This article is part of our DFS NPB series.
Even with Opening Day starters taking the hill across the league, Friday's NPB slate managed to be a fairly high-scoring one, with five teams scoring at least six runs. The Lions and Golden Eagles led the way with seven apiece, with Hotaka Yamakawa leading the way with a two-homer day for the Lions. Elsewhere, Brandon Laird hit his fourth homer of the year, but Seiya Suzuki took the lead with a pair of bombs to give him five on the season. On the pitching side, Takahiro Norimoto led the way with 10 strikeouts while holding the Fighters to just one run on four hits in seven innings in the Golden Eagles' 7-1 win, while Shota Imanaga tossed eight scoreless innings against the Tigers while striking out seven. Expect several more strong pitching performances Saturday with number two starters taking the hill across the league. Note that this slate will contain just five games, as the BayStars at Tigers game starts later than the rest and will not be included.
Pitchers
Atsuki Taneichi ($11,000) is one of the most expensive pitchers on the slate, but his price tag appears to be justified. The 21-year-old dazzled in his first full season last year, cruising to a 3.24 ERA on the back of a 26.7 percent strikeout rate. His 10.1 percent walk rate is something of a worry, but you'd still prefer a high-strikeout, high-walk arm to the opposite for fantasy purposes given the upside the former profile presents. He'll face a fairly easy test Saturday against a Buffaloes team which sits last in the Pacific League in scoring this season.
Yuki Matsui ($7,700) is quite a risk, though that's reflected in his very low price. His risk certainly doesn't come from his talent level, as that's not in any question. He posted a remarkable 1.94 ERA last season striking out 39.5 percent of opposing batters. Those numbers came in relief, however, and it's not clear what he'll look like this season upon transitioning to a rotation role. He only threw four innings in his first start of the year, exiting after allowing one run on six hits while striking out three and walking three. If he consistently makes starts that short, his fantasy value will be limited, but I'm willing to take the risk for at least one more outing given his potential upside, especially against a Fighters lineup which hasn't really gotten going this season, tying for eighth in runs per game.
Like Matsui, Kazuto Taguchi ($10,200) was a reliever last season. His 4.13 ERA was rather unimpressive, with a 1.5 HR/9 (typically a stat that's rather inconsistent from year to year) looking like the primary culprit. Both his 23.9 percent strikeout rate and 6.5 percent walk rate were quite good. Those numbers could regress as he moves back into the rotation this season, but they make for a promising package nonetheless. He'll face a Swallows team which has scored the seventh-most runs thus far this season.
Top Targets
Stefen Romero ($7,900) hit his second homer of the season as part of a three-hit day Friday, raising his slash line through seven games to a remarkable .478/.586/.1.543. While the 31-year-old was a solid performer through his first three NPB seasons, this level of dominance at the plate is unexpected, as his career slash line sits at a strong but hardly dominant .270/.336/.500. It's possible he's legitimately getting better at an age where many players start to decline, though, as his .305/.363/.539 line with 18 homers in just 81 games last season was his best year thus far. Regardless of where exactly his final numbers will end up, he's a strong play Saturday with the platoon advantage against Fighters lefty Takayuki Katoh, who recorded a solid but not intimidating 3.52 ERA last season.
Few hitters in Japan are swinging the bat as well as Brandon Laird ($8,400) right now. The American launched his fourth homer of the season Friday, giving him seven RBI in seven games to go along with a .333/.448/.833 slash line. His power is no surprise, as he hit 26 or more homers per season in his first five years in the league, though the fact that he has more walks (5) than strikeouts (4) is unexpected, as he owns a career 23.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.7 percent walk rate in Japan. While that trend might not continue, he nevertheless could be in line for a big day Saturday with the platoon advantage against lefty Daiki Tajima, who struck out a modest 18.3 percent of opposing batters en route to a decent 3.44 ERA last season.
Bargain Bats
Laird's teammate Shogo Nakamura ($5,400) will also get the platoon advantage against Tajima. He's off to quite a strong start himself, hitting .368/.478/.789 with two homers, two doubles and seven RBI. Expectations for the 28-year-old infielder shouldn't be particularly high, as he hit just .232/.317/.375 lash season, but his hot start this year is enough to make him interesting as a fairly cheap option.
Yoshihiro Maru's ($5,500) cheap price makes sense given his awful start to the season, as he's gone 3-for-27 at the plate with 10 strikeouts, but he's nevertheless still worthy of consideration Saturday. For starters, he bats third for a Giants lineup which leads the league in scoring this season. He'll get the platoon advantage against Swallows righty Yasuhiro Ogawa, who struggled to a 4.57 ERA last season. Those factors make him worth a look on their own, but when you add in the fact that he's been quite a strong hitter over the last several years, hitting above .290 with an OPS of .870 or better for four straight seasons, he looks like a prime bounceback candidate in this one.
Stacks To Consider
Hawks vs. Wataru Matsumoto: Yuki Yanagita ($7,200), Wladimir Balentien ($7,100), Ryoya Kurihara ($3,700)
Matsumoto didn't show much as a rookie last season, posting a 4.54 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 85.1 innings. Judging by his underlying numbers, that was a fair reflection of how well he pitched, as he struck out a modest 16.9 percent of opposing batters while walking 12.0 percent. Judging by his first start of the year against the Fighters, things may not be too different this year, as he allowed just two runs in 6.1 innings but walked more batters (5) than he struck out (4). The defending-champion Hawks shouldn't face too tough a challenge in this one.
Number three hitter Yanagita will get the platoon advantage against an unreliable righty Saturday. He's hitting just .227 through seven games, but his overall .227/.400/.500 line is quite solid, helped by seven walks and a homer. He should be expected to produce performances worthy of his lineup spot going forward, as he owns an excellent .318/.422/547 slash line in his 10-year NPB career. Injuries limited him to just 38 games last season, but he hit .352 with 36 homers and 21 steals in 2018.
Balentien hasn't fully gotten going this year, hitting .222/.267/.481 with nine strikeouts, though he has at least homered twice. When his bat does eventually wake up, though, the cleanup hitter is a sure bet to be one of the top hitters in the league, as he's cleared the 30-homer mark in all eight of his full NPB seasons while posting a lifetime .273 batting average. He doesn't seem to be slowing down, either, as he hit .280 with 33 homers in his age-34 season last year.
Kurihara entered the season having accomplished very little in 46 career NPB games, which explains his low price. The 23-year-old has been trusted with one of the top two spots in the Hawks' order in each game thus far, however, and it's hard to argue he hasn't earned the role, as his three-hit day Friday gave him a .375/.412/.531 season slash line. He'll likely come back to earth at some point, but he's worth a look in most contests as long as he remains this cheap while occupying a key spot in the order for the defending champions.
Carp vs. Kazuki Yoshimi: Seiya Suzuki ($9,200), Jose Pirela ($7,200), Ryoma Nishikawa ($6,800)
Yoshimi spent most of last season in the minors, and it's not hard to see why, given that he struggled to a 6.41 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in 19.2 NPB innings. His 3.87 ERA in 2018 was a respectable enough mark, but it came with a very low 11.8 percent strikeout rate, so it's no surprise to see him fall off hard in his age-34 season. He didn't start his age-35 campaign well, either, giving up four runs in four innings against the Swallows while failing to strike out a single batter. The Carp sit second in the league in scoring so far in the young season and should be set up for a big day here.
Suzuki is the natural hitter to start this stack and, indeed, the natural hitter to build any lineup around at the moment, as he's scoring an incredible 4.3 more DraftKings points per game than any other hitter this season. That's what happens when you hit .462/.548/1.154 with five homers and nine RBI through your first seven games. The hot start shouldn't be too big of a surprise for the potential future MLB player, as he's recorded an OPS north of 1.000 in three of his last four seasons, hitting .335/.453/.565 with 28 homers and 25 steals last season.
Leadoff man Pirela has started his first NPB campaign strong, hitting .333 with one home run through his first seven games. He was a mediocre hitter in parts of six MLB seasons, hitting a modest .257/.308/.392 (good for an 88 wRC+), but he should be set up for success at a lower level of competition. He's yet to walk or steal a base, which is somewhat odd for a leadoff hitter, but he's done enough damage at the plate to be worthy of inclusion given the matchup in this one.
Unlike Suzuki and Pirela, number three hitter Nishikawa will get the platoon advantage against Yoshimi. He's yet to do much at the plate this season, hitting just .233/.281/.400, but his track record suggests he'll pick things up soon. The 25-year-old has been a strong contact hitter through parts of five NPB seasons, hitting a lifetime .296/.340/.438. He's shown modest power at best, though his career-best of 16 homers did come last season, so perhaps he'll continue to develop that skill. A matchup against a very shaky righty could be a great time for his bat to wake up.
