Weekly Preview: U.S. Open

U.S. Open

Torrey Pines South
La Jolla, CA

The PGA Tour heads to storied Torrey Pines this week for the season's third major. 

As always, there are plenty of storylines, but I must say that things feel a bit odd with many of the best players in the world nowhere near their peak right now. More on that later as we delve into the players that look like the best values this week. One interesting aspect no one saw coming but everyone will be talking about -- at least leading up to Thursday -- is Phil Mickelson's quest for the Career Grand Slam. Not long ago it appeared there was no hope for him to win another major, let alone a U.S. Open, but after his incredible performance at the PGA Championship, apparently anything is possible. We'll also be keeping an eye on the Brooks Koepka/Bryson DeChambeau feud to see if either of the players that combined to win three of the last four U.S. Opens can add another to his tally. Then there's Jordan Spieth and his attempt to close the circle on his comeback with a major win. Don't forget Dustin Johnson, who appeared to find his game last week, and ditto  Jon Rahm, who had what appeared to be an easy win taken away with a positive COVID-19 test two weeks ago. 

I could keep going with the storylines for several more paragraphs and that's the beauty of the majors. There's always excitement, even if a lot of the best players in the world aren't on top of their games.

LAST YEAR

Bryson DeChambeau shot a final-round 67 on his way to a six-stroke victory over Matthew Wolff.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (10-1)

As mentioned earlier, there aren't many elite golfers at their best right now, but Rahm is the exception. When we last saw him he was lapping the field at the Memorial, only to see his tournament cut short after three rounds. While that was terrible for Rahm, the good news is that his game is exactly where it needs to be to win a major. Plus, with him already getting the green light to take the course, his preparation should not have been altered significantly. I believe this is the week for Rahm, but as always, the question will be if he can keep his cool if things start to go awry.

Dustin Johnson (14-1)

Prior to the Palmetto Championship there was no reason to think DJ would be a factor at this year's U.S. Open, but after a solid showing it looks like he might have another run in him. With so many of his peers struggling, this would be an opportune time to find that extra gear that helped him crush the competition late last season.

Xander Schauffele (16-1)

Schauffele is generally a trendy pick at the majors, but he's rarely among the first group of favorites like he is this week. There are a couple reasons for that, though. First, as has been already discussed several times, the super-elite players are not in great form for the most part. Second, Schauffele is one of a few guys that has both a solid record at the U.S. Open and some success at Torrey Pines. He has finished no worse than T6 in his four U.S. Open appearances and finished T2 at this track earlier in the season.

THE NEXT TIER

Collin Morikawa (20-1)

This is not a pick based on course or event history, as Morikawa's track record at both Torrey Pines and the U.S. Open is limited. This pick is based on the "it" factor, and Morikawa seems to have "it." He's won on the biggest stages already, so pressure should not be an issue. Plus, he's proven to be wise beyond his years when it comes to getting around tough terrain. Morikawa is quickly becoming a go-to pick for the sport's biggest events.

Viktor Hovland (25-1)

Hovland entered the past few majors with a lot of buzz, but that seems to have quieted a bit prior to this one, and that's good news for him. Under the radar is exactly where you want to be prior to a major, and since Hovland has not made waves recently, the pressure won't be immense. Now, if he plays well early, he'll have plenty of eyeballs on him on the weekend, but he can handle it.

Patrick Reed (30-1)

Based on course history alone, Reed should be among the favorites this week, but you have to remember that although this is Torrey Pines, it's not exactly the same course they play the Farmers Insurance Open on. The USGA has tweaked things to make it up to U.S. Open standards, so it will be different. Still, guys like Reed, who've had a lot of success on this track, should have a slight advantage. Reed won the Farmers event earlier this year and he's done no worse than T23 in his past four starts on this course.

LONG SHOTS

Corey Conners (60-1)

I'm a little surprised that Conners doesn't have better odds, but I'm not going to complain. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open last year, but since then he's posted a top-10 at the Masters, another at THE PLAYERS and a top-20 at the PGA Championship. He's also made the cut in his only two trips to Torrey Pines.

Sam Burns (80-1)

I'm not sure what Burns' ceiling is, but I know it's pretty high. Is it so high that he could blow his best chance to win a PGA event, then a couple weeks later hold on for his first PGA Tour win, then pick up his first major? I guess we'll see, but he seems to be on the right trajectory to make a lot of noise.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - This pick seems clear-cut. There are reasons to avoid everyone else in the field, but I can't find a good one to fade Rahm, other than the fact he hasn't won a major. Still, we all know he's going to win multiple majors, right? He has to start somewhere and I think this is the week.

Moderately-owned Pick: Brooks Koepka - If you're like me you've been saving Koepka for the right major all season, and this could be the place. Sure, he didn't look good this past week, but no one really expected him to bring his "A" game to that event, did they? Koepka may not be 100 percent healthy yet, but he's shown the ability to ramp up his game at the majors even when he's not at full speed, and he'll do that this week.

Lightly-owned Pick: Collin Morikawa - It seems weird that someone with Morikawa's resume could be overlooked, but Rahm is going to be very popular and many OAD players will be wondering when they can use Koepka if not at the U.S Open. So, if you are on Morikawa at Torrey Pines, you'll likely make a big move if he plays well...which I expect him to.

Buyer Beware: Bryson DeChambeau - To my surprise and many others, DeChambeau was able to bomb-and-gouge his way to a U.S. Open victory in 2020. However, he was on a different level at this time a year ago. DeChambeau won earlier this year, but he's not quite at the place he was when the Tour's hiatus ended last summer.

Last Week: Vincent Whaley - MC - $0

Season Total: $4,048,001

This Week: Jon Rahm - I actually have quite a bit of firepower left to choose from, but Rahm is the smart play. I'm well behind in the standings and I'd like to make a move, but even though he'll be a really popular play I have to go with the guy I expect to win. I might not have an ideal place to use Koepka later this season, but everything points to Rahm and I agree.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Collin Morikawa ($11,200)
Middle Range: Tony Finau ($10,600)
Lower Range: Harris English ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Vincent Whaley - MC

Streak: 0

This Week: Jon Rahm - There's no sense in messing around here. I'm banking on the top option on the board making the cut. Rahm not only is on top of his game, he's played very well at Torrey Pines over the years as well. He won the Farmers Insurance Open in 2017 and has three additional top-10s here as well.