This article is part of our Hutch's Hockey series.
I'm running behind, so I'll keep it short up front this week. We're around the 30-game mark for most teams now. Generally, what a team has shown you so far is what they are.
Use this to your advantage when you're looking to make your moves. Outside of some extreme cases on either end, most players aren't going to vary a whole lot. If I'm going to buy low, I'm looking at a high-end player that is well below their last two or three seasons while remaining in a strong role. Injury absences can play a role here too -- if a player's missed time, or they've struggled after returning, they'll be a little undervalued. My top-three targets to buy low right now are Auston Matthews, Steven Stamkos and Jason Robertson.
On the flip side, you have to give to get. If you've got a player that has risen in value greatly this season, it's always worth considering a trade before that value disappears. The cautionary tale here is the league where I kept Alexandar Georgiev for this season. I didn't think the Avalanche would find a trade partner. They did, and now that he's a Shark, that investment has gone upside down. I find selling high much harder than buying low -- you want to time it right at peak value, and it can be frustrating to see someone you dealt away stay hot all year. I'd consider parting with players like Zach Werenski, Drake Batherson
I'm running behind, so I'll keep it short up front this week. We're around the 30-game mark for most teams now. Generally, what a team has shown you so far is what they are.
Use this to your advantage when you're looking to make your moves. Outside of some extreme cases on either end, most players aren't going to vary a whole lot. If I'm going to buy low, I'm looking at a high-end player that is well below their last two or three seasons while remaining in a strong role. Injury absences can play a role here too -- if a player's missed time, or they've struggled after returning, they'll be a little undervalued. My top-three targets to buy low right now are Auston Matthews, Steven Stamkos and Jason Robertson.
On the flip side, you have to give to get. If you've got a player that has risen in value greatly this season, it's always worth considering a trade before that value disappears. The cautionary tale here is the league where I kept Alexandar Georgiev for this season. I didn't think the Avalanche would find a trade partner. They did, and now that he's a Shark, that investment has gone upside down. I find selling high much harder than buying low -- you want to time it right at peak value, and it can be frustrating to see someone you dealt away stay hot all year. I'd consider parting with players like Zach Werenski, Drake Batherson or Mikael Granlund at this time. They're all good, enough to keep their managers interested, but they're generally on middle-to-low-end teams, which increases the risk of a slump.
Trading is not an exact science by any means. The overarching key to getting it right is to do it early. If there's a seismic shift in a player's value, especially downward, you don't want to be holding the bag. Identify your targets and start talking to your fellow managers to get a deal done.
Last week, I highlighted two members of the Kraken's third line, but it's time to also shine a spotlight on Eeli Tolvanen. He has a goal and five assists over his last five games, and he's added 23 hits in that span. Tolvanen has two qualities that make him interesting in fantasy: a strong shot and a ton of physicality. Head coach Dan Bylsma hesitated to give Tolvanen power-play time initially, but the winger got back into that role -- four of his 15 points this year have come with the man advantage. He's added 50 shots on net and 84 hits over 32 contests. Tolvanen doesn't boast the pedigree of a Shane Wright or the creativity of an Oliver Bjorkstrand, but they've made for an excellent trio in December.
While my opening suggests I don't have a lot of faith in the Senators in the playoff race, I still think pretty highly of Josh Norris. The center has been just fine this year, aside from one four-game slump. He has just two multi-game dry spells, but he also hasn't enjoyed a point streak of more than three contests. Everyone loves a world-beating streak, but few players are capable of that on a regular basis. Norris' steady play makes him a strong depth center. He has three goals and two assists over seven outings in December, and he has 20 points, 62 shots and 78 hits over 30 contests this season.
Kent Johnson has popped up in plenty of fantasy talk pieces all year, so I'll keep this one simple. He's exceeding a point-per-game pace, and as of Dec. 2, he has eligibility at all three forward positions in Yahoo formats. A natural center, he's mostly been on the wing this year. If he hadn't sustained a shoulder injury early on, he'd be the talk of the virtual game as pick-up of the year. When it comes to gift-giving, sometimes you have to treat yourself too. Johnson's still out there in 62 percent of formats, and while a practical gift like a utility knife can get groans, you'll thank yourself later if you scoop him up.
The Penguins have won six of their last nine games. Given their start to the year, it's a remarkable turnaround -- one that had me stumping for Tristan Jarry and Rickard Rakell last week. Now, it's Bryan Rust's turn. He has five goals and three assists over six games in December, and that includes a pair of scoreless outings. Injury risk is a real thing, but Rust has already missed a couple of chunks of time this season. He's a top-line, first power-play, gritty shoot-first winger. He's worth adding, but his usage is heavy, so don't expect the Penguins to put an extra layer of gift wrap on him.
I'm back on the Troy Terry train. He has two goals and six assists over seven outings in December, and he's playing top-six minutes as usual with the Ducks. He's got a good role on a bad team, but there's still offense to be found here. As usual with Terry, expect power-play production and shots with little else. If the production wanes, make sure you keep your gift receipt and exchange him for a hotter hand later.
Another Duck I'm keeping an eye on is Jackson LaCombe. He comes with a caveat that head coach Greg Cronin is still balancing playing time for his young defensemen, and he hasn't hesitated to scratch any of them to watch a game or two with a bird's eye view. The same risk applies to Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zellweger and Drew Helleson. Still, things are changing on the blue line in Anaheim, with a defensive specialist in Jacob Trouba on board and the more well-rounded Cam Fowler off to St. Louis to open up more premium offensive-zone time. LaCombe is currently the one getting the time on the power play, and he's responded to a Dec. 11 scratch in Ottawa with a pair of two-point efforts since he returned to the lineup. In the long run, I like Zellweger best, but I'm willing to chase the production for now.
It may be a little after the fact, but Haydn Fleury has quietly done well for the Jets recently. He has five assists over his last nine games, playing mainly on the second pairing during the absence of Dylan Samberg (foot). Fleury is 28 years old and has never been much of a fantasy factor, so I'm not expecting this to last. He had just one assist over his last 12 games this season and couldn't make the lineup when the Jets were healthy. For fantasy purposes, Fleury's a deep-league option who adds enough in hits and blocked shots to make him an option when his offense is good. Those in standard formats can pick from better options.
Morgan Geekie makes very little sense to me in fantasy. I saw him play regularly during his time in Seattle, and I thought those two years were his peak. He then put up 39 points in 76 regular-season outings last year. When he started slow this year, it looked like an overdue correction, but interim head coach Joe Sacco has Geekie in a top-six role alongside David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha. Even with the Bruins' struggles, that spot is too good to ignore. Geekie has four goals and three assists over his last nine games, and if he stays there, he'll once again be a solid depth option in fantasy, especially since he's also seeing power-play time.
If you're looking for a stocking stuffer on defense, it's again time for Esa Lindell. He's one of those players who chips in a little offense every now and then to stand out on the waiver wire -- he has three assists over seven games in December. He'll help you in blocked shots primarily, and he can add some hits too. For the season, Lindell has 11 points, 57 blocks, 26 hits and a plus-4 rating over 29 appearances, putting him on track to top the 30-point mark for the first time since 2018-19.
If you need help in goal, look to the mountains. The Avalanche overhauled their crease, uniting Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood in a span of a couple of weeks. I see Blackwood as the No. 1 here -- he held his own behind the Sharks' defense, and the Avalanche have a much better blue line. It's possible Blackwood gets consideration for Team Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off if there's an injury to one of the team's goalies before the tournament. Blackwood got a look at Wedgewood's old team, the Predators, in a 5-2 win Saturday, stopping 37 of 39 shots. In leagues where saves are heavily valued, Blackwood might take a slight drop in value, but he should make up for it in wins and better ratios. Wedgewood is a consideration in deeper formats as well for many of the same reasons. The Avalanche's moves have lit a fire under a team that is far from fully healthy but has enough key players to get back to their expected level of competition. Grabbing one or both of these goalies could help your fantasy squad overcome its own struggles between the pipes.
I don't understand the discrepancy in the rostered rates for the Capitals' goalies. Logan Thompson is at 74 percent as of Sunday afternoon, while Charlie Lindgren is at a much more modest 33 percent. Thompson has been the better goalie, but this is a timeshare situation for one of the best teams in the league. Lindgren is 9-5-0 with a 2.66 GAA and a .901 save percentage -- he's no Vezina candidate, but he's steady, though a little less so than last year. If Lindgren is available in your league, go get him, especially if you need wins. The Capitals are simply finding ways to win this year, often with disregard for the opponent or situation, and both goalies have some experience with a starting role when their tandem part has gotten hurt in years past.
When it comes to your fantasy hockey holiday shopping, many of the same rules from the real world apply. Namely, know your budget and don't procrastinate. Sure, you can make moves all year, but the trade deadline will be here before you know it. Whether you're going all-out or just adding a couple of players who are nice to have around, it's good to take a stern look at your roster right now before the holiday season takes up your time. Make some moves now so that you're not scrambling to the waiver wire when you've got family around. I'll be back next week with a way-too-early awards season prediction list ahead of the light week around Christmas. All the best to you all at this special time of year.
