Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
UFC 323 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC 323 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight Championship
(C) Merab Dvalishvili (21-4-0) v. Petr Yan (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: Dvalishvili ($9,500), Yan ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Dvalishvili (-425), Yan (+330)
This is a rematch of a March 2023 fight which Dvalishvili won via unanimous decision. It was a five-round main event and a clean sweep on the scorecards, so I can't imagine fans are clamoring for a rematch, but Merab has essentially cleaned out the top of the division and likes to remain active, so here we are.
This will be Dvalishvili's fourth title defense in 2025 alone. He's already taken unanimous decisions from both Umar Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen in addition to submitting Sean O'Malley. The Umar fight was the only competitive one, and even then it was only close for two rounds. Merab will be 35 years old in January, but has shown zero signs of slowing down. He may already be the best bantamweight of all time.
Yan has won three in a row, so at least the UFC isn't handing a title fight to a guy that has been inconsistent of late. All three victories have been via unanimous decision, over Marcus McGhee, Deiveson Figueiredo and Song Yadong. Yan has looked good during the stretch, showing off some grappling skills in addition to his typical high volume on the feet, but I haven't seen anything that would lead me to believe he's going to give Dvalishivili a real run here.
Merab's cardio and wrestling are amongst the greatest in the history of the sport. His entries aren't always perfect ,but he never gets tired, so he can simply outwork his opposition and end up dominating positions.
In his last three fights, Dvalishvili has racked up 32 takedowns. That is not misprint. He got 20 against Sandhagen alone.
In the first fight between the two, Merab shot a ridiculous 49 takedowns, landing 11. Those 11 successful tries turned into just 6:53 worth of control time, but the constant pressure kept Yan off balance on the feet, which essentially eliminated any chance he made have had of winning.
Backing a soon-to-be 35-year-old that relies on pressure, pace and nothing else for success is risky business, but Merab is a freak of nature.
Then, add in the the fact Yan's one-punch knockout power is limited due to the fact Dvalishvili has never been finished via strikes in his entire career, and you are looking at another easy Merab decision victory.
I understand the price tag is high, and there aren't a ton of underdogs I like on this card outright, so you'll have to make your stand somewhere, I just don't think this is the place to do so.
THE PICK: Dvalishvili
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Co-Main Event - Flyweight Championship
(C) Alexandre Pantoja (30-5-0) v. Joshua Van (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Pantoja ($9,000), Van ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Pantoja (-240), Van (+190)
In a division that has had a ton of movement at the top in recent years, Pantoja has brought some stability to 125 pounds. He's won eight fights in a row, including successfully defending his title on four different occasions. He fought twice in 2023, twice in 2024, and this will be his second fight of 2025, so he stays active. There doesn't appear to be too many threats on the immediate horizon if he can dispatch Van.
Van just turned 24 years of age in October. He was knocked out by Charles Johnson in his fourth UFC fight back in July 2024, but has won five in a row since. Van is about the most active fighter in the sport. He fought four times in 2024, and this will be his fourth fight of 2025. I've been of the opinion he actually competes too much and would be better off taking his time and picking his spots better, but it's worked for him so far -- he's parlayed this run into a title shot.
As good as Van has looked of late, I'm not sure wins over the likes of Brandon Royval, Bruno Silva and Rei Tsuruya means he's ready to challenge the clear cut top guy in the division.
Pantoja is a legitimate all-around mixed martial artist. He's capable of putting up big numbers on the feet (4.36 significant fights landed per minute), is a solid wrestler (2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes) and has a smothering submission game. He's also heavy from top position and ridiculously durable, having never been finished in 35 professional fights. The Brazilian will be 36 years old in April, so that durability could seemingly go at any time, but until it does, Pantoja deserves the benefit of the doubt.
All that said, Van is difficult to prepare for because there's really no fighter on the roster, especially at flyweight, that mimics a similar style. He's aggressive on the feet to the point of recklessness, constantly working his way into the pocket in an attempt to overwhelm his competition.
Van is averaging an insane 8.86 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing an equally crazy 6.36 per minute. On the surface, both numbers would appear to be highly unsustainable, but Van is now nine fights into his UFC run and six of those went the distance, so perhaps nothing will change.
The issue is that this seems like a poor matchup for him. Pantoja has never had problems with high-volume strikers in the past. Plus, we've seen Van grounded on multiple occasions in multiple fights.
Van's a reasonable DK play, because in a fight likely to see the final bell, you know he'll put in the work at a discounted price. I just don't think he wins. For what it's worth, if you are determined to take an underdog in one of the title fights, I'd pony up the extra $500 and roll Van over Yan all day long.
THE PICK: Pantoja
Flyweight
Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) v. Tatsuro Taira (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Moreno ($7,700), Taira ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Moreno (+100), Taira (-120)
Set to turn 32 years old the day after this event takes place, Moreno remains at the very top of the list of challengers at 125 pounds. He dropped back-to-back split decisions to Pantoja (in which he lost the title) and Brandon Royval in July 2023 and February 2024. He has since taken back-to-back five-round unanimous decisions over Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. Moreno has a real claim to be next in line for the Pantoja v. Van winner should he be able to get by Taira.
Taira saw his perfect professional record go by the wayside in a split decision loss to Royval in October 2024. He was then due to face Albazi this past August before the latter withdrew. Hyun Sung Park stepped in on extremely short notice and Taira dispatched him via second-round submission. Taira is still just 25 years old and has a ton of upside, but his most impressive UFC victory is over Alex Perez. The gap in competition level faced between him and Moreno overwhelming.
Moreno hasn't shown any signs of slowing down whatsoever. He's capable of putting up huge numbers on the feet in terms of volume when necessary. In his past four fights he's landed no fewer than 89 significant strikes. He's tough, durable, and a better grappler than he gets credit for. He's way better than I initially gave him credit for and if he regained the 125-pound title once again, I wouldn't be surprised.
I'm still on the fence regarding Taira, partially because I what I mentioned earlier. He's never defeated anyone of note. That's the first issue. The second is that he's entirely reliant on his grappling for success. He's a very good wrestler, averaging 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes. That's the good news. The bad news is that he's super-low volume on the feet (2.87 significant strikes landed per minute), although that's partially because he frequently spends a ton of time on the mat. In order for him to been Moreno in a three-round fight, there needs to be takedowns and plenty of positional control involved.
I was leaning towards Moreno anyway, but the strange salaries here reaffirmed my position.
This fight is trending towards a pick 'em on the Vegas money line, so there's no way Taira should be $800 more on DK. That's a win right there for the Moreno side.
I could ultimately see things go either way, but I'm willing to roll the dice on Moreno's past body of work one more time against a largely still unknown commodity.
THE PICK: Moreno
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Bantamweight
Henry Cejudo (16-5-0) v. Payton Talbott (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Cejudo ($7,000), Talbott ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Cejudo (+225), Talbott (-280)
Cejudo is still earmarked for a huge fight on the main card of a Pay-Per-View despite the fact he'll be 39 years old in February and enters on a three-right losing streak. That's concerning, obviously. Equally concerning is the fact Cejudo fought once in 2020, not at all in 2021 and 2022, once in 2023, once in 2024, and once thus far in 2025. It's really difficult, if not impossible, to compete with the best in the world if you're keeping that type of schedule. This has the feel of the UFC potentially throwing Henry to the wolves one final time against a prospect with legitimate long-term potential.
Talbott's upside remains massive, although it has been a struggle thus far. He's 4-1 in his first five fights with the UFC, with the four wins coming over low-level competition (Felipe Lima, Yanis Ghemmouri, Cameron Saaiman, Nick Aguirre) and the setback being a lopsided unanimous decision defeat to Raoni Barcelos. Cejudo, even at this late stage of his career, is the best opponent Talbott has faced by a country mile.
Henry's wrestling game was obviously the best of the best at one point, but that was a long time ago. He failed on all three of his takedown attempts against Song Yadong his last time out. He went 1-for-7 against Merab Dvalishvili the time before that. The days of him grinding his opposition to dust has come and gone. Cejudo's going to be giving up a ton of athleticism to Talbott, who is upwards of a decade his junior.
Talbott's big advantage is going to come on the feet. He has way more power than Henry and is a much more fluid striker. If he's able to remain upright, my guess is he takes a decision without issue.
Payton is also six inches taller and will enter with a six-inch reach edge. I expect the market to swing even more in Talbott's favor when these two face off on Friday and he appears to be legitimately twice Henry's size.
Unfortunately for Payton, remaining upright hasn't been his greatest strength thus far. Counting his appearance on Dana White's Contender Series, Talbott has given up at least one takedown in four of six fights. He gave up three to Lima and eight to Barcelos. You would hope Payton and his team recognize this is by far his greatest weakness and spent all training camp working on it.
The blueprint for defeating Talbott is out there and it plays into, what, at one point, was Cejudo's greatest strength. I just can't help but think Henry is totally finished in terms of hanging with quality opposition.
It doesn't feel great, and the bloated salary for Talbott makes it even worse, but he's the play.
THE PICK: Talbott
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) v. Bogdan Guskov (18-3-0)
DK Salaries: Blachowicz ($8,400), Guskov ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Blachowicz (-135), Guskov (+115)
Speaking of struggling of late, Blachowicz enters having lost back-to-back fights and without a victory dating back to May 2022 (0-2, 1NC). He'll be 43 years old in February and is already essentially done in terms of impacting the title picture, even in an ultra-thin 205-pound division. That said, Jan looked pretty good his last time out in February, hanging tough against an opponent in Carlos Ulberg that is probably next in line for a title shot.
Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir in just under four minutes in his UFC debut back in September 2023, but Volkan is on a nice little run of late. He's won four straight since, all via stoppage (three knockouts, one submission). The competition level faced hasn't been great, but Guskov did manage to get Nikita Krylov out of there in Round 1 his last time out in July.
Given his offensive skill set, it's not particuarly surprising that Jan has struggled in the latter part of his career. He's essentially a point kickboxer at this point, relying on hand speed and head movement for success. Blachowicz has never been the most nimble guy on the feet and is a below-average athlete. It's a bad combination for an aging fighter.
If there are two things Guskov brings to the table, it's real power and the willingness to mix it up in there. He's aggressive to the point of recklessness on the feet, although he's only been knocked out once in 21 fights, a shockingly low number considering the fire fights he often finds himself involved in. It's a very limited skill set, and a concerning one, but it may be just enough to get past Blachowicz at this stage of his career.
Jan has been knocked out just twice in 42 professional fights, so he's shown an ability to take a beating in the past without issue. I just don't know how long that can last given his advanced age and declining defensive abilities.
Nearly a decade younger than his opponent, this is a Guskov play for me given where each man is at in their respective careers.
THE PICK: Guskov
OTHER FIGHTS
Lightweight
Grant Dawson (23-2-1) v. Manuel Torres (16-3-0)
DK Salaries: Dawson ($8,900), Torres ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Dawson (-220), Torres (+180)
THE PICK: Dawson
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney (17-7-0) v. Chris Duncan (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: McKinney ($7,600), Duncan ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: McKinney (+140), Duncan (-165)
THE PICK: Duncan
Women's Flyweight
Maycee Barber (14-2-0) v. Karine Silva (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: Barber ($8,700), Silva ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Barber (-180), Silva (+150)
THE PICK: Barber
Lightweight
Nazim Sadykhov (11-1-1) v. Fares Ziam (17-4-0)
DK Salaries: Sadykhov ($7,900), Ziam ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Sadykhov (+115), Ziam (-135)
THE PICK: Ziam
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori (19-9-1) v. Brunno Ferreira (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Vettori ($8,200), Ferreira ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Vettori (-115), Ferreira (-105)
THE PICK: Ferreira
Lightweight
Edson Barboza (24-13-0) v. Jalin Turner (14-9-0)
DK Salaries: Barboza ($6,900), Turner ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Barboza (+240), Turner (-300)
THE PICK: Turner
Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski (6-0-0) v. Ibo Aslan (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Baraniewski ($8,800), Aslan ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Baraniewski (-190), Aslan (+160)
THE PICK: Baraniewski
Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik (8-0-1) v. Antonio Trocoli (12-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Abdul-Malik ($9,800), Trocoli ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Abdul-Malik (-1150), Trocoli (+650)
THE PICK: Abdul-Malik
Featherweight
Muhammadjon Naimov (13-3-0) v. Mairon Santos (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Naimov ($7,100), Santos ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Naimov (+210), Santos (-260)
THE PICK: Santos
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
