This article is part of our Frozen Fantasy series.
We're almost a quarter-way through the NHL season. I know – it's hard to believe.
Unprecedented is so 2020. But it applies.
In a normal season, we'd be talking U.S. Thanksgiving and the implications for on-ice teams and fantasy managers. But everything has been turned upside down. So how do we adjust?
I wish I had some magic answer or even a crystal ball. I don't think anyone does. It's just so hard to know if trends are real or completely unique to this year.
Contradiction is so 2021. Sigh. Like these observations:
- Goaltending isn't as important in fantasy as we think. On Saturday, the top five goalies in GAA were, in order, Petr Mrazek, Marc-Andre Fleury, Philipp Grubauer, Jaroslav Halak and Chris Driedger (below). Even Kevin Lankinen (12th) was ahead of Tuukka Rask (14th), Jacob Markstrom (15th) and Connor Hellebuyck (19th).
- Goaltending is more important on the ice than ever. Jacob Markstrom deserves more credit than he gets. He masked a lot of issues in Vancouver. By the same token, Matt Murray's contributions to the Pens' success come with a giant salt shaker. And the Caps made Braden Holtby better, not the other way around.
- Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl now may be better than Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in their prime. This analysis proves it. It's a good read. I still struggle with it though – advanced analytics don't win Stanley Cups.
- Marc Bergevin is hands down the general manager of the
We're almost a quarter-way through the NHL season. I know – it's hard to believe.
Unprecedented is so 2020. But it applies.
In a normal season, we'd be talking U.S. Thanksgiving and the implications for on-ice teams and fantasy managers. But everything has been turned upside down. So how do we adjust?
I wish I had some magic answer or even a crystal ball. I don't think anyone does. It's just so hard to know if trends are real or completely unique to this year.
Contradiction is so 2021. Sigh. Like these observations:
- Goaltending isn't as important in fantasy as we think. On Saturday, the top five goalies in GAA were, in order, Petr Mrazek, Marc-Andre Fleury, Philipp Grubauer, Jaroslav Halak and Chris Driedger (below). Even Kevin Lankinen (12th) was ahead of Tuukka Rask (14th), Jacob Markstrom (15th) and Connor Hellebuyck (19th).
- Goaltending is more important on the ice than ever. Jacob Markstrom deserves more credit than he gets. He masked a lot of issues in Vancouver. By the same token, Matt Murray's contributions to the Pens' success come with a giant salt shaker. And the Caps made Braden Holtby better, not the other way around.
- Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl now may be better than Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in their prime. This analysis proves it. It's a good read. I still struggle with it though – advanced analytics don't win Stanley Cups.
- Marc Bergevin is hands down the general manager of the year. We thought it was miraculous the Habs got into the playoffs last year. Now they look like the NHL's best team.
- The Rangers aren't the Raiders. Tony DeAngelo's best shot was on Broadway. Todd Bertuzzi ultimately got a second chance in Detroit. I think DeAngelo's chances for that are slim, no matter the talent.
- Get used to PPD, despite PPE. COVID keeps disrupting NHL games and fantasy lineups alike. It won't stop. There are now variants of the disease that spread six or seven times faster than COVID did last year. New measures by the NHL mean we all need to get used to "out of an abundance of caution".
- Divisions are amazing. And awful. I'm Canadian, so I love the North. I also hate it, because I spend far too much time watching those games and too little time watching other divisions. The NHL is regional, so this comes as no surprise. But I have this nagging worry that I could miss something special and never know it happened. You?
Let's take a look at who caught my eye this week. Despite the contradictions LOL.
Chris Driedger, G, Florida (34 percent Yahoo!) – Don't wait on this guy. Panthers' coach Joel Quenneville has been pretty clear on how his goalies will get used. Both will split time early and then performance will dictate from there. And that's where Driedger has the edge. Or should I say head, shoulders and soon-to-be torso above Sergei Bobrovsky. Oh, how the mighty have fallen (or fallen apart). 1A/1B has emerged as the twinetending standard, but Drieds has a clear shot at the A part of that ratio, even with the big man's $10-mil salary hanging out there.
Joel Farabee, LW/RW, Philadelphia (36 percent Yahoo!) – Scouts questioned this young man's skating and doubted his creativity on Draft Day. But Farabee shut those critics up Sunday night in a big way when he became just the third Flyer in history to log a hattie before turning 21. Short-term, he's putting up points – he has five goals in his last six games and nine points (six goals, three helpers) in 12 overall. Farabee looks like he's consolidating his potential and skill into real outputs. His ownership doubled this week on the back of Sunday's performance. Just don't overinvest – he's a third liner with no power-play time. But hot is hot.
Barclay Goodrow, LW/C, Tampa Bay (4 percent Yahoo!) – Those in deep formats should take a hard look at Goodrow, who delivers a little bit of everything on Tampa's third line. He's on a scoring roll with four points (two goals, two assists) in his last three games, and he also adds a few shots, hits and blocks every game. All without hurting your plus-minus. Goodrow isn't going to excel in any category, but a hard-working third liner on a stud team is always going to be better than one from a team stumbling through the season.
Radko Gudas, D, Florida (6 percent Yahoo!) – Gudas is leading the hit parade this week – I'm talking 19 in his last two games. In a category-based head-to-head format, his burly bravado can help you take that category without hurting you in other categories.
Nino Niederreiter, LW/RW, Carolina (10 percent Yahoo!) – Niederreiter is consistently inconsistent – he's never been able to sustain his 20-plus-goal promise from the very start of his career. He's in an El Nino phase right now, so snap him up and is riding a three-game, three-point streak heading into Sunday while firing 13 shots during that span. Like Carter Verhaeghe below, Niederreiter is what he is. Activate while hot and drop when La Nina begins. Because it will.
Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Edmonton (19 percent Yahoo!) – Puljujarvi has no better chance than now to prove what he did with Karpat last season can finally translate onto North American ice. He's skating beside a fantasy god and has the speed to actually keep up with McSavior. The result? Puljujarvi snagged two goals in his last game. The Oilers are desperate to find someone – anyone – to score besides Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Puljujarvi is going to get every opportunity to show off his fourth overall draft status. And if he even taps into it a little bit … well, you get the point.
Jordan Staal, C, Carolina (17 percent Yahoo!) – Staal has been on fire this week. Over his last seven days (ending Friday), the wily veteran ranked eighth overall in my Friends and Family league. We count goals (one), assists (four), plus minus (plus-2), PPP (two), SOG (four), FW (50), hits (11) and blocks (six). That was better production than anyone else on my entire team, which includes Brad Marchand, Jonathan Huberdeau and Brayden Point. He's now mine.
Tim Stutzle, LW, Ottawa (28 percent Yahoo!) – Stutzle is one of the few reasons to watch the Sens. He roared into Saturday on a three-game goal streak and five points. He's impressive in how he reads the game and his skill puts me on the edge of my seat. I picked Quinton Byfield with pick two in my keeper draft, but have doubted it ever since. And more each day. Stutzle may not be a consistent contributor because he's a Sen, but he's sure going to be a blast to watch.
Carter Verhaeghe, LW/C, Florida (24 percent Yahoo!) – Verhaeghe is the current poster child for the salary cap – and the epitome of our collective waiver challenge. Cheap and with talent, wingers like him allow teams to pay big money for their stars. And that's why the kitties added him to their litter box. Verhaeghe plugs a hole. But there's a reason why the 25-year-old didn't stick with the Leafs or the Bolts. Right now, he's plugging a hole on the top line in Florida and has four goals and two helpers in his last six games. His game has plateaued – he's already 25. But he's a must-add right now until he cools. Fantasy management is tough. You'll dump Verhaeghe soon enough to get the next shiny thing.
Back to contradictions.
I don't really believe in luck. I believe you make your own success and good things happen when you see the world with optimism.
But this fantasy season, I am wondering out loud if dumb luck is what is going to win.
How else can I explain why my squad anchored by Auston Matthews, Alex Ovechkin and Patrik Laine up front, and Shea Theodore on the blue line, dropped from second to almost second-last in the course of about 10 days. I only roll five skaters and one goalie per game!
Ten days in 2021 are starting to feel like 20 from any other. I hope that isn't the case the rest of the way. Maybe I'll get lucky.
Or live the season in contradiction.
Until next week.