. Like Kyle Busch, he's also forged Top 10's in three of the four opening events of 2025. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver doesn't have the career numbers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway that endorse a fantasy start this weekend. However, recent outings have shown promise. In last October's South Point 400, Buescher had no trouble driving from 22nd on the starting grid to a steady 10th-place finish at LVMS. That was his third Top-15 finish in his last five starts at the Vegas oval, and a very good last look heading into this weekend's action. We expect Buescher and the No. 17 Ford team to challenge the Top 10 again in this 400-mile battle.

Daniel Suarez – The Trackhouse Racing veteran is off to a rough start this season, much of it due to just bad luck. The speed of the No. 99 team has been decent. This should be the weekend where Suarez starts to dig out of his early-season hole. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been a good track for Suarez in recent visits. He's earned two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last four starts in Sin City. The most recent of those yielded a Las Vegas career-best finish of third-place in last October's South Point 400. Suarez has led a combined 72 laps in just his last two starts at LVMS alone and that is roughly half his career laps led at the facility. We like Suarez to impress this Sunday afternoon.              

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has been inconsistent to start the 2024 season but has managed a decent 12th-place ranking in the driver standings coming to Las Vegas. Up next is Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and the driver of the No. 23 Toyota hasn't exactly had a lot of success at this track. Wallace has a 14-percent Top-10 rate here; however, his most recent starts have been very competitive and productive for the No. 23 Toyota team. With one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last four starts at the Vegas oval, he's started to reverse some of the early-career struggles he's had a LVMS. Wallace has been a steady performer on intermediate ovals dating back to last season. He earned a steady 12th-place finish in his last Vegas start last October and should be at least that good this weekend.

Brad Keselowski – The three-time Las Vegas winner looks to keep his strong resume at this oval going in the Pennzoil 400. Keselowski is off to a slow start this season and will be looking to rebound in Sin City. His stats at this Las Vegas facility has been incredibly strong throughout his career. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing star has three wins, two runner-up finishes and 13 Top-10 finishes at the Vegas oval. It's for this reason alone that we think Keselowski will be strong this weekend. The driver of the No. 6 Ford has some ground to make up and some room to improve over his start to this season. Keselowski has been a top performer at this track over the years, and he'll get a chance to prove his skill once again. 

John Hunter Nemechek – Nemechek is the lower tier fantasy driver that is off to a torrid start to the new season. He has one Top-5, two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes thru the first four events. The Legacy Motor Club driver comes to Nevada a lofty 13th in the driver point standings. We'll see if Nemechek can stay on a roll at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He has four-career starts at LVMS and he came away with his best performance in last October's South Point 400. Nemechek started back in the field and drove to a strong ninth-place finish. The notes from that outing will come in very handy this weekend. Nemechek earned a Top 10 recently at the similar sized oval in Atlanta, so we have great optimism for the No. 42 Toyota team this Sunday afternoon.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week 

Chase Elliott – Among the top tier drivers Elliott is the one to fade this weekend. Despite good numbers on these cookie cutter ovals last season, Las Vegas has been an outlier to his success. In 15-career starts he's only earned five Top-10 finishes at this track (33-percent) and his average finish of 19.6 is much higher than we like to see in an elite tier driver. Elliott's struggles at LVMS have been recent as well. He's failed to crack the Top 10 in his last four visits to Nevada with an average finish of 24.5 across the span. Elliott ran into trouble and DNF's in last October's South Point 400, and that's not a confidence builder ahead of Sunday's Pennzoil 400.  

Ryan Blaney – Another elite driver to fade this weekend is Blaney and his No. 12 Ford team. After a strong start to the season he's run into trouble the last two races and it culminated with engine problems and a DNF at Phoenix this past Sunday. The Penske Racing star is looking to regroup and recover ahead of Las Vegas this weekend. It could be an uphill battle for this driver and team though. Despite some modest success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Blaney ran into some trouble here in last October's South Point 400. He would finish several laps down to the leaders in a distant 32nd-place. The recent span shows that Blaney has just two Top 10's in his last six Las Vegas starts. That's well below his career 59-percent Top-10 rate at this track.  

Michael McDowell – Despite a decent start to the season, we have to recommend benching McDowell this weekend. This veteran driver has had his share of issues at the Nevada oval over the years. In 22-career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway McDowell has no Top-10 finishes and seven DNF's. The average finish is checking in at a disappointing 28.7. His efforts at Vegas last season netted 20th- and 25th-place finishes which are a bit better than his career average but still not worthy of fantasy consideration. Keep the No. 71 Chevrolet team on the fantasy racing bench this weekend and save McDowell's starts for better tracks.    

Austin Cindric – After the predictable Top-10 finish in the Daytona 500 it's been nothing but struggles for Cindric and the No. 2 Ford team ever since. A rebound performance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway doesn't seem very likely as this is an oval where Cindric has struggled throughout his Cup Series career. In six-career starts he has just one Top-10 finish vs. four finishes outside the Top 20. The average finish is an unreliable 23.3 across the span. Cindric's start here last October ended with an early-race crash and DNF. It's best to keep this driver and team out of the fantasy lineup this weekend and deploy them at a much friendlier Talladega Superspeedway later in the spring.