Phoenix Open Preview: Look No Further than Matsuyama

The PGA Tour leaves the comfy confines of La Jolla this week and travels to the frat party known as the Phoenix Open. Unfortunately, most of the high-end talent that played the Farmers will not be present this week, but there's still plenty to get excited about. If nothing else, the scene on the 17th hole is must-see TV, even if the guys who are "only golfers" are playing half a world away.

This week: Phoenix Open - TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Ariz.

Last Year: Gary Woodland shot a final-round 64 on his way to a playoff victory over Chez Reavie.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (7-1)

Rahm was the betting favorite last week, took the 18-hole lead and hung around until mid-round Sunday, but he never seriously threatened eventual winner Justin Rose. Rahm has three starts here, and his worst finish was a T16 in 2017. His form has also been good lately, which means he should again be in the mix come Sunday. Should he be the favorite? No, but I'll get to that in a bit.

Justin Thomas (9-1)

We've yet to see J.T. at his best this season, but we know he's always just one shot away from turning on the after-burners, and when he's at his best few can keep up with him. That said, it's a little curious that he's the second favorite this week as he's missed the cut in two of his four starts here and has never cracked the top 10. Anytime Thomas tees it up, he's in the mix, but he's a little overvalued as the second favorite.

Hideki Matsuyama (12-1)

I was shocked not to see Matsuyama atop the odds list this week. He might not win, but he's clearly the favorite this week. Matsuyama withdrew from this event last year with a wrist injury, but leading into last year's event, Matsuyama was the two-time defending champion. Prior to those two wins, he could only manage a T2 and a T4. When healthy he's finished in the top 5 in four of four starts here – that's pretty good. His form is also pretty good as he was in the mix until late Sunday at the Farmers.

MID-TIER GOLFERS

Gary Woodland (18-1)

Woodland is the defending champ, but he's not been automatic here like Matsuyama, which is why his odds are more appealing this week. Woodland's track record here is all over the place, with several finishes outside the top 25, but he has made the cut in seven of nine starts. His form has been solid this year as he's posted two top-10s in three starts. He started strong with a runner-up at the Sentry, only to post an 80th-place finish at the Sony. However, he got back on track last week with a top-10 at the Farmers.

Phil Mickelson (20-1)

Mickelson has won this event three times, most recently in 2013, but even when not winning, Mickelson usually manages to play well here. Mickelson has finished in the top 20 in each of his last three starts at this event and considering he's coming off a runner-up at the Desert Classic, there's no reason to think he'll fare any worse than top 20 this week. Although he was unable to close a couple weeks ago, he certainly has enough game to win this week.

Matt Kuchar (25-1)

Kuchar proved he still has enough game to win on the PGA Tour a couple weeks ago, but does he have enough in the tank to be the Kuchar we've become accustomed to over the last decade? It didn't look like it last season, but who knows, he's already posted a win and we aren't even to February yet. Kuchar's track record is pretty strong, with three top-10s in his last six starts here, including a one in each of the last two years.

LONGSHOTS

Bubba Watson (40-1)

Watson came out of the gates on fire last season, and to this point it doesn't look like he'll be the same player he was last season. But the talent is still there and he's capable of winning in certain spots. This is one of those spots, as though he hasn't yet won here, he has posted two runner-up finishes. Watson has not been at the top of his game for months now, but it's not often you can get a golfer of Watson's caliber at a price like this at a place where he's had success.

Talor Gooch (80-1)

It's generally the time that everyone realizes a new guy is playing well when he decides to revert to the form that made him an unknown in the first place, but what the heck, he's 80-1! Gooch has been on fire the last couple weeks, posting a solo-4th at the Desert Classic and a solo-3rd last week at the Farmers. With a little less high-end competition this week, who knows, maybe he can finish runner-up or even win.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Optimal pick: Hideki Matsuyama - If you got creative and faded Hideki last year in this spot, congrats, you got lucky. You won't be so fortunate this year, unless lightning strikes twice and he injures himself again. Matsuyama is simply locked in on this course, and after last week's strong showing, there's no reason to think he'll finish outside the top 5 this week.

Buyer beware: Justin Thomas - I hate fading Thomas. He's one of the few golfers who really scares me when I don't use him, but there are simply many better spots to use him this season. In fact, though I'm not a big fan of saving guys for majors (I think you should use them in the optimal spot, major or not), J.T. is one guy I would love to have late in the year at the PGA Championship.

Last week: Tiger Woods (T20) - $79,804; Season - $2,541,299

This week: Hideki Matsuyama - The only conceivable reason to not take Matsuyama this week is if you are in a league where the top guy has managed to pick three winners already and you are already in major catch-up mode. Otherwise, just take Matsuyama with the realization that you won't lose ground this week. Will he be highly owned? Yes. Will this week be less exciting, knowing that most of your pool has Matsuyama? Yes. Do you want to fall behind because you got clever with your pick this week and faded Matsuyama? No.

FANDUEL PICKS

High/Mid/Low: Hideki Matsuyama ($11,800)/Matt Kuchar ($10,700)/Talor Gooch ($8,700)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Charles Howell III - (T20); Streak - 3

This week: Hideki Matsuyama - No reason to outsmart yourself here either. Another injury is the only possible way that Matsuyama misses the cut this week. I could understand if you went a different route in this format, however, as Matsuyama could have some value down the road, but when is he going to be more of a lock to make the cut? Exactly, just use him in this format as well.