This article is part of our DFS NPB series.
Wednesday's slate featured a relatively modest amount of runs and included a pair of shutouts, with the Hawks and Buffaloes blanking the Fighters and Lions. Orix and Chunichi set the pace with six runs apiece, and eight home runs were hit overall. That included the first for long-time MLB slugger and first-year NPB player Justin Bour, who laced a solo shot in the ninth inning of a 6-3 loss for the Tigers. The Buffaloes' Yu Suzuki and the Hawks' Masanori Ishikawa were two of the star arms of the night, with Ishikawa impressively racking up 10 strikeouts against the Fighters.
Thursday's slate has two elite arms to pay up for in Aren Kuri and Rick van den Hurk, but luckily, there are some other slightly less expensive options that are also capable of potentially offering similar output. Meanwhile, the presence of questionable pitchers such as Gabriel Ynoa (scheduled starter for the Swallows), Onelki Garcia and Shinichi Ohnuki on the slate brightens the outlook for a number of opposing bats.
Pitchers
Rick van den Hurk ($12,000) saves you $1K in salary off the most expensive pitcher on the slate in Aren Kuri, and he's kicked off his 2020 season demonstrating some of the same dominance he's exhibited since the start of his NPB back in 2015. The veteran right-hander racked up 29.5 DK points last Thursday by holding the Lions to two runs on two hits over 7.2 innings, with the pair of blemishes on his line coming in his final frame. His strikeout upside is substantial, as evidenced by van den hurk's double-digit K/9 metrics in three of his first five seasons in NPB. Thursday, he gets a crack at a Fighters squad that entered Wednesday's action with a league-low .205 team batting average, and while van den hurk has historically had trouble keeping the ball in the park, there's some solace taken from the fact he's yielded a modest three homers over the 25 innings he's pitched since the beginning of the 2019 season.
Daiki Iwashita ($10,400) demonstrated an encouraging level of improvement last season after a rocky 2018 rookie campaign. The 23-year-old right-hander lowered his ERA almost a full run to 3.64 while posting a solid 5-3 mark across 21 appearances. He then got 2020 off to a stellar start at the expense of the Buffaloes last Thursday, ringing up 23.8 DK points on the strength of 5.2 scoreless frames. The matchup this time around is admittedly more formidable – the opposing Golden Eagles entered Wednesday's action with an NPB-high .298 team batting average – but their nine team homers ranked them in the lower half of the league. Iwashita may well be much more of a tournament option due to the proficiency of the opposing lineup, but he certainly has the talent to carry over the momentum from his season-opening start.
Keisuke Honda ($8,200) was only so-so in his 2020 debut last Thursday versus the Hawks, posting 12.9 DK points over a five-inning outing. The 27-year-old right-hander could be a relatively low-owned tournament option in his second start, and he draws a premium matchup with which to buttress his fantasy production. Honda faces a Buffaloes squad that limps in with a league-worst 2-9 record, .217 team batting average and Pacific League-low seven home runs, numbers that could certainly help boost Honda's occasionally average strikeout numbers. With several other arms on the slate likely to garner plenty of attention, Honda may slide a bit under the radar and yet provide a solid return relative to price due to the matchup.
ALSO CONSIDER: Aren Kuri ($13,000)
Top Targets
Kazuma Okamoto ($9,300) is the highest-priced position player, but his body of work thus far this season indicates he's worth the investment. The 24-year-old appears well on his way to putting last season's slight downturn behind him, as he's slashing a jaw-dropping .488/.542/.907 over his first 11 games. Okamoto has quickly racked up five round trippers, putting him well on pace for a third consecutive 30-homer season. Okamoto has also been a bit better on the contact-rate front thus far, whiffing an acceptable eight times over his first 48 plate appearances. He carries a five-game multi-hit, double-digit fantasy-point streak into Thursday's action as well, and he's tallied less than 10 DK points in only two of 11 contests thus far. Slotted into the coveted cleanup spot in an impressive Giants lineup, Okamoto could also benefit from a matchup against BayStars right-hander Shinichi Ohnuki, who scuffled to a 5.00 ERA over 66.2 innings last season and is making his first start of 2020.
Seiya Suzuki ($8,000) broke out of a brief two-game slump Wednesday with a 2-for-3 night against the Swallows, and he'd also demonstrated his considerable upside with a two-homer outing against the Dragons the game before his aforementioned mini-slide. Suzuki is still slashing an impressive .368/.455/.842 despite the recent string of nine hitless at-bats, and he's already compiled over 20 DK points on three occasions this season, including two 30-plus outings. That caliber of numbers is far from an outlier, considering Suzuki has hit .300 or better in each of the last four seasons while slugging between 26 and 30 homers in each of those campaigns. His salary, while certainly not cheap, could arguably shape up as a bargain in retrospect, considering the matchup versus Gabriel Ynoa. The former Baltimore Oriole allowed four earned runs on nine hits over five innings in his first NPB start, and he furnished a 1-10 record, 5.61 ERA, 5.40 xFIP and 2.36 HR/9 across 110.2 innings stateside last year.
Shuta Tonosaki ($6,900) has more power upside than he's shown thus far while leaving the yard just once over his first 43 plate appearances, as he slugged 18 and a career-best 26 homers over the last two seasons, respectively. The lack of pop thus far doesn't mean Tonosaki hasn't been productive, either, as he's slashing .286/.419/.457. The veteran hasn't even gotten on his usual prolific pace of extra-base hits, either, considering he's laced multiple triples in each of the last three campaigns and has upped his doubles totals in each of those seasons as well, topping out at 27 in 2019. Tonosaki is also slotted into the heart of the lineup in the No. 5 hole, and Buffaloes starter Sachiya Yamasaki has finished with an ERA of over 4.00 in four of five NPB seasons while exhibiting significant control issues in 2019 (4.7 BB/9).
Bargain Bats
Jose Pirela ($6,800) carries an appealing price for a leadoff hitter, and he's also gotten his NPB career off to an impressive start. The former Yankee and Padre owns a .370/.383/.543 slash over his first 47 plate appearances (10 games), numbers that have helped lead to an average of 9.5 DK points thus far. Pirela also draws the aforementioned attractive matchup against Swallows starter Ynoa,, who posted a mediocre 13.9 percent strikeout rate against right-handed hitters in MLB last season.
Tomotaka Sakaguchi ($4,300) is an even more bargain-priced top-of-the-order option, and despite the tough matchup versus the Carp's Aren Kuri, he's worthy of consideration due to both price and body of work. Sakaguchi is averaging a solid 8.6 DK points per game on the strength of a .361/.477/.472 slash across his first 10 games. The veteran certainly isn't a power threat, but he's an excellent contact hitter capable of setting the table effectively. If loading up with several of the other attractive bats in good matchups Thursday, Sakaguchi represents a strong cost-savings option to round out your lineup.
ALSO CONSIDER: Zoilo Almonte ($3,900)
Stacks to Consider
Carp vs. Gabriel Ynoa
As already alluded to, Ynoa posted an unsightly body of work during his three-year MLB career, furnishing a 5.39 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. The Carps also boast some of the most formidable long-ball firepower in the NPB during the early going, and all but two of Hiroshima's bats are priced under $5K.
Dragons vs. Onelki Garcia
Garcia posted a 13.50 ERA and 3.00 WHIP across two brief MLB stints with the Dodgers and Royals and also generated ERAs of 4.70 or higher in three different stops in affiliated ball. The southpaw got his season off to a rocky start by getting touched up by five runs on eight hits over four innings, coming on the heels of a pedestrian 6-8 record and 4.79 ERA in 2019.
