This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Hockey series.
Welcome back! The 2023-24 NHL season kicks off Tuesday with a tripleheader. Sure, that means the puck drops at 5:30 p.m. ET, but you can get your DFS lineups in on time, I bet. Obviously we are all working in the dark a bit here. Rosters have changed. Coaching staffs have changed. Even players that are franchise standbys might see a different role this year. With the information I have though, I have landed on players to target and to avoid for your lineups, and I feel as good about it as is feasible.
GOALIE
Tristan Jarry, PIT vs. CHI ($29): Jarry is coming off a tough season in which he posted a .909 save percentage, but there is a reason why the Penguins signed him to a new five-year deal this summer. He has a career .914 save percentage, so I think Jarry should improve some this year. While Connor Bedard is inspiring enthusiasm in Chicago, this is still a team that finished last in goals and shots on net per game last year. That's not something you turn around in the blink of an eye.
GOALIE TO AVOID
Juuse Saros, NAS at TAM ($32): Chicago, a team that won three Stanley Cups in a six-year period not so long ago, is an example of how NHL teams can't stay on top forever. Tampa Bay has become a popular choice to take a significant step back this season, but don't give up on the Bolts too quickly. This is a team that finished eighth in goals per game last year, and still fields a lineup with Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Brayden Point. Saros suddenly has a younger, less experienced team in front of him, and I don't think this road trip will be easy for the Finnish netminder.
CENTER
Chandler Stephenson, VGK vs. SEA ($17): Over the last two seasons, Stephenson has emerged as a 60-point center with double-digit points coming on the power play. I see no reason why that would change, especially with the reigning champs healthier than we have grown accustomed to. Philipp Grubauer has yet to post a save percentage over .900 since joining the Kraken, and with the unproven Joey Daccord now his backup, there is no proven commodity there to bolster him if he falters.
CENTER TO AVOID
Connor Bedard, CHI at PIT ($21): Brakes, get to pumping. I'm excited to see what Bedard does as a rookie, but he's an 18-year-old about to play his first NHL game. Not everybody debuts with four goals like Auston Matthews did. I don't want to risk this salary on Bedard when he's on the road facing a Penguins team that was middle of the pack in GAA last season.
WING
Filip Forsberg, NAS at TAM ($23): Back to full health, Forsberg is one of the last names standing from the heyday of the Predators. Sure, he missed a lot of last season, but in 50 games he posted 19 goals and 23 assists. As you may know, Andrei Vasilevskiy is starting the season injured, and Jonas Johansson is serving as the starter for the time being. The 28-year-old journeyman has a career .886 save percentage.
Bryan Rust, PIT vs. CHI ($17): Rust had 20 goals for the fourth season in a row last year, but he did that on 9.5 percent shooting, well below his career 12.3 percent number. His 211 shots on net were actually a personally best for him. Petr Mrazek had an .894 save percentage last season, and Chicago allowed 33.6 shots on net per contest. If Rust is shooting like last year but with better puck luck, this is a way for him to start the season on a high note.
WINGS TO AVOID
Jared McCann, SEA at VGK ($23): McCann is the inverse of Rust in a sense. He scored 40 goals last year, but his 19.0 percent shooting was well above his career 12.1 percent mark, so some regression is to be expected. There is a question about whether Logan Thompson or playoff hero Adin Hill will be in net, but the former had a .915 save percentage and the latter a .914, so either way it shakes out the same way to me.
Brandon Hagel, TAM vs. NAS ($19): While the Lightning might be good offensively this year, and I think they will, the team's forward depth has certainly taken a hit. Hagel scored 30 goals last season, but his projected linemates are Anthony Cirelli and Tyler Motte. It will be hard for Hagel to score 30 again, and Saros had a .919 save percentage last year, so he could prove to be a challenge.
DEFENSE
Shea Theodore, VGK vs. SEA ($20): Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo should both be productive, but who proves more useful during the campaign has yet to be determined. However, Theodore has a slightly lower salary, so I am going with him. He had 41 points last year, but in only 55 games. As previously noted, Grubauer has a save percentage below .900 since joining the Kraken.
Tyson Barrie, NAS at TAM ($16): Barrie will presumably log a lot of power-play time. That's why franchises employ him, and he's had over 20 power-play points in each of his last four seasons. The Lightning were 15th on the penalty kill last year, but that was with Andrei Vasilevskiy usually in net. Johansson is a decidedly lesser option.
DEFENSE TO AVOID
Victor Hedman, TAM vs. NAS ($19): There has been a changing of the guard on the Tampa Bay blue line. Mikhail Sergachev seems to be the new top defenseman for the Lightning, which makes sense in some ways. Hedman is 32 now, and he's coming off his worst season on the power play since the 2015-16 campaign. Even if the Swede is getting time with the extra man, the Predators ranked sixth on the penalty kill last year.
Adam Larsson, SEA at VGK ($17): Larsson scored 33 points last season, beating his previous best by eight points. He's 30 years old though, so can he do that again? Given that he does not play with the extra man at all, scoring is harder for the Swede. Vegas ranked 19th in penalty-kill percentage last season but 11th in GAA, making a defenseman with the ice-time profile of Larsson less attuned to this matchup.
