Northern Trust Open Preview: To Bubba or Not to Bubba

Northern Trust Open Preview: To Bubba or Not to Bubba

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

If you weren't paying attention prior to the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, you probably are unaware that the 54-hole leader was Jim Furyk. Even for those who haven't paid close attention to the PGA Tour the last couple years, Furyk's story is well known. He was one of the best players in the world for more than a decade, but now seemingly has lost the ability to close on a Sunday.

Fear not, though, fans of Furyk, brighter days might be ahead thanks to apathy. Yes, apathy. Often the death knell for a professional sports team, apathy actually can work in favor of a professional golfer. Golfers often play their best when everyone is looking the other way. There are exceptions, of course, but most would rather come in under the radar than deal with massive expectations.

So how does this work in Furyk's favor? I mentioned that if you weren't paying attention, you may have missed the bit about Furyk again squandering another lead. That's because he wasn't the headline from Sunday's final round -- the headline was Brandt Snedeker. We've come to the point where everyone expects Furyk to crumble in the final round, and with that comes less pressure because no one expects him to win. For years it seemed as if Furyk was immune to pressure, but after failing to come through in the clutch time after time the last few years, it seems clear that the pressure is getting to

If you weren't paying attention prior to the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, you probably are unaware that the 54-hole leader was Jim Furyk. Even for those who haven't paid close attention to the PGA Tour the last couple years, Furyk's story is well known. He was one of the best players in the world for more than a decade, but now seemingly has lost the ability to close on a Sunday.

Fear not, though, fans of Furyk, brighter days might be ahead thanks to apathy. Yes, apathy. Often the death knell for a professional sports team, apathy actually can work in favor of a professional golfer. Golfers often play their best when everyone is looking the other way. There are exceptions, of course, but most would rather come in under the radar than deal with massive expectations.

So how does this work in Furyk's favor? I mentioned that if you weren't paying attention, you may have missed the bit about Furyk again squandering another lead. That's because he wasn't the headline from Sunday's final round -- the headline was Brandt Snedeker. We've come to the point where everyone expects Furyk to crumble in the final round, and with that comes less pressure because no one expects him to win. For years it seemed as if Furyk was immune to pressure, but after failing to come through in the clutch time after time the last few years, it seems clear that the pressure is getting to him, which is why the next time, when no one expects it, might be the time Furyk finally seals the deal.

This week:
Northern Trust Open - Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, Calif.

Last Year:
Bubba Watson shot a final-round 64 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Dustin Johnson.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Bubba Watson

For those inclined to save Watson for the Masters, this obviously isn't the place to use him. But if you have someone else in mind for Augusta, then this is the place to use Watson. Bubba is the defending champion, and his game looks like it's in good shape entering this week.

J.B. Holmes

When he was near the top of his game, before the last couple years, Holmes fared well here. From 2008-2012, Holmes finished no worse than T12, and considering he's once again near the top of his game, he's certainly on the short list of possible contenders this week.

Bill Haas

Haas enters the 2015 NTO on a streak of four consecutive top-25 finishes here, including a win in 2012. Haas might be past his most recent hot streak, but if there's anything left in the tank this week, he'll be a factor.

Dustin Johnson

Any concerns about the state of DJ's game were put to rest last week at the AT&T when he posted a top-5 finish. A good showing last week came as no surprise, though, as his track record at Pebble is spectacular. While his track record at Riviera is not quite as good, it's still pretty solid, so using DJ this week is not out of the question.

Charl Schwartzel

The only reason Schwartzel is at the bottom of the list instead of the top is because his track record here is limited. He's only played here twice, but he's finished in the top-5 both times.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Robert Allenby

Allenby has a strong track record here, but most of his production came years ago when he was at the top of his game. His results the last few years have been erratic, and there are simply too many good options this week to reach for someone like Allenby.

Luke Donald

Donald has fared pretty well here over the years, including a runner-up and third-place finish. But again, there is a lot of firepower in the field this week, and Donald simply isn't the player we thought he was a few years back.

Rory Sabbatini

Sabbatini had a nice run here about a decade ago, but his results the last five years have been disastrous. Sabbatini enters the week on a streak of three consecutive missed cuts here, and he's also coming off a missed cut last week at Pebble.

Padraig Harrington

Harrington's history at Pebble made him a decent sleeper option last week, but he rewarded those brave enough to choose him with an MC at the AT&T. This week, his track record at Riviera excludes him from consideration. He played well here a while back, but recently his play here has been awful.

John Merrick

Merrick won this event just two years ago, but it's been rough sailing since. He's off to a horrible start this season, and it's going to take a minor miracle for Merrick to snap out of his slump this week. Merrick has missed his last four cuts and six of his last seven.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Jimmy Walker (T21) - $63,835; Season - $936,795

This week:
Bubba Watson - Watson is certainly a good pick at Augusta, but I've already got someone else in mind for the Masters, so I'm going to burn Bubba here in the hopes that he can repeat.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 820
Rank: 38,055

This Week:

Group A: Bubba Watson, J.B. Holmes

Group B:
Jimmy Walker, Dustin Johnson, K.J. Choi, Jordan Spieth

Group C:
Charles Schwartzel, Keegan Bradley

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Jimmy Walker (T21); Streak - 6

This week:
K.J. Choi - As much as a like Watson this week, his track record here is a little sketchy, so I'll go with Choi in his format as he's a perfect 14-14 in cuts made at this event.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Greg Vara
Vara is the lead golf writer at RotoWire. He was named the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year in 2005 and 2013. He also picks college football games against the spread in his "College Capper" article.
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