This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Orlando, Florida
Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge - Par 72 - 7,466 yards
Field - 72 entrants
Purse - $20M
The Preview
After a several-week hiatus, golf contests have reappeared in Yahoo's DFS lobby for the PGA Tour's fourth Signature Event of 2025, as Bay Hill Club hosts a stacked field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Although only 72 entrants make their way to Arnie's place in the Orlando area, a cut to the low 50 and ties, as well as those within 10 shots of the leader, still exists after the first 36 holes.
Despite stretching to nearly 7,500 yards on the scorecard, Bay Hill doesn't always reward driving distance as much as it might appear on paper. In addition to a few forced layups, thick rough surrounds these fairways, placing a greater emphasis on accuracy off the tee as long irons often find the hands of those who take their medicine. Each of the four par-3s measure at least 199 yards, which is another reason nearly 50 percent of approach shots figure to come from 175-plus yards out this week. Adding to Bay Hill's difficulty level, windier conditions are expected Thursday and Sunday to bookend this tournament with a weather element factoring into the equation.
Recent Champions
2024 - Scottie Scheffler
2023 - Kurt Kitayama
2022 - Scottie Scheffler
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton
2019 - Francesco Molinari
2018 - Rory McIlroy
2017 - Marc Leishman
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Matt Every
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Proximity: 175-plus yards
SG: Off-the-Tee
Bogey Avoidance
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Scottie Scheffler - $45
As always, Yahoo DFS provides the least expensive route to gaining Scheffler exposure in your weekly portfolio with their $45 limit on the maximum salary, so his ownership will be astronomical once again, especially given his pair of victories here at Bay Hill since 2022. Scheffler's ball striking appeared rusty throughout his final 54 holes at The Genesis Invitational, but he still notched a third-place result while ultimately gaining a collective 6.6 strokes on and around the greens in his most recent outing.
Rory McIlroy - $40
A horse for the course with six top-10s and a win across 10 career Arnold Palmer Invitational appearances, McIlroy has posted some insane tee-to-green numbers here in Orlando, and he's No. 1 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and driving distance over his last 50 measured rounds. Earning outright odds near the 8/1 mark this week, it's laughable that McIlroy is priced below Wyndham Clark in this spot.
Justin Thomas - $38
Thomas has been absent from the winner's circle on the PGA Tour for over a thousand days now, but this could be his "due" moment back in comfortable Floridian territory. He's been extremely sharp with his iron play as of late, ascending to No. 1 in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds, while also ranking third in P4: 450-500 Efficiency, fifth in Bogey Avoidance and seventh in SG: Par-5 during this stretch. Throughout his three prior trips to Bay Hill, Thomas gained a combined 15.1 strokes with his ball striking, most recently tying for 12th here last year when he finished third among the field in par-5 scoring and driving distance.
Glue Guys
Shane Lowry - $33
Lowry had always struggled at the API before notching a solo third-place effort here last year when he held at least a share of the lead after each of the first three rounds, ultimately finishing top-6 in both FIR and GIR percentages on the way to 19 total birdies and an eagle. He's now coming off a T11 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches where he gained 5.8 strokes on approach over his final 36 holes, and Lowry has gained strokes off the tee in each of his first four starts to begin 2025.
Russell Henley - $33
Henley might lack the win equity required to be worth the $33 stab in GPPs, but he's a mighty fine cash-game piece thanks in large part to his driving accuracy and putting prowess, especially on bermuda greens. He just gained nearly five strokes ball striking at PGA National en route to a T6 last week, marking Henley's third top-10 finish over his last four events played dating back to the Sony Open in Hawaii. He also tied for fourth here at Bay Hill last year when he led the field in putting average and SG: Putting from 5-10 feet.
Sam Burns - $29
This is more so just identifying an inefficient price compared to market consensus than it is loving Burns' fit for Bay Hill, but he is a bermuda specialist and he does rank fifth in P3: 200-225 Efficiency over his last 24 rounds. The $29 salary is a significant discount compared to his rate elsewhere in the DFS streets, so he could be a common building block in more balanced lineups on Yahoo this week, though his iron play is a primary concern at the moment.
Bargain Bin
Taylor Pendrith - $24
A lack of promising course history combined with a missed cut at PGA National last week could provide an ownership discount on Pendrith despite the deflated salary, which I'd definitely be comfortable targeting in GPPs. He only MC'd by one shot at the Cognizant, and his ball striking was actually quite good as he gained a combined 4.2 strokes off the tee and on approach throughout just 36 holes. A quality result for the Canadian likely banks on positive short-game regression.
Will Zalatoris - $20
This will be Zalatoris' third consecutive start at the $20 minimum, which isn't where he belongs, so expect pretty chalky ownership percentages in stars-and-scrubs constructions. He paced last year's API field in FIR percentage on the way to a T4 finish, and Zalatoris gained at least 5.6 strokes ball striking in each of his first four career outings at Bay Hill.
Daniel Berger - $20
An extremely popular Berger played his first 27 holes in 12-under-par while rising to the top of the live odds board Friday of last week at PGA National, but he didn't look right throughout the weekend, ultimately falling outside the top-20 as he especially struggled with his iron play in Rounds 3 and 4. Despite landing down here at the minimum salary, Berger's ownership hopefully gets held somewhat in check compared to last week, and he still models extremely well for a punt-play option over his past 12 and 24 rounds.
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