This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
It was just a week ago when I wrote that there are any number of paths a player can take to his first victory on the PGA Tour, but most often, that path is riddled with both physical and mental errors. Fabian Gomez, however, seemed impervious to such errors last Sunday as he not only captured his first win on the PGA Tour, but did so in style, blowing away the field. In all fairness, he didn't have the likes of Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose breathing down his neck, but to be honest, I'm not sure it would have mattered as Gomez was locked in, mentally and physically all day. The win changes everything for Gomez, who's now exempt for two years and will gain entrance to the PGA Championship later this year and the Masters next year, but one event he won?t be playing is the U.S. Open this week.
Speaking of which, it's U.S. Open week! The U.S. Open is a beast unto itself, at least handicapping it is. There isn't a lot to go on outside of your gut instinct on how a golfer is swinging at the moment. There's no course history like there is at Augusta, and even though Open layouts are unlike most we see in a given year, there aren't necessarily similarities like there are with the British Open courses, so you are essentially trying to get a feel for each player's mental and physical state heading into the week. And that
It was just a week ago when I wrote that there are any number of paths a player can take to his first victory on the PGA Tour, but most often, that path is riddled with both physical and mental errors. Fabian Gomez, however, seemed impervious to such errors last Sunday as he not only captured his first win on the PGA Tour, but did so in style, blowing away the field. In all fairness, he didn't have the likes of Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose breathing down his neck, but to be honest, I'm not sure it would have mattered as Gomez was locked in, mentally and physically all day. The win changes everything for Gomez, who's now exempt for two years and will gain entrance to the PGA Championship later this year and the Masters next year, but one event he won?t be playing is the U.S. Open this week.
Speaking of which, it's U.S. Open week! The U.S. Open is a beast unto itself, at least handicapping it is. There isn't a lot to go on outside of your gut instinct on how a golfer is swinging at the moment. There's no course history like there is at Augusta, and even though Open layouts are unlike most we see in a given year, there aren't necessarily similarities like there are with the British Open courses, so you are essentially trying to get a feel for each player's mental and physical state heading into the week. And that brings up my next point -- nothing is more important this week than mental strength. The U.S. Open tests the body, but the strain it puts on the mind is hard to measure. Unfortunately, we've yet to develop a statistic that measures mental strength. We may think we know who's strong between the ears, but until they are in the thick of it, we never can tell. I have some hunches heading into the week, just like you, but one bad shot could send all of our hunches out the window, which makes picking the right golfers that much sweeter.
This week: U.S. Open - Chambers Bay - University Place, Wash.
Last Year: Martin Kaymer shot a final-round 72 on his way to an eight-stroke victory over Erik Compton and Rickie Fowler.
Players to Consider
Jordan Spieth
If Spieth were to pull off a win this week, he'd accomplish what few have done in the history of the game, win the Masters and the Open. His form doesn't appear to be quite as strong as it was a couple months ago at Augusta, but something tells me Spieth has the ability to turn it up a notch for the majors.
Phil Mickelson
I'm playing my "gut" early as Mickelson is certainly not one of the favorites, yet he looks to be rounding into form entering this week. Mickelson might not be the player he was a few years ago, but every once in a while he shows that form. I have a feeling we'll see that form this week.
Justin Rose
Rose may be the best pick on paper this week as he's near top form and is a former U.S. Open champion. Rose lost in a playoff two weeks ago, and though he wasn't able to finish off David Lingmerth, he looked pretty locked in. His U.S. Open win a couple years ago will only help him if he's in contention on the weekend.
Rory McIlroy
If you are wondering if there is meaning in McIlroy being fourth on the list, there is. If the U.S. Open were held the week after the Masters, McIlroy might be first on the list, but as you know, he's had some issues the last month. My guess is, he'll be just fine, but on paper at least, he doesn't have everything going for him this week and yet, he's still the best player in the world.
Dustin Johnson
Johnson has been hit or miss at the U.S. Open over the years, but he might be a better player now than he's ever been, so there's reason to believe he'll play well this week. Johnson finished T4 at the Open last year, so at minimum, we know that he can get around a USGA layout.
Players to Avoid
Jason Day
Be it injury or something else, my bet is injury, Day just isn't the same player he was at the beginning of the year. His track record at the U.S. Open and other majors for that matter is hard to ignore, but this doesn't seem to be the same player that posted all of those top finishes the last few years.
Tiger Woods
Tiger struggled mightily at the Memorial a couple weeks ago, and that is a course that he's handled with ease over the years. Now he's playing what might be the toughest course he'll see all year. His wayward drives are going to get him in a lot of trouble this week.
Adam Scott
Scott is really struggling this year, well, relatively anyhow. He's making cuts, but he's not accomplishing much on the weekends. The addition of Steve Williams on the bag this week could certainly help, but Scott doesn't appear ready to take down another major just yet.
Bubba Watson
Watson has fared well on a couple USGA layouts over the years, but for the most part, he's struggled to work his way around the U.S. Open venues. That should come as no surprise as accuracy off the tee trumps distance at the Open. Watson's biggest problem this week will be between the ears however as he's been known to lose interest if things aren't going his way.
Zach Johnson
With his ball striking and accuracy off the tee, you'd think Johnson's game was perfect for the U.S. Open setups, but for some reason, he's never played well at the Open. Johnson has missed the cut in five of his 11 U.S. Open starts, his best finish was a T30 in 2011.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Camilo Villegas (T18) - $81,000; Season - $3,654,977
This week: Dustin Johnson - Johnson is the only player in my top 5 I have not used this week, so he's the pick. Johnson has a history of being unpredictable, but he's been pretty reliable this season, and I expect that version of DJ to show up this week.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 3,503
Rank: 10,268
This Week:
Group A: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson
Group B: Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth
Group C: Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Camilo Villegas (T18); Streak - 2
This week: Jordan Spieth - Although I'm expecting DJ to play well this week, he's still not as reliable as Spieth is at this stage. When it comes to majors, you don't want to take any chances in a format like this, so go with a reliable big gun.
