Weekly Preview: BMW Championship

BMW Championship

Wilmington CC
Wilmington, DE

The PGA Tour heads to Delaware for the second leg of the FedExCup Playoffs -- the BMW Championship.

Before we get to that, though, let's take a quick look back at this past week, because something pretty big happened. That of course was the first of many PGA Tour wins for Will Zalatoris. I can't recall another player quite as accomplished picking up his first career victory. Not only was Zalatoris supremely successful at the majors this season, but prior to that, he had several close calls at other stops the previous year. Before that he was one of the most highly touted prospects in a long time. To say this win was a long time coming is an understatement. Now, what happens from here? This past season it was thought that the floodgates would open for Tony Finau after his second PGA Tour win, and although that has happened, it took a while longer than most of us expected. So although the burden of winning is now off Zalatoris' shoulders, he might not have more success immediately. Then again, he already showed up in the biggest of spots this season, so you never know. 

As for this week, we've got no course history, but at least everyone in the field played this past week, so we have that.
                              
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 8:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Patrick Cantlay shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Bryson DeChambeau.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (10-1)

The odds chart is interesting because it gives us a glimpse at who the oddsmakers and the public believe to be the best golfers right now. With no course history, all we have is current form and overall skills. McIlroy's form is not great, but he's a gamer and should tune things up over the next two weeks. With that said, this price is ridiculously low for someone playing a new track.

Jon Rahm (12-1)

It doesn't take much for people to get excited about Rahm. He posted a top-10 this past week and suddenly the perception is he is back. Personally, I think he needs an offseason to find his best form, which means although he played well in Memphis, I don't think we'll be seeing him lift a trophy before the season ends. As such, there's no value at this number.

Justin Thomas (14-1)

The first playoff event has always been more of a feeling out process for most of the field, but things get real in the two tournaments that follow. If that pattern holds this year, we should expect to see the cream rise to the top in Delaware, and Thomas should be one of those contending for a win come Sunday. The problem here is that he just doesn't offer much value at this price. It's a short field, but it's full of elite players -- many who are playing well.

THE NEXT TIER

Collin Morikawa (18-1)

Much like Rahm, golf fans seem to get very excited whenever Morikawa shows some signs of life. Morikawa has been off of his game for most of the season, but he has shown some signs at certain times. Perhaps he's got something to prove these final two weeks, as after a year under the spotlight he's spent most of this year in the shadows. I expect Morikawa to close out the campaign strong, and at these odds, the value is there for a win bet.

Viktor Hovland (27-1)

Speaking of those who have been quiet, Hovland has garnered virtually no headlines in 2022. The most ink he's received has revolved around his lack of short game, which must be frustrating. Lost in all of that is that this guy is a tremendous talent who can win out here in spite of his issues around the green. He showed some signs this past week that his game is coming around, and at this price he might be worth a look.

Joohyung Kim (33-1)

He wasn't a factor this past week, but who can blame him? He just picked up his first PGA Tour win. Kim looks like a special talent along the lines of Hovland, Morikawa and Zalatoris. If he were to win in the playoffs -- at such a young age -- that would solidify that he's a superstar in the making. While it's obviously a long shot, he's got the game to pull it off, and if he does win again, the days of him being priced in this range will be long gone.

LONG SHOTS

Sahith Theegala (80-1)

It seems like we've been waiting for Theegala to break through for a while, but it's only been about six months since he posted his first top-3. Since then he's had a couple close calls, and anyone who has watched him can see he's got the game to win many times. As we've seen with Zalatoris, however, winning does not always come easy, even for those who are supremely talented. Theegala will get his win sometime soon, and once that happens, he'll no longer be a long shot.

J.T. Poston (95-1)

Poston has been one of the bigger surprises this season. He started the fall by missing every single cut -- six in all. He found his game a couple months ago, however, and turned it into a win and a runner-up in consecutive starts. Perhaps most impressive is that he hasn't gotten complacent since his hot stretch, carding three consecutive top-25s heading into this week. He's a long shot for sure, but he's on top of his game right now, so he has a chance.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Tony Finau - The question this week is, who is left on any OAD rosters? I can't imagine many have McIlroy, Rahm, or JT as their disposal, but perhaps some missed out on Finau's recent run. It's hard to tell, but if you have Finau available, this would be a good time to use him.

Moderately-owned Pick: Viktor Hovland - I saw a lot of Hovland picks this past week and that was largely due to the fact that there never seemed like a great time to use him this season. If you have him left, though, this might be the best spot for him.

Lightly-owned Pick: J.T. Poston - I'm going to stick with Poston as he hasn't let me down yet. It's tough to take a guy like him with only two events left of the schedule, especially if you have guys ranked higher than him left. Still, if you need to make a big move, I can guarantee you not many -- if any -- owners will be on Poston.

Buyer Beware: Scottie Scheffler - This is certainly a scary proposition, as Scheffler is as good as it gets, but something is off right now in his game and I'm not sure he has it fixed for this week. Scheffler missed the cut in two of his past three starts, and while he's capable of turning it around at any moment, I don't see a good showing here.

Season Total: $10,536,640

This Week: Viktor Hovland - This time of the year the picks you make are often the result of what you have left versus want you want to do. That's the case this week, as Hovland is not at the top of his game but has more talent that most of the other guys I have at my disposal. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but that's what you get sometimes at the end of the season.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Justin Thomas ($11,200)
Middle Range: Collin Morikawa ($10,600)
Lower Range: Sahith Theegala ($8,900)