Ice and Fire: Opening Observations

Ice and Fire: Opening Observations

This article is part of our Ice and Fire series.

Yes, it's another gimmick to increase scoring, but 3-on-3 overtime is a treat. Remember, the shootout's inception in 2005 was a gimmick to avoid ties, but having the game potentially settled on the ice is much more amenable than a skills competition. Saturday's Leafs-Sens game ended in a shootout with Ottawa winning, but the way the game flowed prior generated at least two odd-man rushes and an outright breakaway chance for Brad Boyes that was denied by Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson. Of the four NHL games that needed an extra frame to determine a winner this season, only the Ottawa-Toronto game made it to a shootout. This is microscopic sample size but 75 percent means more games are less likely to need the shootout. As has been noted by RotoWire colleague Janet Eagleson, more games ending in overtime very well could lead to more points for higher-end players. Yes, it is impossible to predict which team will have more games go to overtime, but the odds of skilled skaters on your roster factoring into the decision are high. The goals scored in the three overtime games thus far belong to Johnny Gaudreau, Patrick Kane and Jason Garrison.

Through Sunday evening, the league leaders in goals and assists are the highly likely candidates of Detroit's Justin Abdelkader and Colorado journeyman blueliner Francois Beauchemin. Neither of these players will factor into the Art Ross or Maurice Richard race at the end of the season, but value

Yes, it's another gimmick to increase scoring, but 3-on-3 overtime is a treat. Remember, the shootout's inception in 2005 was a gimmick to avoid ties, but having the game potentially settled on the ice is much more amenable than a skills competition. Saturday's Leafs-Sens game ended in a shootout with Ottawa winning, but the way the game flowed prior generated at least two odd-man rushes and an outright breakaway chance for Brad Boyes that was denied by Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson. Of the four NHL games that needed an extra frame to determine a winner this season, only the Ottawa-Toronto game made it to a shootout. This is microscopic sample size but 75 percent means more games are less likely to need the shootout. As has been noted by RotoWire colleague Janet Eagleson, more games ending in overtime very well could lead to more points for higher-end players. Yes, it is impossible to predict which team will have more games go to overtime, but the odds of skilled skaters on your roster factoring into the decision are high. The goals scored in the three overtime games thus far belong to Johnny Gaudreau, Patrick Kane and Jason Garrison.

Through Sunday evening, the league leaders in goals and assists are the highly likely candidates of Detroit's Justin Abdelkader and Colorado journeyman blueliner Francois Beauchemin. Neither of these players will factor into the Art Ross or Maurice Richard race at the end of the season, but value can be found in the late rounds or on waiver wires. Neither player was likely drafted in standard leagues, but now the determination must be made if either can be of an impact for your team.

Beauchemin is paired with Erik Johnson, meaning he'll see more minutes, but the odds of Beauchemin maintaining this pace are slim. It helps that Colorado has scored 10 goals in its first two games, but it is worth noting Beauchemin grabbed three helpers in the Avs' win over Minnesota with none coming on the man advantage. He saw no power-play time in that win but then 2:58 in Saturday's win over Dallas, with one of his two assists coming on the power play. The Avalanche have Tyson Barrie, who should be the team's primary point provider from the blue line, and Johnson is capable of putting up a decent amount of points, even Nick Holden will chip in offensively occasionally. Beauchemin is in a good spot: top-pairing minutes on a potentially high-scoring team, but he hasn't cracked 30 points since 2005-06 and managed 23 points last season with Anaheim, albeit 11 of those were goals. He likely was brought in to help stabilize Colorado in its own zone while the rest of the defensemen help spark the attack. The track record simply isn't there for Beauchemin, and 35-year old defenders don't suddenly start challenging the likes of Erik Karlsson for blue-line scoring supremacy. While the Avs and their talented young forwards likely will continue to score a decent pace, the odds of Beauchemin contributing to half their goals is unlikely.

As for Abdelkader in Detroit, he's been a valuable member of the Wings for five-plus seasons now and broke out with 23 goals one year earlier after totaling 38 the previous four seasons. Along with veteran Henrik Zetterberg and highly-touted youngster Dylan Larkin, the trio are off to a tremendous start. However, those two wins were against the likes of Toronto and Carolina. Neither are tremendous defensive squads, but this trio should have legs. Abdelkader has tremendous speed and can certainly dish out hits. He finished last year strong and should be able to put the puck in the goal. Having a steady presence like Zetterberg at your side certainly helps. Abdelakder's shots on goal last season (154) were in line with his last two seasons, but his 14.9 shooting percentage was a huge jump. Last year also appeared to be the first time Detroit utilized his skills on the power play, as he averaged less than a minute per-game during the 2013 and 2014 seasons, yet saw that number exponentially leap to an average of 3:05 per tilt, resulting in eight goals and 14 man-advantage points, almost a third of his total 44 points.

After four goals through two games, Abdelkader is shooting at an 80-percent clip. These numbers definitely will regress to the mean, but Zetterberg has a goal and four assists, and Larkin is sitting pretty with a goal and two helpers through both games. The trio are also a combined plus-15. The three are the top line in the Motor City and should continue seeing scoring chances, but expect some plateauing to occur, possibly a slump as well. As talented as Larkin is, a point-per-game pace is unlikely for any rookie. Both Abdelkader and Larkin are going to be productive players, get your hands on the former more than the latter in single-season leagues. If your league counts hits, Abdelkader will provide a nice added bonus.

Aside from Sunday's loss to Montreal, the Ottawa trio of Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone and Kyle Turris look to be a serious threat to goaltenders. Turris already has three goals while his linemates sit with three helpers each.

Pekka Rinne is a mere 1:40 seconds from opening the season with two shutouts thanks to Eric Staal and Carolina. Edmonton wasn't as lucky Saturday. Nashville looks good, and Rinne will likely be a Vezina candidate come season's end but a few more points from the likes of Filip Forsberg, Shea Weber and Roman Josi would be welcomed. Craig Smith has a goal in each of Nashville's first two games and could be a sneaky source of shots and goals once again. These positive stats may also hide the fact that the Preds are wearing helmets the same mustard color of their home jerseys.

Connor McDavid has no points through two games. Bust.

San Jose netminder Martin Jones, formerly Jonathan Quick's backup in Los Angeles, is off to a tremendous start with two wins and a mere goal allowed through two games, punctuated by a 27-save shutout over Anaheim on Saturday. For a young man with only 34 NHL games to his name, he looks rather poised on a team most think could be in a for a mediocre season. True, the Sharks' window to win a Stanley Cup has closed slower than the stone door in "Raiders of The Lost Ark," but they may have found something in Jones. The Sharks still are a solid team and have an elite power-play.

Florida scored seven goals on the Flyers on Saturday. Seven. Four within the game's first 6:46. Vincent Trocheck notched a goal and two assists while Jaromir Jagr bagged two goals as well. Brandon Pirri grabbed two assists in the win, putting him on pace for 164 for the season. Another way to put it is that Pirri equaled last season's assist total, needing 48 fewer games. Pirri should be a candidate for the Cy Young again this season, as he grabbed 22 goals to go with those two assists last year and an outstanding 15.4 shooting percentage.

The Penguins are 0-2 with just one goal in that span. Yes, it was from Phil Kessel, but don't panic on Pittsburgh just yet. The top-end talent on this team is staggering, but, as usual, expectations need to be tempered with the Penguins as they always seem a bit too high.

Lastly, the season is less than a week old. Don't forget your towel.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Pennucci
Dan is a former sportswriter and English teacher. He has been covering hockey for Rotowire since 2002. Supports the New Jersey Devils, Washington Nationals and Chelsea FC.
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