This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Seattle DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Seattle takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight
Henry Cejudo (16-4-0) v. Yadong Song (21-8-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Cejudo ($7,300), Song ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Cejudo (+230), Song (-285)
Now 38 years old, Cejudo will be fighting for the first time in just over a year. He's lost back-to-back bouts, although they came against current UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili and former title holder Aljamain Sterling. When you factor in his previous "retirement," Cejudo hasn't won a fight since May 2020. I imagine there's plenty of gas left in the tank if Henry wants to continue to compete, but asking him to go up against the best in the world in arguably the deepest division in the sport seems like a bit much.
Song has quietly won five of his last seven. That said, he's struggled against better competition, dropping fights to Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen in that stretch -- by far the two best opponents he faced. He's had some reasonable wins (Chris Gutierrez, Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes), too, but nothing that really moves the needle all that much. It sort of feels as if Song has to emerge victorious here if he wants to keep his spot in the back-half of the top 10.
Lost in the background of the two defeats was the fact Cejudo looked pretty good against both Merab and Sterling. He dropped a 29-28 x3 decision to Dvalishvili. He wore down as the fight progressed, which is what Merab does to pretty much everyone. For comparison's sake, Henry looked better than Umar Nurmagomedov did in his recent title fight against the champion.
The Sterling fight was a split decision, with both guys landing plenty of takedowns and control time.
Both Merab and Aljo are high-level grapplers. I'm very interested in seeing how Cejudo looks here against an opponent in Song who is known for his stand-up. It's essentially his first fight against a non-grappler in more than five years. Does he still have enough left to dominate Song with his wrestling?
It won't come easy. Henry is giving up four inches in height and three inches in reach. He's probably going to have to eat some big blows from Song in order to get inside consistently. Can he survive those shots?
This reminds me in many ways of the Calvin Kattar v. Youssef Zalal fight from last week.
You have a veteran in Cejudo who theoretically looks undervalued, but when push comes to shove, the younger fighter wins quite easily.
I fell into the trap last week in taking Kattar, and I'm going to fall for the bait once more here. Cejudo has no durability issues, so I'll cross my fingers at a massive discount and hope he can grind his way through five rounds and take a decision.
THE PICK: Cejudo
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Brendan Allen (24-6-0) v. Anthony Hernandez (13-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Allen ($7,200), Hernandez ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Allen (+225), Hernandez (-280)
Regular readers of this column know I have been an Allen backer for quite a while. He won seven straight from February 2022 to April 2024, but a road game against Nassourdine Imavov in September ended up being his undoing. He really struggled on the feet that evening and managed to land just 1-of-10 takedown attempts. Now, Imavov just knocked out former UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya, so there's no shame in going the distance with him, but it was a lousy performance from Allen in a matchup I thought played to his strengths.
Things figure to be equally difficult against Hernandez, who presents a whole different set of challenges entirely. "Fluffy" has won six in a row dating back to February 2021. He recently completed in his first UFC main event last October, stopping Michel Pereira in Round 5 via elbows. Hernandez was in control the entire way and would have won a lopsided decision had he not found the late stoppage. This is a guy that seems to be getting better and better each and every time out. I'm a fan.
Hernandez is essentially a middleweight version of Dvalishvili. He has better cardio than pretty much everyone he faces, which allows him to just spam takedown attempts over and over. It's not always visually pleasing, but it's almost always effective. He attempted a ridiculous 29 takedowns against Pereira, landing 10 of them. That resulted in 15:42 worth of control time, an insane number for a fight which lasted a shade over 22 minutes.
Allen's 58 percent career takedown defense is middling, but it's worth noting he's been much better over the past several years. The one past fight to highlight is his June 2022 fight against Jacob Malkoun. Malkoun is a one-dimensional wrestler with zero striking game to speak of. He doesn't have the stand-up skills or Hernandez, nor the cardio, and he still managed to land 7-of-14 takedown attempts on Allen.
Allen is very tricky off of his back and has a whopping 14 career wins via submission, so Hernandez isn't going to be able to hang out in top position and do whatever he wants.
He's going to have to make sure he doesn't leave a limb exposed, or Allen will take advantage.
This seems like a good matchup for Hernandez. Allen is a live underdog simply because he's crafty and experienced, but I don't see Brendan being able to remain upright for 15 minutes, nor do I see him being able to land with enough authority on the feet to really damage Anthony, who has been knocked out just once in his professional career. Give me Hernandez via grinding decision.
THE PICK: Hernandez
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Catch Weight (140 pounds)
Rob Font (21-8-0) v. Jean Matsumoto (16-0-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Font (+150), Matsumoto (-185)
Font was due to face former UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz here, but Cruz was injured during training and ultimately decided to retire. Matsumoto replaced him on very short notice, and the bout will be held at a catch weight of 140 pounds as a result.
Now 37 years old, Font appeared to be on the verge of being released following a stretch of four losses in five fights from December 2021 to December 2023. He faced Kyler Phillips in his most recent bout last October and came through as a big underdog, taking a unanimous decision and saving his job in the process. I'm not very optimistic about Font moving forward given his age and one-dimensional brawling style of fighting, but he's proven capable of quality performances in the past.
It's crazy to say, but Matsumoto figures to be a more difficult task for Font than Cruz may have been. For comparison's sake, Font was scheduled to be roughly a -190 favorite over Dom.
The Brazilian earned his UFC opportunity with a unanimous decision win on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2023. He has appeared twice for the promotion since, submitting Dan Argueta and taking a unanimous decision over Brad Katona. Matsumoto is undefeated in 16 fights as a professional.
Font will enter with a two-inch edge in height and a three-inch edge in reach, both imperative numbers if he is to have success. Rob is capable of putting up a ton of volume on the feet. That said, so is Matsumoto. He tallied 89 significant strikes in his win over Katona and a whopping 100 total strikes in his DWCS victory.
The elephant in the room is Font's horrendous takedown defense. He's given up 15 total takedowns in his past three fights, allowing at least four in each bout. For his career, he's at 44 percent. He has no get-up game once he's planted on his back, and even one well-timed Matsumoto shot could be the difference. I don't think he's a standout wrestler or anything like that, but you don't have to be to get Font to the mat.
I expect a ton of volume on the feet both ways, which makes Font a live underdog. Yet, the catch weight should favor Matsumoto on short notice and ultimately, it's really difficult to pick the veteran given his age and the massive hole in his grappling game.
THE PICK: Matsumoto
Featherweight
Jean Silva (14-2-0) v. Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($9,500), Baghdasaryan ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-575), Baghdasaryan (+425)
The Fighting Nerds team from Brazil has quickly established themselves as one of the best in the sport, and Silva has been helping lead the charge. He's 3-0 since officially joining the company, with all three wins coming via knockout. Included in there are a pair of victories over solid competition in Charles Jourdain and Drew Dober.
One thing worth monitoring is that the Dober fight took place at lightweight, likely the result of Silva missing weight for the featherweight bout against Jourdain. He's dropping back down to 145 pounds here, so keep an eye on how Silva looks on the scale on Friday.
It's impossible to know what to expect from Baghdasaryan moving forward. This is a guy that has fought just four times since his July 2021 debut, and not at all since July 2023. He had three different fights scheduled in 2024, but all fell through, the last of which was the result of Baghdasaryan tearing his labrum in his shoulder. It's a serious injury.
Silva has shown ridiculous power for a smaller fighter. He's perfectly comfortable standing in the pocket and swinging bombs. It's a risky strategy long-term, but it hasn't hurt him yet. Silva hasn't been finished in 16 professional bouts, and while this is a skill set that typically doesn't age well, the Brazilian should be just fine for the foreseeable future.
Baghdasaryan is a former professional kickboxer, so he's clearly going to be willing to engage Silva in the brawl he is seeking. I was always pretty impressed with Melsik's stand-up defense relative to his aggressive offense skill set, but it's perfectly fair to wonder if the time off and/or the shoulder injury will result in him struggling here.
On the surface, the price on Silva seems high, but in the end, he's probably worth it. He just rolled through two guys who would be considered tougher opponents than Baghdasaryan, and that's not to say anything of the latter closing in on two years without fighting. And the injury.
Don't overthink this one.
THE PICK: Silva
Other Bouts
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield (15-5-1) v. Julius Walker (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Menifield (8,700), Walker ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Menifield (-220), Walker (+160)
THE PICK: Menifield
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba (18-10-0, 1NC) v. Ibo Aslan (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Cutelaba ($7,700), Aslan ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Cutelaba (+145), Aslan (-175)
THE PICK: Cutelaba
Featherweight
Andre Fili (24-11-0, 1NC) v. Melquizael Costa (21-7-0)
DK Salaries: Fili ($8,200), Costa ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Fili (+100), Costa (-120)
THE PICK: Costa
Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik (7-0-0) v. Nick Klein (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Malik ($9,700), Klein ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Malik (-950), Klein (+575)
THE PICK: Malik
Bantamweight
Ricky Simon (20-6-0) v. Javid Basharat (14-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Simon ($7,100), Basharat ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Simon (+240), Basharat (-300)
THE PICK: Basharat
Middleweight
Nursulton Ruziboev (34-9-2, 2NC) v. Eric McConico (9-2-1)
DK Salaries: Ruziboev ($9,000), McConico ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Ruziboev (-270), McConico (+220)
THE PICK: Ruziboev
Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas (16-6-0) v. Rafael Cerqueira (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Bukauskas ($9,300), Cerqueira ($6,900)
THE PICK: Bukauskas
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Seattle with more MMA betting content.
In search of a new, legal sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as these selections for the best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
