This article is part of our DFS NPB series.
Thursday proved to be a much better night for offense in the NPB than Wednesday, as five teams scored eight runs or more, including a co-nightly-high of nine runs tallied by Nippon in a wild comeback victory over the Hawks. The Lions and Swallows matched that total in their wins as well. Ironically, the highest combined total of the night was the 17 runs scored by the Fighters and Hawks in a game that featured the best pitching matchup on paper.
Friday's slate features a minimum of four projected starters with unblemished 2020 records, but there will still be several exploitable matchups for hitters, as we'll highlight below. That includes multiple bats in spots that could result in them paying off relatively modest salaries handsomely. Conversely, there are multiple sub-$10K pitchers that draw matchups capable of leading them to outperforming their four-figure costs.
Pitchers
Tomoyuki Sugano ($12,200) comes at a slight discount over highest-priced pitching option Shota Imanaga, and he draws a matchup against a Dragons squad that came into Thursday's action with an NPB-low six home runs. Sugano did scuffle his last time out, allowing five earned runs over 5.2 innings to the Swallows. However, he offered a glimpse at his considerable upside in his season debut a start earlier, posting 28.2 DK points on the strength of an eight-strikeout effort over seven innings against Hanshin. Sugano also has a solid chance at a win with the powerful Giants offense supporting him, and he typically offers a formidable
Thursday proved to be a much better night for offense in the NPB than Wednesday, as five teams scored eight runs or more, including a co-nightly-high of nine runs tallied by Nippon in a wild comeback victory over the Hawks. The Lions and Swallows matched that total in their wins as well. Ironically, the highest combined total of the night was the 17 runs scored by the Fighters and Hawks in a game that featured the best pitching matchup on paper.
Friday's slate features a minimum of four projected starters with unblemished 2020 records, but there will still be several exploitable matchups for hitters, as we'll highlight below. That includes multiple bats in spots that could result in them paying off relatively modest salaries handsomely. Conversely, there are multiple sub-$10K pitchers that draw matchups capable of leading them to outperforming their four-figure costs.
Pitchers
Tomoyuki Sugano ($12,200) comes at a slight discount over highest-priced pitching option Shota Imanaga, and he draws a matchup against a Dragons squad that came into Thursday's action with an NPB-low six home runs. Sugano did scuffle his last time out, allowing five earned runs over 5.2 innings to the Swallows. However, he offered a glimpse at his considerable upside in his season debut a start earlier, posting 28.2 DK points on the strength of an eight-strikeout effort over seven innings against Hanshin. Sugano also has a solid chance at a win with the powerful Giants offense supporting him, and he typically offers a formidable combination of solid swing-and-miss stuff with above-average control. The veteran righty is also a workhorse that's rattled off 30 complete games across his last five seasons, including 17 shutouts.
Zach Neal ($9,500) was absolutely masterful in his 2019 NPB debut campaign, going 12-1 with a 2.87 ERA across 17 starts. He's off to an impressive start in his sophomore season as well, posting a 1.46 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 10 strikeouts across his first 12.1 innings. Friday, Neal gets a matchup against the lowly Buffaloes, which have been one of the NPB's weakest offensive teams across the board thus far in 2020. Neal is already averaging an impressive 20.3 DK points over his first two starts, with both of those turns coming at home, just as Friday's does.
Nao Higashihama ($9,000) comes at a solid discount for a pitcher that's gotten 2020 off to such an impressive start. The veteran right-hander has a solid 2.46 ERA and is averaging 13.8 DK points over his first two starts. Higashihama opened the season with a five-inning blanking of the Marines before churning out a quality start against the Lions. The matchup Friday versus the Fighters isn't prohibitive by any stretch, given Nippon's co-NPB-low .202 team batting average and modest 10 team homers. The projected total of 7.5 runs also bodes well for Higashihama's prospects of limiting damage and offering a strong return on a very affordable salary.
ALSO CONSIDER: Takahiro Norimoto ($11,500); Atsushi Endoh ($8,000)
Top Targets
Hideto Asamura ($8,200) is slashing an enticing .370/.463/.804 across his first 12 games, a line partly comprised of 10 extra-base hits (five doubles, five home runs) and 18 RBI. The spectacular numbers are nothing new for the veteran masher, who's been one of the NPB's most prolific hitters over the last seven seasons. Asamura also operates out of a premium spot in the lineup as the cleanup hitter, and while opposing starter Ayumu Ishikawa is a capable veteran hurler, he's not overpowering nor a daunting matchup in any sense at this stage of his career. Asamura also comes in averaging 14.0 DK points per game, an average built on the strength of five tallies of 18 DK points or greater.
Tetsuto Yamada ($7,500) could go a bit lower-owned than deserved due to his sluggish start to the season, one that sees him hitting a modest .250 over his first 11 games. However, that figure is bound to come up for the proven slugger, who's hit 34 homers or more in four of the last five seasons and .304 or greater in four of the last six campaigns as well. Yamada is mired in a 1-for-9 skid over his last two games – a primary culprit for his pedestrian average – but prior to the brief slump, he'd posted double-digit fantasy points in four of five games. He'll draw a thorny matchup on paper against southpaw Shoto Imanaga, but Yamada's upside is capable of leading to some strong leverage in tournaments specifically.
Neftali Soto ($6,200) is certainly another NPB power hitter who's yet to truly break through in 2020, and his price makes him one of the best potential fantasy-point-per-dollar values of the slate. The 31-year-old has blasted a combined 84 home runs over his first two NPB seasons, which has helped lead to 203 RBI across that span. Soto is slashing an excellent .333/.417/.500 over his first 11 games this season, but he has just a sole round tripper and four RBI. The matchup Friday should be attractive for Soto with Masanori Ishikawa taking the hill for the opposing Swallows. The 40-year-old is far from overpowering, especially at this advanced stage of his long career, and he's generated ERAs of between 4.47 and 5.11 in four of the last five campaigns.
Bargain Bats
Daichi Suzuki ($5,800) boasts a .333 average and .365 on-base percentage over his first 12 games while whiffing just eight times across 50 plate appearances. His propensity for consistent contact has helped lead to the six-game hitting streak he carries into Friday's game, a stretch that includes five multi-hit and double-digit fantasy-point efforts. Suzuki typically operates out of the favorable No. 2 spot in the lineup as well and has enjoyed almost all his success to date at home, where he's slashing .405/.425/.486 over a nine-game sample.
Takayuki Kajitani ($4,500) is surprisingly cost-effective for a leadoff hitter sporting a .340/.426/.532 slash across his first 12 games and an average of 10.1 DK points per game for the season. The veteran endured an atypically poor campaign at the plate in 2019, but early returns seem to indicate he's rediscovered the stroke that propelled him to averages of between .268 and .346 in four of the six seasons prior. Kajitani also benefits from the same favorable opposing pitcher matchup that Soto draws Friday, and given the powerful slugger typically hits behind him, Kajitani could benefit from both better pitch selection and his teammate's ability to drive him in with one swing.
ALSO CONSIDER: Cory Spangenberg ($5,500); Shota Dobayashi ($4,300)
Stacks to Consider
BayStars vs. Masanori Ishikawa
As detailed previously, Ishikawa is a particularly hittable pitcher at this point in his career. The 40-year-old right-hander has given up more hits than innings pitched in all but one season since 2012, and he's back at it again this season with 14 hits allowed over 11 frames. Ishikawa also traditionally has had trouble keeping the ball in the park without an elite power pitch, posting a 1.6 HR/9 thus far over this year's small sample and either 1.3 or 1.4 in each of the three seasons prior.
Golden Eagles vs. Ayumu Ishikawa
The other Ishikawa on the slate is also targetable, with the veteran right-hander proving similarly hittable over the last three seasons. Much like the Swallows starter, Ayumu Ishikawa relies much more on guile than power to get by hitters. He does do a solid job of preventing home runs, but the Golden Eagles, which have jumped out to a strong 8-4 mark, went into Thursday's action with an NPB-high .297 team batting average. They also have both the power (13 team home runs) and speed (13 stolen bases) to press the issue and rack up production.
