This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 304 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 304 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Shauna Bannon (5-1-0) v. Alice Ardelean (9-5-0)
Shauna Bannon - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 5 wins
Alice Ardelean - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This is not the best fight to kick off UFC 304, but it's the fight we get. Ardelean is fighting on short notice as a replacement and surely would not have gotten this UFC shot otherwise. Bannon is not exactly UFC caliber, either. However, she does have a UFC fight under her belt and is the current favorite. I honestly can see this fight going either way. If Ardelean gets this to the mat, I think she can keep control for long periods of time or even find an early submission. The more likely version of this fight is Bannon keeps it upright and dominates the striking. Ardelean likely scores better in a win, making this fight dog-or-pass.
UFC 304 Pick: Ardelean
Michael Parkin (9-0-0) v. Lukasz Brzeski (9-4-1)
Michael Parkin - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Lukasz Brzeski - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Brzeski was gifted a decision win in his last fight but has otherwise looked terrible in his UFC tenure. He tends to look out of sorts and is overwhelmed in the Octagon. Parkin has been the opposite, winning all three of his UFC fights. However, though he has won all three fights, none of them have scored well for DFS. I see this fight going in the same direction, Parkin winning a striking match but scoring low.
UFC 304 Pick: Parkin
Sam Patterson (11-2-1) v. Kiefer Crosbie (10-4-0)
Sam Patterson - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Kiefer Crosbie - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a solid fight to target for GPP contests, as one of these fighters is likely to get finished. Patterson is the favorite and will have a considerable edge on the mat. He is expected to exploit the questionable takedown defense of Crosbie and potentially submit him. Crosbie looked great in his debut until he was taken down and submitted in the first round. He will have the edge on the feet in this fight as well. I expect this to be close and like Crosbie's chances of avoiding enough takedowns to either record a knockout or do enough damage for a decision win.
UFC 304 Pick: Crosbie
Muhammad Mokaev (11-0-0) v. Manel Kape (19-6-0)
Muhammad Mokaev - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Manel Kape - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight comes down to whether or not Kape can keep Mokaev's takedowns and control in check. Kape has a significant edge in striking, so if he avoids takedowns he could wind up winning by knockout. However, there has yet to be a fighter who has been able to keep up with the takedowns or cardio of Mokaev, so I do not see it happening. I like Mokaev to continue his onslaught of the division by chaining takedowns and potentially recording another early submission.
UFC 304 Pick: Mokaev
Oban Elliott (10-2-0) v. Preston Parsons (11-4-0)
Oban Elliott - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
Preston Parsons - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Though both fighters have solid striking, I expect this to occur on the mat primarily. Elliott was dominant on the mat in his debut, with three takedowns and nearly nine minutes of control time. On the other side, Parsons has had four, three and seven takedowns with a combined 20 minutes of control time over his last three fights. Parsons is currently the favorite, but money is coming in heavily on Elliott. The fight's winner likely scores well for DFS, and both sides should be targeted. I expect Parsons's experience to play a significant factor in this one.
UFC 304 Pick: Parsons
Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) v. Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0)
Modestas Bukauskas - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
Marcin Prachnio - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Neither fighter has been that impressive in their UFC tenures. Bukauskas has won three in seven, while Prachnio has won four in nine. If Bukauskas uses his reach advantage, he should cruise to a decision win. If he does not, Prachnio will likely lead the fight in strikes as he has done in his last six fights. He tends to struggle when taken down, and since the threat level of being taken down in this fight is nearly non-existent, I would expect him to out-strike Bukauskas. Either way, a lower-scoring DFS score is likely.
UFC 304 Pick: Prachnio
Caolan Loughran (9-1-0) v. Jake Hadley (10-3-0)
Caolan Loughran - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Jake Hadley - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a good test for Loughran, as Hadley has solid UFC experience. I expect this to be a close back-and-forth affair. However, if Hadley gets taken down, he will likely continue accepting being on his back and lose out on valuable time. Loughran will also have a considerable edge on the feet. He is the pick and should score well in a win.
UFC 304 Pick: Loughran
Molly McCann (14-6-0) v. Bruna Brasil (9-4-1)
Molly McCann - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 14 wins
Bruna Brasil - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: I have not seen anything from Brasil that tells me she can win this fight. McCann will have the edge on the feet and likely dominates control time when she inevitably secures a takedown. She is a solid play for all contests.
UFC 304 Pick: McCann
Nathaniel Wood (19-6-0) v. Daniel Pineda (28-15-0)
Nathaniel Wood - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
Daniel Pineda - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 28 wins
DFS Perspective: Wood is better everywhere and should be in control for the majority of the fight. He should have no issue exploiting Pineda's weak takedown defense or racking up significant strikes on the feet. However, Pineda is dangerous, and if he wins, it will likely be by finish, as all 28 wins in his career have ended early.
UFC 304 Pick: Wood
Arnold Allen (19-3-0) v. Giga Chikadze (15-3-0)
Arnold Allen - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Giga Chikadze - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight will likely be much closer than some think. Both fighters are credentialed strikers who could end a fight at any time. Allen has shown no issue being at a size disadvantage and throws hands in the pocket. Chikadze prefers to be at range and use his kicks, so this fight could be a stalemate at times. However, I prefer Allen's approach and think he will spend more time striking Chikadze in the pocket. A high DFS score is not likely if there is no finish within the first couple of rounds.
UFC 304 Pick: Allen
Christian Leroy Duncan (10-1-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (15-5-0)
Christian Leroy Duncan - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
Gregory Rodrigues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Duncan is one of the best plays on the slate and is a terrible matchup for Rodrigues. Rodrigues stands tall in the pocket and enjoys trading shots with his opponent when he is not shooting for takedowns. Duncan should welcome an early brawl and knock out Rodrigues early with one of his blitzes. He should score well in all contests.
UFC 304 Pick: Duncan
Bobby Green (32-15-1) v. Paddy Pimblett (21-3-0)
Bobby Green - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 32 wins
Paddy Pimblett - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a highly-targeted fight for DFS as their salaries are in the middle, and the fight could go either way. Green has a considerable edge in experience and likely has the edge in striking. Pimblett will have the edge on the mat, and I expect him to look for takedowns early and often. He has not fought in a year and a half, but I do not expect it to play much of a part. This fight will feature tons of action, and a solid DFS score is likely.
UFC 304 Pick: Pimblett
Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) v. Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0)
Tom Aspinall - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
Curtis Blaydes - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: These two fought once before, and it ended due to an unfortunate knee injury to Aspinall a minute into the fight. Assuming no injuries, I expect this to play out with Aspinall winning by knockout. He has incredible power, and his forward pressure is potentially the best in the UFC. Blaydes will have his chances if he can avoid the knockout and get this to the mat. However, Aspinall has never been taken down in the UFC, and I do not see that changing in this one. Aspinall is one of the best plays on the entire slate.
UFC 304 Pick: Aspinall
Leon Edwards (22-3-0) v. Belal Muhammad (23-3-0)
Leon Edwards - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 22 wins
Belal Muhammad - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: This is also another rematch that ended early, though this one was due to an eye poke. Muhammad's best chance will be to get this fight to the mat and keep Edwards controlled for several rounds. Edwards is easily the better striker and should dominate the exchanges on the feet. However, he also has solid wrestling and should make things difficult for Muhammad throughout the five-round fight. This is a solid fight to stack for cash games.
UFC 304 Pick: Edwards
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
