PGA Tour Stats Review: Masters Tournament

It's finally here. Masters Week! It might be the best week all year in golf, but for those in fantasy leagues and pools, it can be one of the most nerve-racking. There's 89 golfers playing -- Fred Couples withdrew Monday -- and a large majority have a legitimate chance of taking home a title. Here's our stats analysis.

My two picks this week are Rickie Fowler and Danny Willett. I just think Fowler is overdue, and the overall strength of his game -- second in greens in regulation, sixth in strokes gained-tee to green, 27th in strokes gained-putting on the PGA Tour -- makes him a prime contender to win this week. We'll get to Willett's strengths in a bit.

First of all, my Twitter buddy Jake Nichols did an absolutely sensational stats write-up for Golf.com. He's big on proximity to the hole as a key stat this week, and I agree that it's a key one to look at. On tough greens like this, being able to leave yourself the shortest distance to the hole for birdie or par (if you miss the green) can be clutch. Adam Scott leads that stat amongst players in the field.

Another related stat to that is three-putt avoidance. The leaders of that stat playing in the Masters:

Jordan Spieth - 1.28 percent
Graeme McDowell - 1.50 percent
Daniel Berger - 1.61 percent
Kevin Kisner - 1.70 percent
Phil Mickelson - 1.71 percent

Obviously the name that jumps out here is Mickelson, whose game has been trending all year in the right direction and has won the green jacket three times backed by a strong putter. But I want to focus on Kisner. He's got a sturdy, solid game that I believe can contend this week if he gets everything in order. He's ranked eighth in driving accuracy, 26th in greens in regulation, 38th in strokes gained-putting and 22nd in strokes gained-total this season on the PGA Tour.

My next piece of recommended reading is this Mark Broadie tweet (he's the guy who invented all the strokes gained stats) about the various strokes gained rankings for the top 20 players in the world:

OWGR top 20 strokes gained: World No. 1 Jason Day is ranked 3 in SG putting. Thanks @FrankNobiloGC for suggesting. pic.twitter.com/3IPmlSRIdQ

— Mark Broadie (@MarkBroadie) April 4, 2016

This is a remarkable graphic, and there are a couple things I want to point out here:

1. Everyone talks about Jason Day's long game but look at his short game stats -- 15th in strokes gained-short game and third in strokes gained-putting this season on the PGA Tour. Yes, winning at Bay Hill and the Match Play will help your stats but a) this doesn't even include the match play, and b) those are remarkable figures for a guy that usually gets noticed for his 350-plus yard drives. Around Augusta National, this will do you a lot of good. There's a reason he's contended here.

2. As mentioned, I love Danny Willett this week. Willett is the lesser known quantity on that list of the top 20 in the world. However, his finishes in upper echelon events speak for themselves. Going back to last season: T12 at Doral (a World Golf Championships event), T29 at Bay Hill, third at the Match Play (a WGC), T6 at the Open Championship, T3 in Shanghai (a WGC), T3 at Doral (a WGC), T22 at Tampa and T28 two weeks ago in Austin (at the Match Play, a WGC). And arguably most important: his wife had a healthy baby last week, meaning there's no chance he'll have to withdraw from the Masters, a prospect that did loom entering last week. The icing on the cake: he's 20th in strokes gained-approach shots, third in strokes gained-short game and ninth in stroke gained-putting. You need a complete game to win at Augusta National Golf Club, and Willett has shown that in his PGA Tour appearances in 2015 and 2016.

3. Jordan Spieth has complained lately that his game isn't sharp. One bone of contention has been loose iron shots (he's had a miss to the right lately) and the stats back it up, as he's 74th in strokes gained-approach shots. You'll be able to tell very early in the week if he's going to contend. If he's aggravated and hitting shots off line, it's not a good sign. He had eight water balls last week in Houston. That's very un-Jordan like.

4. Adam Scott is a sexy pick, and for right reasons, and is another example of how sometimes the stats don't tell the whole truth. Everyone knows his tee-to-green prowess, but stats-wise his short game and putting ranks (147th and 36th) may make you want to bet against him at Augusta. But our eyes tell us that he's been putting great with the short putter in 2016, right? That's what I would go with this week, especially with Steve Williams on the bag.

As I put together a couple possible pool teams this week, I wrote down these names: Spieth, Day, Rory McIlroy, Scott, Fowler, Willett, Paul Casey, Mickelson, Emiliano Grillo, Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Branden Grace and Justin Thomas. For various reasons I all think these people could win this week and wouldn't think twice about putting them in a pool. Thomas and Grillo are the real wild cards this week: insanely talented players playing their first Masters. Do they pull a Spieth in 2014 and contend or have a huge learning curve and a take a while to find their form? If it's the former, watch out. Both, but especially Thomas in my opinion, have the potential to be lethal on this golf course if they make the right decisions.