This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Madison Square Garden on Saturday, November 16 for a solid UFC 309 card. The main event sees Jon Jones defending his heavyweight title against Stipe Miocic.
Below, I'll share my UFC 309 predictions, including a betting favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Lightweight
Damon Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC) vs Jim Miller (37-8, 1 NC)
Damon Jackson is moving up to lightweight, and this is a spot I like him to get his hand raised against veteran Jim Miller.
Jackson's durability has been a bit of an issue, but at lightweight, his chin should be much better. Miller, meanwhile, is coming off a loss to Bobby Green in which he took a ton of damage.
Miller is known for his grappling, but Jackson's grappling skills are on par with those of Miller.
Miller's cardio has been an issue, so I expect Jackson to push the pace on Miller and tire him out.
When it's all said and done, look for Jackson to edge out a clear-cut decision by landing the better shots on the feet.
UFC 309 Bet: Damon Jackson (-170)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Chris Weidman (16-7) vs Eryk Anders (16-8, 1 NC)
For my underdog pick at UFC 309, I'm taking Chris Weidman to beat Eryk Anders.
Weidman is no longer a top-15 middleweight, but he can still beat unranked opponents like Anders, who struggled with Jamie Pickett in his last fight. Anders got dropped in that outing, and at age 37, his chin simply isn't as good as it used to be.
Anders does have the power to KO Weidman, but I like Weidman to control the fight with his wrestling and fight smart on the feet to edge out a decision in New York. To me, Weidman should be a slight favorite, so to get +102 on Weidman is the way to go.
UFC 309 Bet: Chris Weidman (+102)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Bo Nickal (6-0) vs Paul Craig (17-8-1)
For my prop at UFC 309, I'm making Bo Nickal go from a -1100 favorite to -150.
Nickal is a great wrestler, but his power and striking have been impressive. He now takes on Paul Craig who is a grappler, but I expect Nickal to score a KO win at -150 odds.
Nickal will be the faster and much better striker on the feet and should be able to land a shot that puts Craig down, similar to what he did to Val Woodburn. If it isn't a clean KO, Craig is a good enough grappler to avoid getting submitted while he's hurt, and instead, Nickal will use ground-and-pound to get the big win.
UFC 309 Bet: Bo Nickal by KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
Weight Classes: Weltweight & women's flyweight
Oban Elliott (11-2) vs Bassil Hafez (9-4-1)
Karine Silva (18-4) vs Viviane Araujo (12-6)
For my parlay at UFC 309, I'm taking Oban Elliott and Karine Silva to get their hands raised on Saturday.
Elliott is taking on Hafez in the early prelims, and this is a spot where he will be able to defend the takedowns and out-strike Hafez. Hafez struggled against Mickey Gall last time out, while Elliott impressed me in his last fight against Preston Parsons. Elliott should also be able to have success taking Hafez down to control the fight to win a decision.
In the other leg, I'm backing Silva to defeat Araujo. Silva is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC and has been impressive, while Araujo is 6-5 overall and 1-3 in her last four -- undoubtedly struggling of late.
Silva is a legitimate grappler who should be able to take Araujo down and control her to win minutes while also landing ground-and-pound. On the feet, Silva is also the faster and more powerful striker, so she will land the more damaging shots to help her win a decision.
UFC 309 Bet: Oban Elliott & Karine Silva parlay (-108)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 309 card.
- Damon Jackson (-170)
- Chris Weidman (+102)
- Bo Nickal by KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
- Oban Elliott & Karine Silva parlay (-108)
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