This article is part of our DFS NPB series.
Tuesday's NPB slate kicked off the first full week of baseball in Japan with another rather low-scoring day, with two sides (the Dragons and Fighters) getting shut out while nine teams scored four or fewer runs. Only the Lions had a big day at the plate, as they scored six runs in four innings in Matt Moore's NPB debut in a game they'd eventually win 11-3. Haruhiro Hamaguchi had the best pitching performance of the day, striking out seven Dragons in 8.1 scoreless innings. On the offensive side, a pair of former big-leaguers, the BayStars' Tyler Austin and the Lions' Cory Spangenberg, both had four-hit games. Bats across the league could finally start to wake up Wednesday, as there are few reliable pitchers on the mound with teams across the league trotting out their fifth starters.
Pitchers
Shuta Ishikawa ($7,700) looks like one of the more interesting options on a day full of unreliable arms, despite being the cheapest starter available. His very low price tag is presumably a reflection of the fact that he threw just three innings at the NPB level last year. Elbow issues, which dated back to the 2018 playoffs, wiped out nearly his entire 2019 campaign, but he made his comeback in late September and was able to contribute to the Hawks' Japan Series victory, so he should be considered healthy heading into this year. His solid 3.42 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 228.2 career innings makes him one of the best options on the day, and he's worth a look at his very cheap price even against a Lions side which led the league in scoring last year.
Aren Kuri ($10,700) also faces a tough matchup against the Giants, who lost to the Hawks in the Japan Series after leading the Central League in scoring last season. Kuri didn't excel last year, but his 3.51 ERA stands out among a rather shaky group. His 19.3 percent strikeout rate and 8.2 percent walk rate similarly won't turn heads but nevertheless sit amongst the best numbers in this set of arms. The 28-year-old had a down season in 2018, but his 2019 marks are right in line with his 2017 numbers, so there's good reason to believe he'll be a perfectly adequate starter this year, making him one of the top options in a rather weak group.
On the opposite side of that same contest, C.C. Mercedes ($9,300) seems similarly interesting. In 212.1 innings over his two-year NPB career, he owns a strong 2.88 ERA. His 3.52 ERA last season was less impressive but still perfectly adequate. His 17.4 percent strikeout rate was nothing special but looks fine next to his 5.5 percent walk rate. There's not a ton of upside here, but with a matchup against the Carp, who ranked a modest seventh in scoring last season, Mercedes nevertheless looks like one of the better options on the slate.
Top Targets
Hayato Sakamoto ($8,200) is one of the most expensive hitters on the slate, but that price is justified based on his performance thus far, as he's grabbed at least one hit in all four games this year, going 6-for-14 with a pair of steals. That hot start shouldn't be a surprise, as he won the Central League MVP last season after hitting .312/.396/.575 with 40 homers, excellent numbers at any position, let alone shortstop. He'll face the aforementioned Kuri in this one, who's not a particularly intimidating pitcher despite being one of the better options in Wednesday's shallow pool.
Neftali Soto ($7,100) hasn't fully gotten going this season, as he's homered once but has just three hits in four games. When he does get going, though, he's one of the best bats in NPB, hitting .288 with an average of 42 homers in his first two seasons in the league. He'll face the Dragons' 20-year-old righty Takumi Yamamoto on Wednesday, whose 2.98 ERA in 45.1 innings as a rooke wasn't backed up at all by his 13.9 percent strikeout rate and his 12.4 percent walk rate.
Bargain Bats
Ryoya Kurihara ($3,300) is quite cheap for a player who has held down one of the top two spots in the defending-champion Hawks' lineup in all four games so far this season. He's looked like he belonged, going 6-for-18 with three doubles. The 23-year-old's cheap price tag makes sense given his track record prior to this year, as he'd accomplished very little in just 46 career NPB games split across three seasons, but the Hawks seem to trust him and he's proven them right thus far.
While Shuta Ishikawa was mentioned above as one of the better pitching options on this slate, none of Wednesday's pitchers is good enough that they should scare you away from using hitters against them. If you aren't including Ishikawa yourself, consider Cory Spangenberg ($4,500), who will lead off for the Lions against him. That price and lineup position for the team which led the league in scoring last year are enough reasons on their own to give him a look, but his resume as a former MLB player gives him a further bump, as he spent parts of six seasons at the highest level, recording a respectable 92 wRC+. He grabbed just one hit in his first three NPB games but broke out in a big way Tuesday, hitting a grand slam as part of a four-hit performance.
Stacks To Consider
Swallows vs. Joe Gunkel: Tetsuto Yamada ($8,000), Norichika Aoki ($7,000), Munetaka Murakami ($7,500)
Former MLB players who have yet to prove themselves at the NPB level deserve the benefit of the doubt early on, as the fact that they've been able to appear at the highest level in any capacity bodes well for their future in the second-best league in the world. It's not clear that the same logic applies to 28-year-olds like Gunkel who headed overseas before ever reaching the MLB level, however. Gunkel's numbers in parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level are perfectly adequate, but a 3.80 ERA as a 27-year-old minor-league is far from exciting, especially when paired with a modest 16.7 percent strikeout rate.
Yamada leads this stack despite a pair of hitless games in his last two outings and despite not getting the platoon advantage, as few hitters in Japan have his kind of all-around upside. He's a near lock for 30 homers and 30 steals, something he's done in four of the last five seasons, and he makes great contact as well, hitting over .300 in three of those years. His spot near the top of the Swallows' order has helped him cross the 100-run threshold five times.
Aoki, who has six years of MLB experience to his name, follows Yamada out of the number three spot and will get the platoon advantage against Gunkel. He's gone just 3-for-15 through his first four games of the year but has been a productive bat nonetheless, as he has a homer, two doubles, two runs and two RBI. Even at age 38, he remains a threat at the plate, as he hit .298/.385/.442 with 16 homers last season.
Cleanup man Murakami, who will also get the platoon advantage Wednesday, rounds out this fairly expensive stack. He's hitting .400 with a homer, a double and three walks through his first four games of the season. His power should be more reliable than his average going forward, as he hit just .231 as a 19-year-old rookie last season but cleared the fence 36 times. He should have a decent shot at his second of the season against Gunkel.
Golden Eagles vs. Ryusei Kawano: Jabari Blash ($5,800), Hideto Asamura ($6,600), Stefen Romero ($5,300)
Very little information is available on Kawano. The 22-year-old lefty will be making not just his NPB debut but will be pitching in his first professional game of any kind. The southpaw was selected eighth overall in last year's NPB draft. His first-round pedigree means he could one day be one of the better pitchers in the league, but there's little reason to believe he'll be at that level in the first game of his career.
MLB fans might remember Blash, who showed big raw power but little else in his 123-game big-league career with the Padres and Angels, hitting .186/.306/.307 with a 38.3 percent strikeout rate. There's generally not a ton to be gained by splitting a small sample into even smaller pieces, but it's worth noting he did fare far better against lefties, posting a .713 OPS against them but a .551 mark against right-handers. He looked good in his first season in Japan last year, hitting .261/.397/.540 with 33 homers, and makes for a strong, affordable option batting out of the number three spot.
Asamura follows Blash as the cleanup hitter and will also get the platoon advantage against Kawano. The second baseman is a very good hitter for the position, hitting .263/.372/.507 with 33 homers, 92 RBI and 93 runs last season, his first with the Golden Eagles after spending his first nine seasons with the Lions. He's shown contact in addition to power in the past, hitting .310 with 32 homers as recently as 2018. The 29-year-old started 2020 on the right foot, going 6-for-16 with a homer through his first four games, and is a good bet to remain hot in this one.
Romero, who's been batting sixth, rounds out this trio of right-handed bats. The outfielder didn't accomplish much in 94 games for MLB's Seattle Mariners in the middle of last decade, hitting just .195/.242/.307, but he's carved out a solid career in Japan. His 2019 campaign, which he spent with the Buffaloes, was his best yet, as he hit .305 with 18 homers and 63 RBI in just 81 games. While it would be nice if he hit higher in the order, he's nevertheless a strong and inexpensive option.
