Weekly PGA Preview: Arnold Palmer Invitational

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill for another edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

As I sat down to watch the end of the coverage of the Cognizant Classic this past Friday, I thought to myself, "wow, they are really playing up this moving cutline". I did enjoy the attention to the cutline, I can't say why, but it's always something that has interested me, even though in most instances the players vying to stay alive have little to no chance of making an impact on the weekend -- in most instances. I certainly didn't expect this past weekend to be one of the exceptions to the rule, but as luck would have, we all got to witness an anomaly. 

With about an hour left in the coverage this past Friday, it became clear that 5-under would be the cutline and even though there were several players on the course at the time, the chances of the 4-unders making it were dying fast. Joe Highsmith needed only a par on the final hole to make the cut, which, considering it was a par-5 seemed reasonable. Things got tricky however when his fourth shot left a tricky five-foot putt to save par. Alas, Highsmith made the putt, undeterred by his enormous hat and the rest is history.

It's certainly rare to make the cut on the number and go on to win the tournament. According to a tweet from Jason Sobel, only three players in the past 15 years have made the cut on the line and went on to win, that's 3/665 events.

So, as it turns out, there is good reason to pay attention to the cut line. Okay, so the odds tell us this won't happen again for a while, but I'll still be paying attention most Friday afternoons.

Okay, onto this week and yes, the big boys are back! As one that invested heavily into Scottie Scheffler this year, it's time for him to make a move, but it won't be easy as Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg are near the top of their games and Xander Schauffele makes his return as well. This should be fun.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

 Scottie Scheffler shot a final round 66 on his way to five-stroke victory over Wyndham Clark.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (16-5) 

Ahh, we're back to normal with Scheffler atop the odds chart. It's interesting though, Scheffler has yet to win this season, and he really hasn't been in position to win either, yet he's still the clear favorite this week. If he fails to win this week, I think we might finally see some more reasonable odds in the near future. I say "more" reasonable", because without a long drought, we aren't going to get reasonable odds for a long time. As for this week, Scheffler is the defending champ, and he's finished inside the top-4 in three consecutive starts here. His form may not be at peak, but I could see that changing this week.   

Rory McIlroy (15-2)

McIlroy had a ton of momentum after his win at Pebble Beach, but he failed to parlay that into anything special at the Genesis, where he had a strong track record. The question now is, where is his form? He could only manage a T17 at a place where he had a great track record and now he returns to Bay Hill, where he also has a strong track record. McIlroy has struggled in recent years with expectations, and he always seems to play his best when we aren't expecting it, so maybe after the let down at the Genesis, we'll see his best form again.  

Ludvig Aberg (16-1)

And we have a new shooter in the top-3. Aberg is in the top-3 this week for two reasons. First, he won the most recent signature event, which could be a harbinger of things to come if he's as good as we all think he is. Second, Xander Schauffele usually holds down this spot, but he's returning after a long break and quite frankly, we have no idea how he'll play this week. As for Aberg, his track record here is neither good nor bad, he's played here twice and finished in the top-25 both times, but he's never been a factor here. With that big win from a few weeks ago under his belt however, we might see a new version of Aberg, one that can stare down the best in the world and come away with a win. These odds aren't great, but if he wins again, say goodbye to double-digit win odds.   

THE NEXT TIER

Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)

Quite honestly, there isn't a lot to like in the mid-range this week as nobody from 20-1 to 33-1 has a solid track record at this event. Fleetwood come fairly close however as he's had his moments here and his form is pretty good. One thing Fleetwood has going for him, is familiarity with the course as he's played this event eight times. He's managed to make it into the top-10 in three of those starts, so we know he's got some upside here. His form looks pretty solid as well as he's coming off a top-5 at the Genesis a couple weeks back.    

Patrick Cantlay (30-1)

As I just mentioned, there are no perfect candidates in the mid-range this week, so you'll have to stretch your standards a bit. I'd be surprised if the winner doesn't emerge from the favorites, but if we are to look at someone who might be able to get out in front of them, Cantlay is a candidate. Cantlay has only played this event twice, but he did post a T4 in 2023, so we know he can get around this course. His form is pretty solid entering the week as well, with top-5s in two of his past three starts.                       

Tony Finau (60-1)           

Finau doesn't have much a track record here, he's played this event five times and has just one top-25 to show for his efforts, but his form is trending the right direction entering this week. Finau finished in the top-15 at Pebble Beach, and he cracked the top-5 at the Genesis. Finau has always been a streaky golfer, so if he's starting to feel it, this might be a good time to jump on board.    

LONG SHOTS

Matt Fitzpatrick (65-1) 

I've listed a lot of guys with good to great form and now I'm switching tactics. Fitzpatrick has almost no form entering this week. A top-25 at the Sentry is his best result to date and he's finished no better than T48 in his past three starts. So why even consider him? Well, these are longshots, right, so there aren't many longshots that are bullet proof on paper. Fitzpatrick is intriguing because of his track record here. While he did miss the cut here this past year, prior to that, he had a stretch of five consecutive top-15s, including a runner-up in 2019. If any venue can get him right, it's this one.  

Daniel Berger (70-1)     

I'm going with the "week after" theory which posits that the player that let everyone down the week before, suddenly finds his game in his next start. It's not a prefect theory, in fact, it probably works as often as any other theory surrounding golfers, which is not often, but I've seen it happen on several occasions, so I'm going with it. Berger was trending in the right direction heading into the Cognizant Classic and he even got off to a strong start, but he could not hold on through the weekend, eventually landing in 25th-place. With that said, he was pretty strong for the first three rounds, and I still think a win is coming at some point this season.   

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Scottie Scheffler – It's finally time, you can now freely use Scheffler if you wish. I was thinking it would be wise to wait for him to win first, but I think he's close enough. Besides, you aren't going to find a better course to use him as his track record here is as good as it gets. Yes, The PLAYERS is right around the corner, with the largest purse of the season, and he's won it two years running, but that event is still very quirky and weird things happen, which often prevent and consistency from year to year. I think he's a better play this week and as we discussed previously, his chances of winning are better at a signature event than at a major.   

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Tommy Fleetwood –Scheffler should be a popular pick this week, but I'm not so sure about McIlroy and Aberg. As mentioned previously, there aren't a lot of enticing options past the favorites this week, but I have a feeling that Fleetwood might get some love. His form is good and even if he doesn't win, he should be in position to cash a big check. 

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Daniel Berger – I'll reiterate that I think the winner comes from the top-3 on the odds chart, so I wouldn't recommend looking this far down the list, but if you do want to take a chance and take someone who will likely be off the radar at a signature event, then Berger is you guy. Berger will have a hard time winning this week, but if he can play like he has for most of the season, then he could land in the top-10, which would be a nice check for a longshot.

Buyer Beware: Collin Morikawa – Morikawa started the season strong with a runner-up at the Sentry, but his past two starts have just been okay. He finished T17 at Pebble and at the Genesis, but remember, those are smaller fields, so it seems that his game is not quite where it was in early January. Now he returns to a course where he's had little success over the years (two MCs, in four starts). Morikawa can turn it around on a dime, but I don't think he gets it done this week.   

This Week: Scottie Scheffler – Anytime you use your Scheffler chip, it feels risky and not using him at The PLAYERS is going to potentially change your entire season, but I have to stick with my gut here. Scheffler is clearly the best play this week and that will also be the case at The PLAYERS, the difference is, if you take him this week, you'll have maybe 25% of your league on the same side, whereas at The PLAYERS, you might have 50% on your side. This is the separation spot, if he wins here and not at The PLAYERS, then you've got a leg up on your league. If the opposite happens, then obviously it's a long haul to get back into the mix. I'd rather make a strategical play and be wrong, than just flow with the pack the entire season and never realize where it went wrong. If I'm wrong this week, then I know I have to take chances the rest of the way, which I'm fine with.                                                  

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Scottie Scheffler ($13,200)
Middle Range: Wyndham Clark ($9,900)
Lower Range: Harris English ($8,000)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Keegan Bradley – It's a top-50 cut again this week, so you'll have to be particularly off this week to miss the cut. Bradley has managed to make the cut at this event in 12/13 tries and most of those made cuts came in full field events. Bradley has yet to miss a cut this year, so missing one in which such a small number of players get cut, would be quite the surprise.