Weekly Preview: Sanderson Farms Championship

Sanderson Farms Championship

Country Club of Jackson
Jackson, MS

The PGA Tour heads to Mississippi for this week's Sanderson Farms Championship.

Before we get there, let's take a quick look back at this past week. Another Presidents Cup is in the books, and it was another -- relatively -- easy win for the U.S. Team. It's safe to say this era will go down as the glory years for the U.S. squad, as not only have they dominated the Presidents Cup, they've taken away the stranglehold the Europeans had on the Ryder Cup. Now, winning on European soil is the next step, but looking at how the teams are shaping up for next year's event, it's easy to envision another U.S. win. That's a year away, however, and we've got a lot of golf to play before then. 

Next up is the fall season, which will take us through November. This stretch will be interesting not only for the action on the course, but the talk off of it. This is a huge period for LIV Golf, as if things remain as-is, it will likely lose a lot of momentum. If the viewership numbers are any indication, it's already happening. They need to make news off the course to maintain pace, and a few months without a splash is not good for business. How things play out over the next few months will be very intriguing, just like the event we have this week! 

Okay, I tried. Look, it's the fall, and we are going to have some events that don't really grab your attention. That's part of what comes with playing nearly every week throughout the year, so let's make the best of it. As you might imagine just a few days removed from the Presidents Cup, the field is a bit thin. There are at least a few players to watch, though, so there's hope for an exciting weekend.
                              
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Sam Burns shot a final-round 67 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Cameron Young and Nick Watney.

FAVORITES

Sam Burns (19-2)

Well, favorites are 1-0 this season, as Max Homa took down the Fortinet Championship two weeks ago. Not only was he the top choice of the oddsmakers, he was the defending champ, just like Burns is here. The big difference is that Burns just played the Presidents Cup, which was at least to some degree physically and emotionally draining. It's hard to know what he has left in the tank, but give him credit for showing up to defend his title. Though Homa pulled off a win two weeks ago at these odds, I don't like the short odds on Burns coming off a taxing week.

Sahith Theegala (18-1)

Theegala caught a lot of attention for his play late last season, and he backed it up with a T6 out of the gate at the Fortinet Championship. A win is not far off, and considering the strength of the field, this could be the spot. We're starting to get back to spots where Theegala has some course history, which is a bonus. He posted a T8 here this past year.

Denny McCarthy (24-1)

Russell Henley has snuck past McCarthy on the betting board, but McCarthy still checks in with the fourth lowest odds. It's not often that he is thought of this highly by the oddsmakers or the public, but there is some steam on him early in the current campaign. McCarthy is definitely on the way up and his track record at this event is pretty solid, with two top-20s and two top-10s in his four most recent starts in Mississippi.

THE NEXT TIER

Taylor Montgomery (26-1)

The latest "Taylor" to join the Tour is the one with the last name "Montgomery," who burst onto the scene with a solo third in his first start as a PGA Tour rookie two weeks ago. Any time a newcomer starts that fast he's bound to gain some attention, and that's exactly what has happened, as only four players check in above Montgomery on the betting board. Can he have another strong showing this week?

J.T. Poston (27-1)

Poston made a name for himself late last season when he posted a T2 at the Travelers in late June and followed that up with a win at the John Deere Classic. Not satisfied, he carded four top-25s in his final five starts of the season. The last time we saw Poston he finished T15 at the TOUR Championship, and while it's impossible to know if he is still on top of his game, we do know he should have a lot more confidence than he has at this point in previous years.

Scott Stallings (29-1)

What Stallings did this past season was, well, hard to explain. Stallings had posted six consecutive seasons below $1.2 million in earnings, and then at the age of 36, he had by far his best season on the PGA Tour, racking up nearly $4 million in earnings. Perhaps we can credit his body transformation for the improved play, but whatever the reason, it was a sight to behold. Can he build on that success? I think we'll get some answers early this season. If he's truly a $4 million player, he should be able to take advantage of a field like this.

LONG SHOTS

Chris Kirk (55-1)

After making over $2 million in back-to-back seasons, it's safe to say Kirk has resurrected his career. His issues off the course have been well documented, and it's nice to see him regain a solid standing on Tour. Kirk's track record in Mississippi is scattered, but that undoubtedly has more to do with his aforementioned struggles than his fondness for this course. In 2016 he finished T2 here, and with his game back to where it was at that time, perhaps he can make another run.

Henrik Norlander (110-1)

There's no debating that Norlander is coming off a terrible season. He came in with some expectations, but he fell flat. He did show promise during his first two seasons on the PGA Tour but simply hasn't played that well since then. When it comes to real long shots, though -- like Norlander this week -- all you want is a glimmer of hope. and he finished T4 here the past two years. With three digits on the left side of the equation, what more could you want?

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Sam Burns - This is the exact situation we had with Homa two weeks ago. Like Homa, Burns is the best option, but do you feel comfortable using him this early in the season Better yet, do you feel comfortable turning to him the week after the Presidents Cup? I don't expect him to fall flat, but a win would be surprising.

Moderately-owned Pick: Taylor Montgomery - If you're like me, you are doing everything you can to avoid using the bigger names early in the season. Enter Montgomery, who could turn out to be a bigger name later this season but for now is just a rookie with promise. He's got momentum on his side, so this might be the optimal spot for him.

Lightly-owned Pick: Chris Kirk - Kirk is pretty far down the betting board, which should give him good cover in OAD leagues. If you don't want to go with someone you might want to use later in the season -- including promising young players like Theegala or Montgomery -- then Kirk might be your best option.

Buyer Beware: Davis Riley - It's tough to find players worthy of "avoid" status among a group of players such as this, but Riley is one of the better-known players in the field, so he qualifies. Now, why look elsewhere? Well, he simply hasn't played well in a while. He was flat down the stretch of the previous campaign and missed the cut in the season opener earlier this month.

This Week: Denny McCarthy - This pick came down to three guys, with the two others being Montgomery and Kirk. Ultimately I decided against Montgomery because he's still unproven, and I faded Kirk because he has just one top-20 since mid-June. McCarthy has established himself as a fairly reliable middle-tier golfer, and with his track record here he could pounce at the opportunity to earn his first PGA Tour win. 

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Sahith Theegala ($11,600)
Middle Range: Denny McCarthy ($10,500)
Lower Range: Robby Shelton ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Denny McCarthy - We dropped a clunker in the season opener, as Reavie had a rough go of it and failed to play the weekend. That's not going to happen this week, though, as McCarthy is on the way up and is less likely to get tripped up in a weak field. His course history also put me at ease.

Previous Results