Weekly PGA Preview: The Genesis Invitational

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

The Genesis Invitational

Torrey Pines South
San Diego, CA

The PGA Tour heads back to San Diego for another edition of The Genesis Invitational.  

Just over a month into the new season and it feels like we are starting to hit our stride. It has little to do with the winners however, this feeling is based mostly on the fact that just two weeks removed from a signature event, we get another one this week, which means of course that all the big names are back this week. There's nothing like seeing the big names almost every other week to ramp up the excitement. Rory McIlroy winning the most recent signature event doesn't hurt either.  

On the downside, no Tiger Woods this week as he's decided to take more time to grieve the loss of his mom. Completely understandable, but we can also be bummed that he won't be playing this week. I was looking forward to seeing how he navigated Torrey Pines after having so much success on this course earlier in his career, but that will have to wait, maybe next year.

As for what we can expect this week. Well, I mentioned a few weeks ago that any golfer with a good history at the Farmers Insurance Open would be in play this week, so that should make your research a little lighter this week and that's usually a good thing. One thing to keep in mind however is that they're only playing the South Course this week, so that could change things a bit. If you're looking at the history, check how they played on the weekend as that will be a better indicator of how they'll do this week.

Looking at the field, it will be very similar to what we had at Pebble Beach and yes, that means no Xander Schauffele. Schauffele is the only missing piece right now, so hopefully he gets back soon.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Hideki Matsuyama shot a final round 63 on his way to three-stroke victory over Luke List. 

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (4-1) 

I'm a little surprised that Scheffler's odds haven't dropped more than this. It's not that he's played terrible in his first two starts, but he certainly hasn't been himself either and the only way he should be getting less than 5-1 is if he's the Scheffler we've become accustomed to over the past couple years. His track record here (Farmers results) is not very good either, with two missed cuts in three starts. Scheffler is not going to fall flat unless he gets injured or arrested, so I'm not saying he's going to play poorly this week, but the odds are just a little too light for my liking. Anything less than 5-1 is out of the question until he shows his old form for four rounds. 

Rory McIlroy (7-1)

I mentioned earlier this year that we were in a new era of the big-two with Scheffler and Schauffele, but apparently, McIlroy has something to say about that. It will be interesting to see how far McIlroy can take his game this year. He's already got a signature event in hand and he's only one start into the new season. Of course we're all looking ahead to the majors with Rory, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go scorched Earth to start this season as well. Then again, results have rarely matched expectations for McIlroy over the past decade, so with all this newfound support behind him, perhaps a letdown is coming? Ah, no need to get tangled up here, his track record here is solid, he's got the form, this looks like a good play.

Justin Thomas (18-1)

Collin Morikawa is at 14-1 to start the week, but I'm leaning JT over him this week because of his recent play. Morikawa had the runner-up at the Sentry, but he's only played once since then and it resulted in a T17, which in a 60-man field isn't great. Anyhow, as for JT, he's looking like his old self this season, but he's struggled in signature events, hopefully that's just a coincidence as he's up against a signature field again this week. Torrey Pines South is a tough course, and JT is generally solid on tough tracks, so I'm expecting a solid showing this week.      

THE NEXT TIER

Ludvig Aberg (25-1)

This is really just a value bet. Aberg has no form to speak of because he's WD from his previous start and the last time he played four rounds, he was dry heaving on the course. A couple weeks removed from his most recent WD, and we have to assume he's healthy enough to compete this week. His track record here is okay, with one top-10 in two starts, but again, this is more about the fact that you probably won't see odds like this again on Aberg, especially if he plays well this week, so you might as well jump at the opportunity to get 25-1 while Scheffler isn't quite himself and Schauffele isn't in the field.                       

Sungjae Im (35-1)

A bit of a nice jump in the odds to the next group of golfers, which includes Im. Im has a solid track record on this course with three top-10s in his past four tries at Torrey Pines. His form isn't the greatest coming into this week, but he's only three weeks removed from a T4 on this course, so I have to assume getting back out to Torrey Pines is going to improve his form for the better. One thing that is a little concerning is that Im has not won on the PGA Tour since 2022.

Jason Day (45-1)           

The last pick of this middle pack was a tough one. I initially thought of going with someone like Rasmus Hojgaard as he's played well this season and specifically this past week, but then I decided to go with someone that had more experience on this course and more experience against the top players. That left me with two options, Day or Tony Finau. While both have tremendous track records here, Day has shown the better form to this point in the season, so he's the play.  

LONG SHOTS

Thomas Detry (50-1)    

We all know the drill here. Golfer picks up a huge win and goes one of two ways. Which way will he go? The complacent route or the hair on fire route? This isn't to say that I think Detry is going to light up the PGA Tour now that's he's got his first win, but there's always a chance that he goes on a little run and while I wouldn't take him in a OAD pool this week, a win ticket might be worth a shot.  

Harris English (90-1)    

I thought about putting Wyndham Clark in this spot at 70-1 as he continues to get no respect from the odds makers, but I couldn't get past his pedestrian record here.  That and I'm sure you're getting tired of seeing him listed in the longshots section. As for English, he's got plenty going for him this week. He won here a few weeks ago, albeit against a much weaker field, but a stronger field won't intimidate English as he's won plenty against strong fields. A double at Torrey Pines is certainly unlikely, but that's why we're getting 90-1.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Justin Thomas – The only potential issue here is that JT has probably been used quite often this season already, so we're at the point where not many owners have him available. With that said, it's so early in the season that there should be enough OAD players out there that haven't used him, which will drive up ownership levels. Morikawa is another option here, and possibly McIlroy, but I can't imagine many will be on Scheffler this week.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Sungjae Im – I'll be surprised to see a cluster of ownership outside of JT and Morikawa this week as no one really sticks out in this second tier of golfers. Im hasn't played great lately, but he's got the track record here. That's the case for a lot of guys this week. Jason Day probably has a better case this week, but some OAD players won't go that far down the list to pick a player in signature events.                                                                                                                       

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Justin Rose – As previously mentioned, there are some owners that won't go this far down the list for a signature event, which means that Rose will likely be an afterthought this week in OAD leagues. Here's the thing though, in the most recent signature event, Rose finished third, earning over $1.1 million. He's also won on this course before, so he knows how to get around Torrey Pines. It's certainly a risk, but he might be worth a shot this week.         

Buyer Beware: Daniel Berger – Berger is getting closer every week to the guy that we recognize from a few years ago. He's coming off his best showing since his return from injury and the future looks bright. However, this week is going to be tough for Berger, as not only is he facing a top-notch field, but he's historically struggled at Torrey Pines. Berger has made the cut in just two of seven starts at the Farmers and while some of that might be attributed to struggles on the North Course, I think the problem is with Torrey Pines as a whole. The comeback continues next week though.

This Week: Rory McIlroy – It's really against my style to go this big this early, but I've got my reasons. First, it's clear that McIlroy is on top of his game right now, that might not be the case later in the season. Second, it is without a doubt easier to win a signature event than a major, especially for McIlroy, who is trying to break his decade-long winless streak at the majors. The pressure makes it a lot more difficult to win majors for McIlroy. Third, the field is much weaker than at a major. No Schauffele this week along with all the LIV guys absent and let's throw in that Scheffler isn't quite himself yet. I'll be kicking myself if this doesn't pay off, but I think this is the best time to use McIlroy.                          

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Rory McIlroy ($12,500)
Middle Range: Jason Day ($10,400)
Lower Range: Justin Rose ($8,200)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Taylor Pendrith – I'll start by saying that it's going to take some work to miss the cut this week. The top 50 and ties move onto the weekend, which leaves at most 22 players outside the cutline. Pendrith should have no problem making the weekend as his form is solid right now and he's made all four of his cuts at the Farmers.                  

Previous Results