DraftKings MMA: UFC Sao Paulo Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Sao Paulo Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The UFC returns to Brazil on Saturday, where a middleweight legend will look to get back on the winning track. Can the Brazilian crowd power 39-year-old Lyoto Machida to a final victory?

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

(Please note that DraftKings has altered their scoring system. The new point values are listed below and the rosters will now expand from 5 to 6 fighters).

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +3 PT
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event - Middleweight

Lyoto Machida (22-7-0) v. Derek Brunson (17-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Machida ($7,800), Brunson ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Machida (+150), Brunson (-170)
Odds to Finish: -420

A loser of three of his past four fights, this is last call for the 39-year-old Machida. All of Machida's setbacks have come against some of the best fighters in the world (Luke Rockhold, Yoel Romero, Chris Weidman), but he isn't in a position to be able to afford a fourth straight defeat. Machida has never been known as a power puncher and has earned just one knockout victory in the past four years. "The Dragon" is going to be giving up a ton of natural athletic ability to Brunson and it's extremely important that he control the pace of this fight. He should have a chance if the pace is slow and the fight goes an extended period of time, but he is going to have to survive an early onslaught from Brunson.

Brunson rebounded from back-to-back losses against current Interim UFC Middleweight Champion Robert Whittaker and the all-time great Anderson Silva to smash Daniel Kelly in 76 seconds in June. Brunson has crazy speed and power and the only thing that has been able to slow him down is himself. Brunson punched himself out early on in the Whittaker fight and he eventually paid for it. As long as he concocts and implements a smart, balanced game plan and doesn't go for broke too early, he is one of the best 185 pounders in the world. Brunson, at age 33, isn't getting any younger, but he doesn't appear to have lost a single step to this point.

Machida's biggest advantage in this fight is the fact that he will have the crowd behind him in his native Brazil. That's certainly an added bonus, but that won't help him in handling the explosiveness of Brunson. The only way I think Machida wins is if Brunson beats himself. Lyoto isn't known for one-punch knockout power and I don't think he will be able to complete athletically with Brunson for 15 minutes. If Brunson executes another bonehead game plan then all bets are off, but I think he's a clear favorite. Machida strikes me as a poor DraftKings play because many things will have to go right in order for him to rack up a bunch of fantasy points.

THE PICK: Brunson

Co-Main Event - Welterweight

Demian Maia (27-7-0) v. Colby Covington (12-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Maia ($8,000), Covington ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Maia (+115), Covington (-135)
Odds to Finish: +145

This is the most intriguing fight on the card for me due to the contrast in strengths between Maia and Covington. Maia, riding a seven-fighting winning streak, finally got his shot at UFC gold against Tyron Woodley in July. The result was a lopsided unanimous decision loss in one of the most boring fights in recent memory. Maia went, wait for it...... 0-FOR-21!!!! on takedown attempts against Woodley, and he landed just 29 total strikes in the entire 25 minute fight. It was a dreadful effort and one that lowered Maia's stock considerably. Things aren't going to get much easier against the talented, surging Covington.

Chaos is riding a four-fight winning streak, each of which he took with ease. One of the best wrestlers in the entire company, Covington was a former All-American and two-time Pac-10 champion at Oregon State, and he has averaged seven takedowns per fight in his UFC career. His striking numbers tend to be low because is usually controlling his opponents on the mat. The 29-year-old is clearly trending in the right direction. If he can improve his striking just a bit, his wrestling skills alone will make him an easy top-10 welterweight.

If Covington is able to drag Maia to the mat he will be in immediate danger because of Maia's submission skills, but Covington has the power to outmuscle his opponent and win the positional battles between the two. Maia needs to rely on his experience to win here. He is giving away a ton in terms of explosiveness and athleticism. Maia's career renasicance has been something to behold, but I generally bet on the younger, more athletic fighter and in this case that would be Covington.

THE PICK: Covington

Lightweight

Francisco Trinaldo (21-5-0) v. Jim Miller (28-10-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Trinaldo ($8,600), Miller ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Trinaldo (-170), Miller (+150)
Odds to Finish: +135

In many ways, Trinaldo and Miller are the same fighter. They are both aging veterans that possess very little in the way of athleticism. Instead, they get by on grit and experience. The loser is going to be in a world of hurt in the UFC's 155-pound division.

Trinaldo ran off an impressive seven-fight winning streak before getting submitted by Kevin Lee in March. The matchup with Lee was a worst-case scenario for the Brazilian -- an athletic, highly mobile opponent with a strong ground game. Trinaldo, like Miller, is next-level tough, but he is essentially a kickboxer at this point in his career. Trinaldo's last submission victory came more than four and a half years ago. I'm not all that optimistic about the 39-year-old moving forward, but I expect him to look better against Miller than he did against Lee.

Miller's greatest weakness has always been the lack of power in his hands. He had just four knockouts in 39 career fights, a career that began nearly 12 years ago. Miller is an accomplished ground specialist and he has retained nearly all of those skills, but he simply doesn't possess the footwork to get into position to use them on regular basis. Miller has lost back-to-back fights following a brief 3-fight winning streak.

This fight, like many in this sport will be determined by where it takes place. Any extended striking exchanges will favor Trinaldo while all grappling exchanges will be in favor of Miller. With both men currently struggling, this strikes me as a fight to stay away from a DraftKings perspective. I don't think either man will overwhelm the other, and with both men having proven to be extremely durable over the course of their respective careers, the odds are considerably better than 50-50 that this one sees the final bell. Give me Trinaldo for the victory in his home country in what is essentially a pick 'em for me.

THE PICK: Trinaldo

Bantamweight

John Lineker (29-8-0) v. Marlon Vera (10-3-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Lineker ($9,400), Vera ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Lineker (-450), Vera (+360)
Odds to Finish: -185

Coming off a unanimous decision loss to T.J. Dillashaw last December in which he was dominated, this fight is a step backwards for Lineker. The reason for that is simply because Vera, while talented, is a virtual unknown amongst casual MMA fans. He is also a solid fighter and that makes this a dangerous bout for Lineker in a fight in which he has virtually nothing to gain and everything to lose.

Lineker's success rests entirely on the power in his hands. He is frighteningly strong for his size and he excels at putting powerful combinations together. He struggled to hit Dilllashaw with any regularity, but he has pounded most everyone else he has faced. After struggling to make the 125 pound flyweight limit for much of his career, he looks strong and healthy at bantamweight. Lineker also has an underrated ground game despite the fact he rarely uses it.

The 24-year-old Vera gets a chance to pull the upset on the heels of a three-fight winning streak. He is an extremely talented mat specialist that has a knack for finishing fights early. Of course, the stoppage wins didn't come against anyone of Lineker's caliber. Vera is in a good spot heading into this fight. He gets a chance to pull the upset against one of the better fighters in the division and he is young enough (24) that even a lopsided loss shouldn't impact his long-term future.

Vera is a competent bantamweight but handling the power of Lineker is a big ask and one I don't think he can handle. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised of Vera is able to last for an extended period of time, but I would be somewhere between highly surprised and shocked if he actually won.

THE PICK: Lineker

Other Bouts

Bantamweight

Pedro Munhoz (14-2-0, 1NC) v. Rob Font (14-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Munhoz ($7,500), Font ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Munhoz (+160), Font (-190)
Odds to Finish: -130
THE PICK: Font

Middleweight

Thiago Santos (15-5-0) v. Jack Hermansson (16-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Santos ($7,900), Hermansson ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Santos (+125), Hermansson (-145)
Odds to Finish: -350
THE PICK: Hermansson

Welterweight

Vicente Luque (11-6-1) v. Niko Price (10-0-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries:Luque ($8,500), Price ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Luque (-150), Price (+130)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Price

Middleweight

Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2-0, 1NC) v. Jack Marshman (22-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Carlos Junior ($9,200), Marshman ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Carlos Junior (-360), Marshman (+300)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Carlos Junior

Lightweight

Hacran Dias (23-5-1) v. Jared Gordon (13-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Dias ($7,800), Gordon ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Dias (+135), Gordon (-155)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Dias

Welterweight

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (17-5-0) v. Max Griffin (13-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Zaleski dos Santos ($9,000), Griffin ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Zaleski dos Santos (-185), Griffin (+160)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Zaleski dos Santos

Flyweight

Deiveson Figueiredo (12-0-0) v. Jarred Brooks (13-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Figueiredo ($7,300), Brooks ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Figueiredo (+165), Brooks (-190)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Brooks

Heavyweight

Marcelo Golm (5-0-0) v. Christian Colombo (8-2-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Golm ($8,800), Colombo ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Golm (-160), Colombo (+140)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Golm

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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