This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Saudi Arabia DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Saudi Arabia takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Israel Adesanya (24-4-0) v. Nassourdine Imavov (15-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Adesanya ($8,600), Imavov ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Adesanya (-165), Imavov (+140)
Each of Adesanya's last dozen fights have been for UFC gold. This bout will break that streak. The last time he competed without a title on the line was against Anderson Silva back in February 2019.
Now 35 years old, Izzy is 1-3 in his past four fights overall. Now, there's no shame in losing to Dricus Du Plessis, Sean Strickland and Alex Pereira, but Adesanya is pretty clearly on the back-nine of his career. He remains immensely popular, and that's not to say he won't continue to win his fair share of fights, but expectations are best kept in check moving forward.
Imavov might not be recognized as being on the same level as those previously mentioned names, but with three straight wins over Brendan Allen, Jared Cannonier and Roman Dolidze, he's earned this opportunity. Imavov will be 30 in March, and as crazy as it sounds, if he's a legitimate contender at 185 pounds, he should probably beat Izzy here, or at a very minimum give him a highly-competitive battle.
Adesanya's last two fights were both polar opposites of each other. In the Strickland bout in which he originally lost his title, he could get nothing going the entire night. He looked off balance and uncomfortable from the very start and struggled with both the jab and constant pressure of Sean. In the du Plessis fight, he looked considerably better on the feet, but his grappling betrayed him. Izzy allowed four takedowns before being submitted late in Round 4.
As talented and creative a striker as Adesanya is, he's always been a volume-over-power guy. If his cardio, output and footwork begin to fall off in even the slightest, which would be shocking given his advanced age, there's cause for major concern.
Imavov, a solid striker himself, is typically taller and longer than his opposition. He's a big middleweight, but he's giving up an inch in height and five inches in reach to Adesanya. He's going to have to find a way to create damage from the inside, which isn't his typical preferred method of attack.
From a grappling standpoint, Imavov isn't much of a wrestler, averaging 0.88 takedowns per 15 minutes. That said, he has displayed the ability to ground opponents known for their striking. He took down the likes of Cannonier, Chris Curtis and Joaquin Buckley -- three guys with very little grappling game to speak of.
I expect this to be a close and competitive fight. A well-timed shot or two from Imavov could be the difference over the course of five rounds.
This looks like a clear spot to fade the former champion. Imavov has a grappling edge -- for whatever that's worth -- and he hits harder. Plus, we don't know how Adesanya will look in his first non-title fight in about six years. Will he be as motivated? As effective?
This projects as a pick 'em fight for me, and that makes Imavov a big-time value play. It's also a leverage opportunity due to Adesanya's popularity. Imavov certainly wouldn't be the first guy to struggle with the length of Adesanya, but he's a talented opponent. I'll wager that over the course of five rounds, he can figure it out and make things difficult on Izzy. Whether that's enough to win remains to be seen.
THE PICK: Imavov
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Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Shara Magomedov (15-0-0) v. Michael Page (22-3-0)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($8,800), Page ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-190), Page (+160)
A long-time Bellator standout, Page made his UFC debut last March and took a unanimous decision from Kevin Holland. He returned in late-June and dropped a unanimous decision to Ian Garry, although he once again looked better in that fight than I expected. MVP is will be 38 years of age in April. He's a one-dimensional striker, but like Adesanya, he's so creative and technical on the feet that he can have prolonged success despite primarily employing just one discipline. I don't think he's a legitimate title contender at 185 pounds, but I do think he can continue to be thrust into meaningful spots such as this one.
Magomedov made his UFC debut in October 2023, and in a span of a year and five days, won four fights. The wins are knockouts of Armen Petrosyan and Antonio Trocoli, in addition to a pair of unanimous decisions over Michal Oleksiejczuk and Bruno Silva. Page, even at his advanced age, figures to be by far Shara's toughest test to date.
I still have my concerns, but it's quite clear I was too low on Magomedov from the very start. The guy has legitimate power and high-end stand-up skills. He's displayed pinpoint accuracy and a ridiculous chin. I think the lack of grappling skills is going to haunt him down the road, and I'm worried by the fact Magomedov gets sucked into a brawl most every time out, but his upside is quite a bit higher than I originally anticipated, and I don't see Page being the guy to take advantage of his shortcomings.
We should be able to tell quite quickly how this fight is going to go. If it's a technical kickboxing match fought at distance, that favors MVP. If Magomedov is able to crash the pocket and make things a bit ugly and chaotic, he is going to have the edge.
I can't help but think the UFC knows what they have in Shara and thus went out of their way to give him a winnable fight against a "name" opponent.
I've bet against Magomedov each fight to date, and he's crushed me.
He's going to be the pick the time around, but I don't love the spot. Page is a seasoned veteran who has seen it all in this sport. My guess is that MVP does a better job than most think of making Shara uncomfortable and lands his fair share of offense as a result, although the favorite ends up taking a tight decision.
THE PICK: Magomedov
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Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0) v. Jair Rozenstruik (15-5-0)
DK Salaries: Pavlovich ($9,100), Rozenstruik ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Pavlovich (-305), Rozenstruik (+245)
Pavlovich won six in a row, all via first-round knockout, from April 2019 to April 2023 and parlayed that into an interim UFC Heavyweight Championship fight against Tom Aspinall in November 2023. He was knocked out in 69 seconds that evening and then went on to drop a fairly lopsided unanimous decision to Alexander Volkov last June, Now, Aspinall and Volkov are two of the very best fighters the heavyweight division has to offer, but Pavlovich now finds himself miles from true title contention, and a loss here would eliminate him from the picture entirely.
Set to turn 37 years of age in March, Rozenstruik continues to do his thing, handling lesser fighters and typically struggling against better competition. Jair is sporting a .500 record (5-5) in his last 10 bouts dating back to May 2020, and that is roughly what should be expected of him moving forward.
Rozenstruik, a former professional kickboxer, has 13 career wins via knockout, including a bunch in Round 1, but I still don't think of him as a big power puncher. He is capable of piling up plenty of volume under the right circumstances, but Pavlovich isn't the guy you want to try to match blow-for-blow.
On the flip side, Sergei has ridiculous power and little else. He tends to blitz his opposition moments after the opening bell rings, and if he is able to get them out of there in short order, he's successful. If the fight drags on for even a few minutes, he's usually in trouble.
I certainly assume Jair and his team know what is coming their way. Rozenstruik's two career knockout defeats are against Volkov and Francis Ngannou. His durability is pretty strong for a heavyweight, and it will have to be if he plans on emerging victorious here. I expect some very hairy moments for Jair early on.
I'd feel much better about Rozenstruik's ability to pull the upset if he had any grappling whatsoever, but he doesn't. He hasn't landed a single takedown in his UFC run, and given how massive Pavlovich is, I don't expect him to do so here.
As a Jair backer, you're essentially hoping Pavlovich isn't able to land anything of real consequence early and gasses him out in the process. Is it possible? Sure. But I'd bet against it heavily, even if the $9,100 for the favorite feels too high.
THE PICK: Pavlovich
Women's Flyweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius (12-3-0) v. Mayra Bueno Silva (10-4-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Jasudavicius ($8,700), Bueno Silva ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Jasudavicius (-225), Bueno Silva (+185)
The 125-pound female division is the thinnest in the UFC, and thus there is room for immediate advancement.
The winner of three straight and five of six, Jasudavicius seems primed to take advantage of the opportunity. Jasmine has proven to be a solid grappler. She has the ability to pin her opposition to the mat for long stretches at a time, and she remains active from top position in order to ensure the assigned referee won't stand her up. The two main concerns regarding the Canadian are that she'll be 36 years of age on March 1 and has just two knockouts win in her pro career (none since early-2020).
Bueno Silva won four straight from April 2022 to July 2023, although the final win during that stretch, a second-round main event submission of Holly Holm, was changed to a no-contest after Bueno Silva failed a post-fight drug test which she claims was the result of the ADHD medication she was taking. The Brazilian still found herself in a 135-pound title fight her next time out, dropping a unanimous decision to Raquel Pennington. She followed that up with a lopsided TKO loss to Macy Chiasson last June.
I've never been all that impressed with Bueno Silva. Like Jasmine, she has virtually no power, with just one knockout win in her career. She's proven capable of racking up the submissions, but a good chunk of her UFC performances have been of the "fluky" variety. The one win that aged very well was a 2018 armbar of Gillian Robertson.
Jasudavicius lacks technical boxer skill, but she's far more composed on the feel that Bueno Silva, who tends to swing for the bleachers with every shot with zero regard for what is coming back her way.
I'm not convinced Jasmine has the stand-up abilities to consistently take advantage of the holes in Bueno Silva's striking game, but she should be able to duck underneath and grab a leg and get Mayra to the mat.
Jasudavicius will have to make sure she doesn't leave a limb exposed, but she doesn't have a single submission defeat in her pro career, and I'm not convinced Bueno Silva will be able to generate much from the bottom considering how dominant we have seen Jasmine from top position in the past.
It might be a good spot to avoid all together from a DraftKings perspective, but I think the Canadian wins quite easily via decision.
THE PICK: Jasudavicius
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Said Nurmagomedov (18-3-0) v. Vinicius Oliveira (21-3-0)
DK Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($8,700), Oliveira ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-180), Oliveira (+150)
THE PICK: Nurmagomedov
Featherweight
Muhammadjon Naimov (11-3-0) v. Kaan Ofli (12-3-1)
DK Salaries: Naimov ($9,000), Ofli ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Naimov (-260), Ofli (+210)
THE PICK: Naimov
Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev (13-1-0) v. Thomas Petersen (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Gaziev ($9,300), Petersen ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Gaziev (-380), Petersen (+300)
THE PICK: Petersen
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney (15-7-0) v. Damir Hadzovic (14-7-0)
DK Salaries: McKinney ($9,200), Hadzovic ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: McKinney (-455), Hadzovic (+330)
THE PICK: McKinney
Lightweight
Fares Ziam (16-4-0) v. Mike Davis (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Ziam ($7,800), Davis ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Ziam (+115), Davis (-135)
THE PICK: Davis
Featherweight
Bogdan Grad (14-2-0) v. Lucas Alexander (8-4-0)
DK Salaries: Grad ($8,300), Alexander ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Grad (-120), Alexander (+100)
THE PICK: Grad
Heavyweight
Hamdy Abdelwahab (5-0-0, 1NC) v. Jamal Pogues (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Abdelwahab ($8,000), Pogues ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Abdelwahab (-110), Pogues (-110)
THE PIC: Pogues
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Saudi Arabia with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
