This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Fantasy golf has been around since the beginning of time, well, actually, it's been around for about 20 years -- at least in the mainstream that is. In all that time, players have learned one simple rule -- momentum matters. At least, we think it does. It's one of just a few metrics that we can use to determine which players to choose on a weekly basis. So how are we supposed to respond when a guy like Ben Martin misses the cut at the Frys.com Open, finishing ahead of exactly one golfer and proceeds to win the following week at the Shriners Open? The short answer is to not overreact. Every rule has its exception and these anomalies are going to pop up from time to time. Anyone in the midst of fantasy football right now can attest, weird things happen every week. The long answer is this: it's golf and this is the way golf is -- it's the most difficult sport to predict on a weekly basis.
That's not to say that it's hopeless, though. Those few metrics I spoke of earlier, well, those can be very useful. Course history, recent play, injuries and so on; all those factors are pieces to the puzzle. It's just that this puzzle is always going to be hard to solve. Think of it as the ultimate challenge. Calvin Johnson is always going to perform, Rory McIlroy is not. It's just the nature of the game. Ben Martin didn't do anything
Fantasy golf has been around since the beginning of time, well, actually, it's been around for about 20 years -- at least in the mainstream that is. In all that time, players have learned one simple rule -- momentum matters. At least, we think it does. It's one of just a few metrics that we can use to determine which players to choose on a weekly basis. So how are we supposed to respond when a guy like Ben Martin misses the cut at the Frys.com Open, finishing ahead of exactly one golfer and proceeds to win the following week at the Shriners Open? The short answer is to not overreact. Every rule has its exception and these anomalies are going to pop up from time to time. Anyone in the midst of fantasy football right now can attest, weird things happen every week. The long answer is this: it's golf and this is the way golf is -- it's the most difficult sport to predict on a weekly basis.
That's not to say that it's hopeless, though. Those few metrics I spoke of earlier, well, those can be very useful. Course history, recent play, injuries and so on; all those factors are pieces to the puzzle. It's just that this puzzle is always going to be hard to solve. Think of it as the ultimate challenge. Calvin Johnson is always going to perform, Rory McIlroy is not. It's just the nature of the game. Ben Martin didn't do anything extraordinary last week. He just reminded us that golf is the most unpredictable of sports.
This week: McGladrey Classic - Seaside Course, Sea Island, G
Last Year: Chris Kirk shot a final-round 66 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Scott Brown.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Webb Simpson
Simpson is one of the few big names who loves to play during the fall season and his track record here reflects that. Simpson's worst finish in three starts at this event was a T12 in 2010, his best a runner-up the following season. Simpson is also coming off a top-5 last week at the Shriners.
Martin Laird
After struggling a bit last season, Laird seems determined to get off to a good start this season. This week will mark his third start of the fall season (of three events), and he's already earned top-20s in his first two starts.
Matt Kuchar
Kuchar has fared pretty well at this event over the years -- three top-25s in three starts. But this pick is based more on the quality of player that Kuchar is in relation to the rest of the field.
Harris English
English has a decent track record here, two top-30s in two tries, but this pick is based more on the way he played last week. More specifically, the way he closed. After an opening-round 71 last week, English followed that up with rounds of 68-66-67.
Russell Knox
There simply aren't many players in the field this week with strong track records here, so the next place to look are those that have played well recently. Enter Knox, who finished solo third last week at the Shriners.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Ben Martin
As proven last week, momentum, or lack thereof means little to Martin, so the fact that he enters this week's event with a lot of momentum means little to his prospects. That and the fact that he's a young guy who's coming off a big win never helps the cause.
Justin Hicks
Hicks hasn't made a cut since mid-August. While he looks to have potential, Hicks is mired in an awful slump, a slump that might take weeks to work out. It's the kind of slump that needs an offseason to go away.
Michael Thompson
Thompson's track record here is solid, as he has two top-10s in two starts. His recent play, however, has been awful. Thompson hasn't made a cut since mid-August and has failed to make the weekend in two starts this fall.
Brian Davis
Davis is a good player who simply can't figure out this track. In four starts here, Davis has fared no better than T79. He's also missed two cuts here and WD in 2012.
Tommy Gainey
"Two-gloves" won this event in 2012, but he was a different player then. He was simply playing well at the time, something which he is not doing now. Gainey has missed the cut in two of his three appearances here as well.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Ryan Moore (MC) - $0; Season - $168,000
This week: Webb Simpson - I hate to burn a big name during fall, and while Simpson is not in the upper-upper class of the PGA Tour, he's pretty close. That said, he looks like a solid choice this week.
YAHOO PICKS
Yahoo's fantasy game does not use the fall season, beginning in January for the traditional start of the PGA Tour season.
Last Season:
Points: 5,516
Rank: 15,723
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Ryan Moore (MC); Streak - 0
This week: Russell Knox - While I'm going big with my one-and-done pick this week, I'll scale it back a bit with my survivor pick and take Knox, who should have no trouble making the cut this week after finishing in the top 3 last week.
